Late September 1944...
Hitler considers his current military position...
1) Churchill's position in the British government appears to be weakening but he is unlikely to fall while war rages in Europe.
2) Stalin, as always, is untrustworthy and he is quite likely to behave in a manner which will damage his relatons with the West the moment FDR's censorship weakens.
3) FDR's health is failing and his most likely replacements, Thomas Dewey if FDR loses the election and Harry S Truman if he wins, are both far less amenable to Stalin.
4) Germany can no longer hope to match the Allies in numbers, only in quality.
5) To that end there are many upcoming developments in military hardware, including long range ballistic missles, 'true' submarines, jets and more which offer some hope, and some of these, particularly the tanks with massive armor and firepower but miserable speed are peculiarly appropriate to the defense and less useful on the attack.
It is therefore in his and Germany's best interest to assume the defensive and wait for the Allies to bleed themselves white and have a falling out. It is with deep misgivings that Hitler decides to abandon areas which can not be held but...
To this end the following changes take place:
1) As much of the 28 divisions trapped in the Baltic pocket are to be evacuated, men at minimum if not equipment.
2) The nearly 40 divisions thrown away in Bulgaria and Romania are pulled back to Germany(or never sent).
3) The suicidal offensives against the West and the series of attacks targetting Lake Balaton/Budapest are cancelled.
4) A defensive posture is assumed on all fronts.
Noting that at least some of the Balkan divisions are surely overrun by the Red Army and most of the units west of Riga return home with little more than uniforms would this have a reasonable chance of Germany holding out long enough to split the Allies or otherwise force a negotiated peace?
Hitler considers his current military position...
1) Churchill's position in the British government appears to be weakening but he is unlikely to fall while war rages in Europe.
2) Stalin, as always, is untrustworthy and he is quite likely to behave in a manner which will damage his relatons with the West the moment FDR's censorship weakens.
3) FDR's health is failing and his most likely replacements, Thomas Dewey if FDR loses the election and Harry S Truman if he wins, are both far less amenable to Stalin.
4) Germany can no longer hope to match the Allies in numbers, only in quality.
5) To that end there are many upcoming developments in military hardware, including long range ballistic missles, 'true' submarines, jets and more which offer some hope, and some of these, particularly the tanks with massive armor and firepower but miserable speed are peculiarly appropriate to the defense and less useful on the attack.
It is therefore in his and Germany's best interest to assume the defensive and wait for the Allies to bleed themselves white and have a falling out. It is with deep misgivings that Hitler decides to abandon areas which can not be held but...
To this end the following changes take place:
1) As much of the 28 divisions trapped in the Baltic pocket are to be evacuated, men at minimum if not equipment.
2) The nearly 40 divisions thrown away in Bulgaria and Romania are pulled back to Germany(or never sent).
3) The suicidal offensives against the West and the series of attacks targetting Lake Balaton/Budapest are cancelled.
4) A defensive posture is assumed on all fronts.
Noting that at least some of the Balkan divisions are surely overrun by the Red Army and most of the units west of Riga return home with little more than uniforms would this have a reasonable chance of Germany holding out long enough to split the Allies or otherwise force a negotiated peace?