Hitler supports Lithuania - 1938

Hey Guys,

IOTL Poland gave Lithuania an ultimatum on 17 March, 1938 to establish diplomatic relations with Poland, thus causing a de facto renunciation of Lithuanian claims to the Vilnius region. The Soviets supported the Lithuanian claim, but they made it clear they wouldn't militarily support Lithuania due to their border conflicts with Japan in the east.

Hitler was looking at the Memel Territory, he said it was Germany's second-most important issue after the Sudetenland and even said to the Poles that, if a Polish-Lithuanian War broke out his troops would occupy the port. Thus he told Lithuania to concede to the Polish demands.

However, what if Hitler took a pro-Lithuanian view? Seeing the Polish ultimatum as a kind of 'Slavic Conspiracy' to weaken the Aryan claim to Central Europe, or some such nonsense.

What if Hitler had outwardly supported Lithuania and declared that if Poland were to attack Lithuania he would militarily support the Lithuanians? How would Britain and France react, IOTL they were focused on the Sudetenland, however if German focus shifted from there to Poland they'd obviously shift their focus too. Would we see the Allies demand Poland retract their ultimatum, seeing it as a Polish attempt at domination of the area? Or would they support Poland?

If war did break out would it be kept as a German-Lithuanian vs Poland War, or would we see other sides interfere? Could we see an agreement between Lithuania and Germany saying that for German support Lithuania would cede them Memel?
 
I could see him supporting Lithuania's claims on Vilnius in exchange for Memel. Hitler's ulterior motive would probably be an excuse to occupy Danzig in a Polish-Lithuianian conflict.
 
Considering that such a move would be prior to German intrigues over the Sudetenland, and Allied guarantees of Polish independence, I think that this could greatly alter the lead up to WWII. Chamberlain might try to negotiate a settlement between Lithuania and Poland (and Germany?) but that may or may not succeed.

If Hitler indeed tries to "trade" Memel for Vilnius and backs Lithuania, Chamberlain tries to bring all sides to the negotiating table and talks break down, I could see WWII breaking out much earlier in TTL over the issue. Of course this only benefits the allies as in 1938 Germany is far less prepared for war and is going to have significant trouble dealing with Poland, especially if the USSR doesn't intervene.

Then again, the Allies may just back down and let Hitler/Lithuania divvy up Poland, all the while rearming and preparing for the next confrontation (probably over Sudetenland...)
 
saying that for German support Lithuania would cede them Memel?
Depends what was more important for Lithuania.

Historically Lithuanian capital Vilnius - but with mostly ethnic Polish (both in the city and in the countryside surrounding it) and Jewish population and just small percentage of ethnic Lithuanians. Or - an important Baltic port, with significant ethnic Lithuanian population in the countryside surrounding it, a vital trade center for Lithuania.

I think Memel was more important from the economic point of view.

Vilnius was more important for Lithuanian "dignity", on the other hand.
 
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