HMS Glorious with full CAG and CAP?

143 torpedo planes, none of which were carrying torpedoes when they attacked. Most were carrying anti-personnel munitions, some were even carrying depth charges. A lot of planes made attacks unarmed just to distract the Japanese. According to some sources the planes rearmed at make shift airfields on land but I doubt those fields had anti-ship weapons. Some may have been able to get torpedoes or armor piercing bombs from the carriers but I doubt that many. Remember, the last thing these air groups expected to be doing was attacking heavy cruisers and battleships so they weren't armed for it.

Even 20 Swordfish armed for the job against two battleships that have never experienced air attack might finish one of them off or at least damage it enough to allow the battleships to close and get her.

Another comparison is Taranto vs. Pearl Harbor. A much smaller FAA strike force (20 aircraft instead of 360 and yes I know a lot of the Japanese planes were attacking the airfields) still did considerable damage.

I have real reservations about a 20 swordfish strike against two German capital ships.

Of the attacks on solo Bismarch, in open waters (not stationary!!), Victorious had a 1/9 success and Ark Royal 2/15 (ignoring the strike on Sheffield 0/9). Basically 12+/-1% hit rate.

On the flip side no swordfish were lost.

It normally takes at least 3+ torpedo hits to sink a battleship. Assuming the same success you "expect" 2 hits. (And assume 18 swordfish at 90% reliability).

Against two ships do you concentrate one (and let the other free to sink you) or split up and attack both? Single hits (unless outside the belt) will not produce a mission kill, and no way a K-kill.

In some ways not loading torpedos is an advantage. They take twice as long to load and test. Attacking the ships with HE (as was done later to destroy AA mounts / crew to allow torpedo bombers attack) may have been a smart option in retrospect. Stopping accurate gunfire was more important than stopping the ship.

I don't see a good end with a Glorious, with a major escort
 
This all assumes that the twins get as close as otl before being spotted, which with patrol planes up as they should have been wouldn't be the case. The twins will not get anywhere near Glorious and there will be time to arm and launch a strike while at the same time screaming for help from the rest of the Home Fleet. The first strike may go in alone but any second or third strike will be joined by aircraft from the rest of the fleet covering the withdrawal. In all probability though once the Germans know they've been spotted they'll turn and run. The British can afford to take losses but not the Germans. Currently the twins are the only modern German capital ships and will remain so for the next year. They can't afford to have them sunk in a battle they can't win, and if either of them gets damaged enough to slow her down that's what would happen.
 
This all assumes that the twins get as close as otl before being spotted, which with patrol planes up as they should have been wouldn't be the case. The twins will not get anywhere near Glorious and there will be time to arm and launch a strike while at the same time screaming for help from the rest of the Home Fleet. The first strike may go in alone but any second or third strike will be joined by aircraft from the rest of the fleet covering the withdrawal. In all probability though once the Germans know they've been spotted they'll turn and run. The British can afford to take losses but not the Germans. Currently the twins are the only modern German capital ships and will remain so for the next year. They can't afford to have them sunk in a battle they can't win, and if either of them gets damaged enough to slow her down that's what would happen.

That assumes many things. For Glorious it means how many aircraft up, how far away and which direction?

We are still in pre-radar days, and are relying on 3 pairs of eyes, scanning from an open cockpit (1C at sealevel on the day).

Regardless of what the visual horizon is, spotting range is limited to the resolution of the human eye. 50 nmiles in clear conditions.

With the speed of Swordfish, you don't expect it to travel far from the carrier. (It will take to long to recall aircraft for a strike). Maybe 6 up, 6 resetting and set held back in the hanger (assume 2 playing up)

8th June is nearly summer solstice, and you're in the arctic circle. Not quite 24 hour day light? No true night? No wonder the air crews are tired. That's a big roster to fill and a lot of flying.

Since they are not expecting the twins, you maybe looking in the wrong place, miss them and not see them until much closer than you expect.

On the flip side, you wonder why the twins didn't have their aircraft out considering the conditions?

#The Ark Royal strike on Bismarch was lead by a radar equiped swordfish, and they had a warship trailing BM #
 
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That assumes many things. For Glorious it means how many aircraft up, how far away and which direction?

We are still in pre-radar days, and are relying on 3 pairs of eyes, scanning from an open cockpit (4C at sealevel on the day).

Regardless of what the visual horizon is, spotting range is limited to the resolution of the human eye. 50 nmiles in clear conditions.

With the speed of Swordfish, you don't expect it to travel far from the carrier. (It will take to long to recall aircraft for a strike). Maybe 6 up, 6 resetting and set held back in the hanger (assume 2 playing up)

Since they are not expecting the twins, you maybe looking in the wrong place and not see them until much closer than you expect.

On the flip side, you wonder why the twins didn't have their aircraft out considering the conditions?

#The Ark Royal strike on Bismarch was lead by a radar equiped swordfish, and they had a warship trailing BM #
As you say Glorious will have planes scouting. Probably 6 sweeping the full extent of their range away from the carrier.

Remember a carriers armour is distance. IE getting seaspace between them and any opposition fleets.

Let's say there are 8 on patrol duty that leaves 12 on HIS Glorious for a first strike. Let's be generous to the Germans and say 2 have mechanical problems leaving 10 for the first strike. They will probably concentrate on one target.

A single hit will be considered a success if it slows the target sufficiently that the Royal Navy battlecruiser or battleships can intercept.

Depending on how far from Glorious they are spotted Glorious can now make follow up attacks will full strength as the patrol planes will have returned.

If the range is 80-300 miles when the twins are spotted it's not a range they can close and force an engagement, it's also not a range where the twins can get away without suffering a second strike.
 
As you say Glorious will have planes scouting. Probably 6 sweeping the full extent of their range away from the carrier.

Remember a carriers armour is distance. IE getting seaspace between them and any opposition fleets.

Let's say there are 8 on patrol duty that leaves 12 on HIS Glorious for a first strike. Let's be generous to the Germans and say 2 have mechanical problems leaving 10 for the first strike. They will probably concentrate on one target.

A single hit will be considered a success if it slows the target sufficiently that the Royal Navy battlecruiser or battleships can intercept.

Depending on how far from Glorious they are spotted Glorious can now make follow up attacks will full strength as the patrol planes will have returned.

If the range is 80-300 miles when the twins are spotted it's not a range they can close and force an engagement, it's also not a range where the twins can get away without suffering a second strike.

You have at least 16hrs of day light to cover!! (And 4 hours of twilight)

Even with a full 5.5 hour endurance, with the landing cycle and reserves, it's more like 4hrs. You're talking four cycles and maintance in btw.

Even with 20, you'd be lucky to have 5-6 airborne and maintain a reserve of 5-6. (in the OTL they only had 14 naval craft !)

Also has the ship have enough avgas to fly these sorties

(Edit: you'll also need to keep aloft a flight of fighter and a swordfish on ASW duties.)

You swordfish is only cruising at 120kts, IE 240nm range max. But you need to leave no gaps in your search. You can half that range. 120nm plus 25nm visual depending on angles

In the OTL the twins are heading near due north. Glorious SW. Glorious needs to head NW to move to open ocean.

Depending on luck, you'll probably pick up the twins at 2/3 distance, ~75nm? Much better than 21nm!!

The kicker is to launch Glorious must sail near due west. Directly across the twin's path.

Is it better to keep running NW towards other RN units or launch and let the twin close?
 
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You have at least 16hrs of day light to cover!! (And 4 hours of twilight)

Even with a full 5.5 hour endurance, with the landing cycle and reserves, it's more like 4hrs. You're talking four cycles and maintance in btw.

Even with 20, you'd be lucky to have 5-6 airborne and maintain a reserve of 5-6. (in the OTL they only had 14 naval craft !)

Also has the ship have enough avgas to fly these sorties

(Edit: you'll also need to keep aloft a flight of fighter and a swordfish on ASW duties.)

You swordfish is only cruising at 120kts, IE 240nm range max. But you need to leave no gaps in your search. You can half that range. 120nm plus 25nm visual depending on angles

In the OTL the twins are heading near due north. Glorious SW. Glorious needs to head NW to move to open ocean.

Depending on luck, you'll probably pick up the twins at 2/3 distance, ~75nm? Much better than 21nm!!

The kicker is to launch Glorious must sail near due west. Directly across the twin's path.

Is it better to keep running NW towards other RN units or launch and let the twin close?
Why not compromise? As soon as they are spotted, alter course directly away at full speed, calling in the clans. Once a strike is ready, reassess the situation, and if it is safe to do so, turn into the wind to launch the strike, then continue running directly away.

All of this assumes that the Twins, on seeing patrolling carrier aircraft, don't immediately turn away from the threat themselves. They know full well that any torpedo bit that slows them below 28 knots is putting them in serious danger, below 20 knots is probably sealing their fate. Do they really risk it against a carrier that is obviously conducting flight ops, has spotted them whilst they are still well out of gun range, and over which they have at best a few knots speeed advantage?
 
Why not compromise? As soon as they are spotted, alter course directly away at full speed, calling in the clans. Once a strike is ready, reassess the situation, and if it is safe to do so, turn into the wind to launch the strike, then continue running directly away.

All of this assumes that the Twins, on seeing patrolling carrier aircraft, don't immediately turn away from the threat themselves. They know full well that any torpedo bit that slows them below 28 knots is putting them in serious danger, below 20 knots is probably sealing their fate. Do they really risk it against a carrier that is obviously conducting flight ops, has spotted them whilst they are still well out of gun range, and over which they have at best a few knots speeed advantage?

You are only Turing into the wind to launch! It depends how slick you are. Hornet was slow at midway and wasted fighter's fuel. The IJN were super slick.

Hence why I am so hard on cats. Until Wildcats, FAA had turtle slow cat cycles.

Why would the twins turn away. The quickest way to remove the threat is dink Glorious. Running prolongs the threat. Attack, attack, attack.
 
You are only Turing into the wind to launch! It depends how slick you are. Hornet was slow at midway and wasted fighter's fuel. The IJN were super slick.

Hence why I am so hard on cats. Until Wildcats, FAA had turtle slow cat cycles.

Why would the twins turn away. The quickest way to remove the threat is dink Glorious. Running prolongs the threat. Attack, attack, attack.
Because if the Twins see carrier based patrols and not a carrier, they don't know where to "dink" Glorious. They know there is a carrier somewhere over there at an unknown range with an unknown escort comprised of 0-3 battlecruisers and 0-5 battleships.

A Swordfish strike won't directly kill a Twin. It can slow them down which either means one or both get overhauled by Home Fleet and blasted OR many months in the yard.
 
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