Hitler's worst nightmate is realized: Stalin attacks Romania and cuts oil to Germany

So here in this recording we can hear, directly from Hitler's own mouth this was his worst fear:


In minute 7:32 he states how he feared that in 1940 Stalin would jump into Romania, take the oil fields and cut off all oil to Germany.

What would be the outcome if this had happened? If possible answer both cases:

A) The attack happens after France is defeated
B) The attack happens during the Battle of France

Im not sure if scenario B is possible, though.
 
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Molotov gave Stalin's 'demands' in November 1940 included was part of Romania, wanting it to be in Soviet sphere of interest - became a clincher for the Invasion - Hitler couldn't risk Stalin having him over a barrel!
 
No T34, Purges still underway, SVT-40 still in development, and the lackeys in charge are really bad at warfare for the most part. Plus Russia now looks like the bad guy. It may permit Germany to start Barbarossa earlier as Russia will now be fighting Finland around the same time. There is a chance for German/Finnish troops to cut off Murmansk, push hard/fast into St. Petersburg, or both. Russia probably still wins but it makes for a very interesting change, especially as France has the long-range bombers Germany does not. An MB.162 can make about 300 knots with a range of 2400 km carrying an 3600 kg bomb load - if Germany decides to mass produce this, or worse re-engineer it to improve its performance.

Example: with Kasei-like engines from Mitsubishi the horsepower increase approaches 55% at a weight cost of about 25% [per engine] *or* using a DB 601e about 14% increase in horsepower for comparable displacement and a weight savings of roughly 30kg per engine. Presuming the range increases by 20% under those circumstances at constant speed, it gives Germany a bomber comparable to the B-17 in range and payload with a higher top speed.
 
At work.

I mentioned something similar in another thread about the German/Russian kick off into Poland.

In regards to this scenario. Could the Germans set up a Communist uprising in Romania. Setting the stage for Stalin (Or which ever general is on the boarder) to rally to their aid hence kind of creating the OP's starting point?

Which, as others in other threads have stated, definately plays the Germans onto the side of the Allies against the Russians.

With the assumtion either Germany doesn't kick off against France.

Or the Romanian affair kicks off before said date.

An interesting read. :)
 

elkarlo

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On top of the purges and material problems, what about morale ? Without being on the receiving end of a war of extermination, woukd Soviet forces fight hard? That was also the question during the cold war. Would Soviet forces fight hard if they were fighting an offensive war?
 
On top of the purges and material problems, what about morale ? Without being on the receiving end of a war of extermination, woukd Soviet forces fight hard? That was also the question during the cold war. Would Soviet forces fight hard if they were fighting an offensive war?

Well, note they aren't necessarily fighting the Germans all the way up to Berlin. Hitler's fear dealt with the USSR cutting all oil. So the USSR simply have to invade Romania and burn the oil there and then pull back and refuse to keep trading with Germany. If Germany attacks the USSR that's on them.
 
likely it butterflies away Italy moving on France, and battling Soviets in Romania, since that is the source of their oil as well? (not clear on time frame we are discussing)
 

elkarlo

Banned
Well, note they aren't necessarily fighting the Germans all the way up to Berlin. Hitler's fear dealt with the USSR cutting all oil. So the USSR simply have to invade Romania and burn the oil there and then pull back and refuse to keep trading with Germany. If Germany attacks the USSR that's on them.
Even that is no walk over. The Russians had massive problems doing offensives all the way into 42, I doubt without war expertly could just walk in that easily. I am not sure if the Soviets could take and hold Romania not without a officer corps that been experienced at some sort of mobile war.
I'm not sure how the common solider woukd fight as well. I feel that they would not be anywhere near as valiant as they were in the real wwii .
 
Even that is no walk over. The Russians had massive problems doing offensives all the way into 42, I doubt without war expertly could just walk in that easily. I am not sure if the Soviets could take and hold Romania not without a officer corps that been experienced at some sort of mobile war.
I'm not sure how the common solider woukd fight as well. I feel that they would not be anywhere near as valiant as they were in the real wwii .

Well, Hitler believed it would be a walkover. And when Adolf "I will defeat subhuman Russia in less than a year and it will be a walkover" Hitler, believes the Soviets will do a walkover that not even superhuman arian Nazis can stop, I tend to believe him.
 

raharris1973

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Plus Russia now looks like the bad guy.

It will look like the bad guy to the Germans and Romanians and Italians and Finns. Hungarians and Bulgarians will think of this mainly in terms of their being a chance of profit for them.

To the Soviets themselves? Countries don't really regard themselves as the bad guy. The Soviets will claim self-defense internally.

To the British? The Russians will appear to be a very good guy the minute they start shooting Germans or the Germans start shooting them.

To the French? If still fighting, and it escalates to German-Russian fighting, the Soviets will appear very good indeed.
Even if it is post French capitulation and Petain condemns the move, the Free French abroad will love it.

To American public opinion? It was pro-British to the extent it was pro-anybody. If it turns into Soviets fighting Germans, Americans will be happy.

Could the Germans set up a Communist uprising in Romania

I think you meant the Russians. I don't think they could set up an actual effective Communist uprising. That's now how they did things in the Baltic either. Investing too much in that type of political theater only threatens to spoil the surprise attack.

Without being on the receiving end of a war of extermination, woukd Soviet forces fight hard?

Soviets fought against Finns and Poles and Japanese on land that was not Soviet at that time, so I don't think the difference is too critical. Soviet troops will have NKVD blocking units shooting at if they retreat, and once engaged, the Romanians and probably soon the Germans will be shooting at them in the front, so individual Soviet soldiers and units might as well just keep shooting forward.
 

raharris1973

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Let's look at the two scenarios -

If the Soviets attack during the battle of France, the Germans are not yet present in Romania. They hate what is happening, but have to choose between dispatching forces to aid the Romanians immediately (and transit through Hungary), or doing a more deliberate assault after finishing the campaign in France and redeploying to the east.

Each has its problems - (a) if they condemn and intervene immediately, it is pell-mell, piecemeal intervention. They need to arrange transit through Hungary. There is a boost to French morale which, even if too late to save mainland resistance, will encourage the French to formally stay in the war and resist from Africa and maybe Corsica. Maybe though they could stop the Soviets short of Ploesti and protect the airfields with a decent fighter CAP (or decent enough, compared to probable massive but inexpert Soviet bombing campaigns) (b) If they wait till finishing France and redeploying major forces to the east, they will have to combine that with keeping a smile on their face to stay safe. But this way they still have a shot at achieving Vichy capitulation, if it becomes apparent in the days after the invasion that the Soviet-German pact is holding. The Germans could do a more decisive move against the forward Soviet forces in Romania (and basically along the length of the common border) if they wait till redeployment, but the prospects of damage to Romanian oilfields increase.

A Soviet assault extending into Wallachia is just bad news for the Germans. Speedy Soviet success is bad for obvious reasons, but even a slow, grinding Soviet campaign is bad news in terms of probable increased damage to Romanian infrastructure.
 

raharris1973

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A Soviet attack on Romania after the fall of France and in the autumn does not put Germany in as immediate peril as the one above.

It means war with the Soviets right away as the Germans started to move into Romania in September.

The Soviets could be stopped short of Ploesti by combined German, Romanian and maybe even some Italian resistance. Ploesti is likely to be damaged by bombing, but there's a chance a prompt Luftwaffe CAP would limit the damage and make Soviet air operations more cautious after a short spell.

However, the Germans will have to repond in a rushed manner without catching the Soviet air force on the ground. The initial Soviet assault against Romania in this case may also have a prong of ground and air operations aimed against Poland and East Prussia, which could be disruptive of quick counterattack prospects.

Even if this starts in late September, the Soviets epically fail to get into Wallachia and Dobruja, and the Germans regain the initiative along the whole front within a week or two, there just is not a long enough campaign season until mud season and winter for the Germans to get into the Dnepr, and quite possibly not enough time for the Germans to even cross to the old 1938 western Soviet border.
 
likely it butterflies away Italy moving on France, and battling Soviets in Romania, since that is the source of their oil as well? (not clear on time frame we are discussing)

on the plus side for Axis, Italy has likely not launched their invasion of Greece? but it is not clear how Italy could move large force to Romania? what country would allow them thru? likely only Hungary and in that case Romania might be suspicious?

maybe unlikely that Soviets are able to stage a coup inside Romania but certainly possible inside Bulgaria? then they have basically encircled Romania.
 
Given that such a move would surely provoke war with Germany, would Stalin have allowed it? Perception is really important here. During and after the Battle of France, Germany was perceived as invincible. To Stalin, provoking a war with a country that just won one of the most astounding victories in recent history would have been insanity.
 
Given that such a move would surely provoke war with Germany, would Stalin have allowed it? Perception is really important here. During and after the Battle of France, Germany was perceived as invincible. To Stalin, provoking a war with a country that just won one of the most astounding victories in recent history would have been insanity.
Plus, Stalin knows how his forces performed in Finland, knows that Germany has a sizeable oil reserve and won't immediately grind to a halt and he knows that Britain&friends always have the option for a ceasefire with Germany open.

For this scenario to happen, it has to take place DURING the battle of France, and thus in a haphazard fashion. Tactically, an Axis victory, but in the long run this will benefit the Soviets far more than OTL
 

raharris1973

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on the plus side for Axis, Italy has likely not launched their invasion of Greece? but it is not clear how Italy could move large force to Romania? what country would allow them thru? likely only Hungary and in that case Romania might be suspicious?

maybe unlikely that Soviets are able to stage a coup inside Romania but certainly possible inside Bulgaria? then they have basically encircled Romania.

If done during the battle of France and Mussolini’s DoW, indeed there could be a few weeks to a month or so of separate “parallel” war, where the Italians decide to be heroic by helping the Romanians instead of declaring war on the Allies. The main aid they could get through would be from the Regia Aeronautica. Transit across Yugoslavia should not be an insurmountable problem. Spain and Portugal are likely to send some volunteers also.

I do not know if the Turks would let Regia Marina units pass through the straits.

This really all could result in the Germans letting the Italians take the lead for a month or so while they finish off France, and as the Germans ready their strike East they may precede it with some covert aid to help the Italians.

No Communist coup is needed in this early scenario to get Bulgaria or Hungary to press Romania for territorial concessions or even attack Romania. Their own nationalistic goals could motivate them. Although they would get more reluctant to action in this fashion once Italy or Germany begin to champion the Romanians.
 
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