Hitler starts World War II three years late

Italy, despite beating it's chest as a strong nation, was industrially weak. Said Italian industry did not equal more than 15% of that of France or of Britain in militarily critical areas such as automobile production. This weakened industry prevented it from modernizing it's military and had the demographics comparable to a developing country.

With this mind, Under Secretary of War Carlo Favagrossa, during the negotiations for the Pact of Steel between Italy and Germany, estimated that Italy would not be ready for war until October 1942. An agreement was made that no nation would make war until 1943.

As we all know, Hitler did not keep up his end of the bargain and began World War II in 1939 with Mussolini declaring war in 1940. We all know how the Italians performed in the war as a result

What if as stipulated in the negotiations for the Pact of Steel between Germany and Italy, Hitler did not start World War II until 1943?
 
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They get crushed. By mid-'39, Germany's mobilization program was plateauing and starting to threaten Germany with economic collapse while the Anglo-French were just starting to hit their stride and the Soviets were starting to wind down the purges. By '43, the reformed and rearmed British, French, and Soviet military's would be more then adequate to destroy the Axis.
 
I agree. Even the Poles already started modernizing their army with some quite good equipment - new planes, tanks, artillery; German technological advantage over Poland might not be so big in 1942.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Not to mention, unless things are drastically different in the Pacific, the United States would have already been engaged in a war for over a year at that point. Meaning no "Happy Time" for the U boats, as US ASW would start the war with a lot of experience from the Pacific.
 
Not to mention, unless things are drastically different in the Pacific, the United States would have already been engaged in a war for over a year at that point. Meaning no "Happy Time" for the U boats, as US ASW would start the war with a lot of experience from the Pacific.

ASW?
 
Worth noting that Hitler thought there was a decent chance the Allies were just bluffing over Poland anyways. So really the question is either, (a) what happens if something changed in British/French decision-making to the point where they were bluffing over Poland, or made no threats at all about Poland?

Or, (b) can Hitler be persuaded to stop annexing territory after 1938 and hold off for a few years until the German and Italian forces are stronger?

I'm not sure of the possible answers to those questions. Perhaps someone else is better informed. It's more a diplomatic history question than a military one.

In terms of the ramifications, though, I'm inclined to agree with the other posters. Barring some other unexpected developments in this altered timeline, Germany's position is not really improving in the immediate lead-up to the war. Other countries are probably going to be rebuilding at a faster rate than Germany is building.
 
Worth noting that Hitler thought there was a decent chance the Allies were just bluffing over Poland anyways. So really the question is either, (a) what happens if something changed in British/French decision-making to the point where they were bluffing over Poland, or made no threats at all about Poland?

Or, (b) can Hitler be persuaded to stop annexing territory after 1938 and hold off for a few years until the German and Italian forces are stronger?

I'm not sure of the possible answers to those questions. Perhaps someone else is better informed. It's more a diplomatic history question than a military one.

In terms of the ramifications, though, I'm inclined to agree with the other posters. Barring some other unexpected developments in this altered timeline, Germany's position is not really improving in the immediate lead-up to the war. Other countries are probably going to be rebuilding at a faster rate than Germany is building.

Would it be possible for Hitler to provoke civil unrest among the German population of Danzig until the Polish government either gave it to Germany willingly or was brought to it's knees, like he did in Czechoslovakia?
 
Poland actually considered a possibility of Nazi-led coup in Danizg and was prepared for such situation. In August 1939 there was a corps prepared to intervene; it was dissolved at the end of August, when Poles realized Germans are preparing for a full scale war.
Anyway, if Danizg Germans try to declare themselves again part of Germany, Poles will intervene, which, BTW will be legal as far as the League of Nations was concerned. An attempt to remove Polish presence in Danzig would not be easy or bloodless. Poland had a Polish Post office in Danzig, which IOTL was prepared to defend agaisnt potential German insurgents and Polish postmen actually fought almost whole day against SS, thanks to smuggled weapons. And there was also Westerplatte, well armed and defended. Eliminating them would require direct action by German troops, and that would be obvious casus belli for both sides.
 

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Yeah 1939 was pretty much the optimal point to go to war for the Nazis. Any later and you run into the Allies outstripping German rearmament due to their much larger finances and how much additional preparations they can make. By 1943 the French airforce would be entirely rebuilt and ready for all levels of warfare, including strategic air war, as they were buying B-24s to have that capability
 
From what I understand Hitler originally planned for the war to start in either 1942 or 1943. Circumstances forced Germany to go to war earlier. One interesting argument is that 1939 was the date the Nazi State would have to pay back most of the 'mefo bills' (essentially IOU's) that it had been using to fund rearmament. The Nazi's promised big business 20% annual interest in the mefo bills but would have had to pay them in '39. The outbreak of war meant they could delay paying.

The other factor is that the Nazi economy was in serious trouble due to the focus on rearmament and the earlier war was needed to prevent economic collapse.
 
German armaments production still would have continued too, France would still suffer from the lethargy and military incompetence that led to their downfall in 1940. Poland is still relatively military irrelevant even with some additional weapons. The Germans crush the poles in 1.5-2 months rather than 1 and crush the French at the expense of higher casualties. They still gain air superiority over France and rout the BEF. The Soviet Union would be too strong to start an offensive war with, but the Germans would probably realize this at that point.

The Italians, Hungarians and Romanians would certainly be more useful though. The Italians might be able to actually engage in offensive operations in North Africa albeit with German aid.
 
Not to mention, unless things are drastically different in the Pacific, the United States would have already been engaged in a war for over a year at that point. Meaning no "Happy Time" for the U boats, as US ASW would start the war with a lot of experience from the Pacific.


The Japanese didn't use their submarines at nearly the same level as the Germans. Plus there is no reason to assume that the US would be involved if they start the war this late.
 
Japan would be out of bunker fuel if they didn't go to war and the US would also be cranking out its utterly massive navy as for the Japanese subs it is likely that they would score their kills on several american capital ships the US will gain experience with ASW ops
 

SsgtC

Banned
There's also no reason to think that American ASW forces wouldn't be involved in convoy escort either. American warships we're engaged in combat against German U-boats well before an actual declaration of war with Germany. With FDR still in power, we'll see the same thing.

The Japanese didn't use their submarines at nearly the same level as the Germans. Plus there is no reason to assume that the US would be involved if they start the war this late.
 
German armaments production still would have continued too, France would still suffer from the lethargy and military incompetence that led to their downfall in 1940. Poland is still relatively military irrelevant even with some additional weapons. The Germans crush the poles in 1.5-2 months rather than 1 and crush the French at the expense of higher casualties. They still gain air superiority over France and rout the BEF. The Soviet Union would be too strong to start an offensive war with, but the Germans would probably realize this at that point.

The Italians, Hungarians and Romanians would certainly be more useful though. The Italians might be able to actually engage in offensive operations in North Africa albeit with German aid.

If the German economy can fund armaments production. There are reasons to believe it wouldn't be able to. And while I agree Germany would defeat Poland, crushing France might not be so easy; IOTL it was much closer things than many people believe to (see: The Blunted Sickle timeline); against significantly better prepared France and Britain? It might end with a disaster for Germany.
 
German armaments production still would have continued too, France would still suffer from the lethargy and military incompetence that led to their downfall in 1940....

The Italians, Hungarians and Romanians would certainly be more useful though. The Italians might be able to actually engage in offensive operations in North Africa.

Unlike the plucky Italians, the stupid French can't ever win.
 
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