Hitler's 1941

Suppose Hitler, for any one of a number of reasons, goes into a coma June 1, 1941, and at least seems to make a complete recovery a little over two months later?

On December 1, 1941 he has a relapse, and he goes into a coma and does make a complete recovery five weeks later?

What difference does it make?
 
The invasion of the Soviet Union was already in the final stages of troop and supply concentrations, and only really needed good weather before it began, so it's unlikely for that to suddenly be cancelled. The military and most of the Nazi Party apparatus was behind the invasion, save for a few holdouts who wouldn't be able to halt the invasion at so late a stage.

The first major difference likely comes around the Battle of Smolensk. During and after the battle Hitler changed strategic directions, sending Guderian south to encircle and destroy the Red Army around Kiev, allowing Army Group South to resume it's advance. Here it's debatable whether Hitler successor, likely Goering, would have the strength of will to force the "turn south". Thus Army Group Center resumes it's advance on Moscow after Smolensk, running into the teeth of Western and Reserve Fronts, with a million soldiers of the Briansk and Southwestern Fronts still on its southern flank. The result will most likely be a strategic disaster.

Hitler will awaken from his first coma in early August, but will still take several weeks to resume command and likely will not be given an accurate appraisal of the situation; the German high command had contempt for Soviet capabilities and throughout 1941 underestimated the durability of Soviet resistance. Thus, without being aware of the full failure of Barbarossa, Hitler will continue to approve the push on Moscow, especially with it already underway.

The final result is that Hitler falls into his second coma just as the Soviet counteroffensive begins to take form on a broad front. The German army is likely smashed, with it's defeat being comparable, if somewhat less grand, than that of Napoleon in 1812. Likely it reforms a line west of Smolensk.
 
Suppose Hitler, for any one of a number of reasons, goes into a coma June 1, 1941, and at least seems to make a complete recovery a little over two months later?

On December 1, 1941 he has a relapse, and he goes into a coma and does make a complete recovery five weeks later?

What difference does it make?
I'm not going into details, but I have Hitler going i to a coma in a timeline I started a couple of days ago. I'm not going into details for what I have planned though(link in my sig)..... ;)
 
The invasion of the Soviet Union was already in the final stages of troop and supply concentrations, and only really needed good weather before it began, so it's unlikely for that to suddenly be cancelled. The military and most of the Nazi Party apparatus was behind the invasion, save for a few holdouts who wouldn't be able to halt the invasion at so late a stage.

The first major difference likely comes around the Battle of Smolensk. During and after the battle Hitler changed strategic directions, sending Guderian south to encircle and destroy the Red Army around Kiev, allowing Army Group South to resume it's advance. Here it's debatable whether Hitler successor, likely Goering, would have the strength of will to force the "turn south". Thus Army Group Center resumes it's advance on Moscow after Smolensk, running into the teeth of Western and Reserve Fronts, with a million soldiers of the Briansk and Southwestern Fronts still on its southern flank. The result will most likely be a strategic disaster.

Hitler will awaken from his first coma in early August, but will still take several weeks to resume command and likely will not be given an accurate appraisal of the situation; the German high command had contempt for Soviet capabilities and throughout 1941 underestimated the durability of Soviet resistance. Thus, without being aware of the full failure of Barbarossa, Hitler will continue to approve the push on Moscow, especially with it already underway.

The final result is that Hitler falls into his second coma just as the Soviet counteroffensive begins to take form on a broad front. The German army is likely smashed, with it's defeat being comparable, if somewhat less grand, than that of Napoleon in 1812. Likely it reforms a line west of Smolensk.

Perhaps you could guess I was "trying" to keep Germany out of war with the USSR and the USA. I pretty much accept what you say about the invasion of the USSR taking place, and I don't feel qualified to evaluate the rest of it.

If German arms are so chewed up after the start of his first coma, I don't know that it would declare war on USA during the four weeks or so after PH, if PH is not butterflied away, second coma or no second coma. And if it does
it can accomplish little against the USA. And the chances of the USA declaring war on Germany increase if it looks like its ready to be knocked out, but might come back if not finished.

Could Hitler not going into the second coma prevent the smashing of the German army? That could be the flaw in my revised premise.
 
Suppose Hitler, for any one of a number of reasons, goes into a coma June 1, 1941, and at least seems to make a complete recovery a little over two months later?

On December 1, 1941 he has a relapse, and he goes into a coma and does make a complete recovery five weeks later?

What difference does it make?

Goering assumes power. However, there is an immediate ferment of intrigues among the remaining Nazi leaders.

Goering was opposed to the invasion of the USSR, but went along with Hitler (as he always did).

If he comes to power before the invasion, IMO he cancels or suspends it. His excuse may be that only the "true" Fuhrer has the right to commit Germany to such a colossal enterprise, and that without Hitler's leadership, it should not be attempted.

He may try to negotiate peace with Britain. When rebuffed, he may resume the Blitz. I don't know how he felt about the war in Africa, but he might decide to reinforce Rommel, and thus put more pressure on Britain.

Both of these actions would take some time, and Goering would not presume to take them immediately, so they would come into effect in mid-July, and be just started when Hitler wakes up.

Hitler may be annoyed that BARBAROSSA has not gone forward, but I suspect he would accept Goering's flattering excuses. He would then order BARBAROSSA for mid-August - allowing a week or two for final prep. I'm pretty sure he believed BARBAROSSA would succeed within two or three months, so he would not consider August too late to start it.

The big question at this point is what Stalin is now thinking. He said there would be no invasion, and there wasn't - but Hitler's illness figures into that. The mountain of intelligence about German preparations only got bigger. Still, Stalin may remain obdurate.

Soviet preparations will be about two months further along, which will help somewhat.

That's the situation. BARBAROSSA starts on say 15 August. It goes more or less as OTL, though slightly better for the more prepared Soviets. However, the fall rains set in after two months. This prevents the Axis from closing the Kiev pocket, invading the Crimea, and isolating Leningrad.

When the ground freezes in mid-November, the Germans attack again. This is against the Vyazma-Mozhaisk position west of Moscow. OTL the Germans blew through it in early October, and took over 600,000 prisoners. But in freezing weather, it won't be so good. The Germans will make several penetrations and cause much damage, but they won't break through or get near Moscow.

When Hitler collapse again on 1 December, Goering will again take over. Soviet counterattacks will begin about that time, and Goering - unlike Hitler - will authorize withdrawals.

Soviet casualties will be about 1.5 million less, with that much more strength for the winter counterattack. Between that and German withdrawals, the front will be moved west 300 km, to the Dnieper.

Hitler will reawaken in January, and this time he may be angry enough to sack Goering.

What else? Well, if the Pacific War develops on OTL's schedule (and why not?), then it is up to Goering whether Germany declares war on the U.S. I think, as before, Goering delays - again deferring to Hitler when he wakes up. When he does, I think he declares war. This has various knock-ons for the Battle of the Atlantic.
 
I'm guessing that political intrigues conspire to make either one of the coma's permanent. There's going to be a lot of eyes looking at that plug.
 
Would they tell anybody that Hitler was in a coma? That would be their first dilemma and if they decide to see if they can get away with not telling people, how many people are going to be in on the secret - probably around a hundred, or even 200, imho considering that people who expect to meet with Hitler (eg Keitel) can't, that Goering, Himmler, Goebbels etc will know and will have family who know and will have personal aides who know, then there is the staff at...well where-ever Hitler is, along with SS guards and so on.

If they can then they will probably have him officially in a secret location working on a masterplan or something, for public consumption.

When the secret leaks and the rumours fly, then the truth is going to need to be managed - Goebbels tends to be good at that! Goering would then step in as Regent

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
If German arms are so chewed up after the start of his first coma, I don't know that it would declare war on USA during the four weeks or so after PH, if PH is not butterflied away, second coma or no second coma.

Pearl Harbour probably won't be butterflied away. The gears for that had been set into motion months before the PoD.

And in any case, once the US is in the war against Japan it is only a matter of time before there is an incident in the Atlantic that Roosevelt will use as a casus-belli. Post-Pearl Harbour, the US will probably coming into the European War by mid-1942 at the latest.

And even before then there is still lend-lease.

If he comes to power before the invasion, IMO he cancels or suspends it. His excuse may be that only the "true" Fuhrer has the right to commit Germany to such a colossal enterprise, and that without Hitler's leadership, it should not be attempted.

I have my doubts about that. By June 1 everything was too far along for Goering to simply cancel the invasion just like that. Now maybe a postponement...

I'm pretty sure he believed BARBAROSSA would succeed within two or three months, so he would not consider August too late to start it.

I also have my doubts about this. The Germans went into Barbarossa thinking it would be three months of hard fighting, another month of breaking the less vestiges of resistance, and then the next year would just be mopping up. Starting from August might still be regarded as to close too the fall rains.

Then again, Hitler was also aware that time was very much not on Germany's side. For him, 1941 was the optimum year too hit the Soviets before the Americans started getting really involved.

Soviet casualties will be about 1.5 million less, with that much more strength for the winter counterattack. Between that and German withdrawals, the front will be moved west 300 km, to the Dnieper.

Minor correction: Soviet irrecoverable (KIA, MIA, POW, and combat-ineffective-WIA) casualties will be about 1.5 million less. Only a minor nitpick, because the irrecoverable are the important bit. It is also worth noting that without the loss of these forces they will also still have a lot of their equipment. And yeah, recoverable losses would likely also be lower.
 
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A German offensive in August likely won't penetrate across the Dnieper, the Smolensk region, or the Luga defense line. The Soviet winter counteroffensive will have a lot more punch to it, though it'll quickly bog down into an attrition fight.

As a whole though having Goering in charge in 1941 won't stop Barbarossa from going ahead. There were a host of military, economic, and political personalities all pushing for the invasion other than Hitler. Goering, only recently gaining his position, lacks the political clout to enforce his will against such large opposition. He also lacks the personality necessary to do so.
 
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