Hitler, the Fad?

Germany had a great degree of political instability before Hitler came to power. How likely is it that the Nazis turn into just another group that get their year in power, replaced by someone else? How likelyy is it they disapear sometime between 1936-38? And what are the odds if a outside force put some (non-military) weight behind the regime change?
 
Hitler was already losing support by 1933. The problem is, the Nazis had no intention of relinquishing power, and they had suborned enough parties to allow them this. Weimar Germany wasn't really terribly unstable at the fundamental level any more. Most people also desired stability, which was part of the problem. Removing Hitler from government in any kind of violent coup or revolution would have been unpopular even with many non-Nazis.

The next question is who is going to replace him? The Nazi party was not everybody's favourite in 35 and 36, but neither were the Communist or SoPaDE (aside from the fact that a Social Democrat coup is ASB). The military is the only credible candidate I can think of. Maybe if Hitler decides to stand by Roehm and gives the generals the finger... A more moderate military government would be welcomed by many and opposed by few, and the Nazis had already exiled, killed, imprisoned or intimidated most organised opposition, so the takeover could be swift. But how do you make Prussian officers grow a spine?

As to outsiders, I don't see that. The western democracies are utterly discredited with the German public raised on 'Schanddiktat' propaganda, the USSR is a bugbear, and the Fascists support Hitler. Any foreign association (with the possible exception of the Vatican, and that only maybe) will hurt more than help.
 
I'm thinking along the line of all those stories where the secret agent is sent to another country, work his magic, and does regime change. Only more realisticly, could FDR for example bring together a team that work that kind of magic. Or for that matter a local talent.
 
I'm thinking along the line of all those stories where the secret agent is sent to another country, work his magic, and does regime change. Only more realisticly, could FDR for example bring together a team that work that kind of magic. Or for that matter a local talent.

US intelligence was pretty amateurish prior to 1940. I very much doubt they would be effective. That said, the USA had a good reputation with the German ruling classes, so if any foreign power could have nudged them, it would be Washington.

Still, a more likely scenario is for the new government to turn to FDR for diplomatic support rather than for FDR to approach potential revolutionaries.
 
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