Hitler killed in Normandy

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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One thing for sure I think- hundreds of thou-
sands of people who IOTL died(like Anne
Frank)would have lived.
 
Honestly I think the important part would be the shake up, I can’t imagine that the army would allow Himmler to gain the same power as Hitler even if they accepted him as the next head of state, and Goering would pretty much just be a figure head, while a junta ran things behind the scene. The Holocaust would likely not be stopped, but I could see it being scaled down with a new regime re-ordering all aspects of the German government. Likely the people in the death camps already would be killed, but I could also see them stop using resources to send new people to the camps, instead I could see real labour camps being set up instead. I also expect that the evidence would be destroyed.
 
Honestly I think the important part would be the shake up, I can’t imagine that the army would allow Himmler to gain the same power as Hitler even if they accepted him as the next head of state, and Goering would pretty much just be a figure head, while a junta ran things behind the scene. The Holocaust would likely not be stopped, but I could see it being scaled down with a new regime re-ordering all aspects of the German government. Likely the people in the death camps already would be killed, but I could also see them stop using resources to send new people to the camps, instead I could see real labour camps being set up instead. I also expect that the evidence would be destroyed.
Bit of wishful thinking there, contrary to the PR, the Heer was up to its neck in the evil in the East. Post War, with the need to rehabilitate the German military for the Cold War, a lot got whitewashed. Many in the Heer thought the Jews/Slav's needed exterminating and the work camps, that killed probably as many as the Death camps, are vital for the War effort They certainly are not going to start feeding untermensch or giving them medical treatment so the deaths will continue in great numbers anyway.
 
Bit of wishful thinking there, contrary to the PR, the Heer was up to its neck in the evil in the East. Post War, with the need to rehabilitate the German military for the Cold War, a lot got whitewashed. Many in the Heer thought the Jews/Slav's needed exterminating and the work camps, that killed probably as many as the Death camps, are vital for the War effort They certainly are not going to start feeding untermensch or giving them medical treatment so the deaths will continue in great numbers anyway.

Sigh, the Holocaust was a waste of resources, which could have been spend better elsewhere, it was also a problem for the leaders of the new regime on a personally level, when they would lose the war. In such cases the rational thing to do would be to clean up and remove the evidence. That’s not falling for the clean wehrmacht, that’s understanding basic human behavior.
 
Sigh, the Holocaust was a waste of resources, which could have been spend better elsewhere, it was also a problem for the leaders of the new regime on a personally level, when they would lose the war. In such cases the rational thing to do would be to clean up and remove the evidence. That’s not falling for the clean wehrmacht, that’s understanding basic human behavior.
I know what you want to happen but the Work camps , slave labor, no rations for non working untermensch don't change. They can't, lack of resources and affect on war production. These "rational" leaders are still, in the main, Nazi supporters and violently anti-Semite/anti-Slav. They are not going to let people out of the ghettos or give them more food/fuel. They also, which you miss, still think they can get a draw, delusional I know, but they will not be thinking in terms of defeat yet. Losing Hitler does not suddenly make all the Nazi's, which are a very large group, not the tiny group of Cold War PR, change their spots. Not sending people to camps will mean in the main they are just worked to death or starved in place. OK deaths will be down but not by a lot. When people are losing they take it out on scapegoats, they don't act rationally. See Japan in the pacific during this period.
 
There was by June ‘44 only two ways the war would end.
1) The Allies firmly in control of Germany.
2) Someone inventing a time machine, and delivering to the German a couple of squadrons of Minutemen III missiles and their warheads.

That’s it. Since 2 is unlikely, it’s got to be 1.
The Allies aren’t going to negotiate. Hitler or no Hitler. No negotiated settlement. Except for one with a clause which disbands German Military and Navy and places the Allies as the (no pun intended) overlords of Germany.
 
If Hitler was to make a tour of inspection and consultation in Normandy with Rommel after D-day - the Enigma printers would be chattering away prior to the event, the Allies would have a good idea where and when. I think on balance they would go for a 'hit' The amount of confusion in the German command and control system would have made it worth it to the Allies.
 
what sort of retrenchment would they try to make? (and what might be successfully carried out?)

for instance it was already suggested no Falaise Pocket, but a retreat across the Seine? any new leadership would have to think Romania is looking switch sides or exit quickly? and would want to position themselves to hold the oilfields or at least the Carpathian Mtns.?
 

SsgtC

Banned
I know what you want to happen but the Work camps , slave labor, no rations for non working untermensch don't change. They can't, lack of resources and affect on war production. These "rational" leaders are still, in the main, Nazi supporters and violently anti-Semite/anti-Slav. They are not going to let people out of the ghettos or give them more food/fuel. They also, which you miss, still think they can get a draw, delusional I know, but they will not be thinking in terms of defeat yet. Losing Hitler does not suddenly make all the Nazi's, which are a very large group, not the tiny group of Cold War PR, change their spots. Not sending people to camps will mean in the main they are just worked to death or starved in place. OK deaths will be down but not by a lot. When people are losing they take it out on scapegoats, they don't act rationally. See Japan in the pacific during this period.
I think what's being suggested is that, if the military takes over, sending people to the camps will take a much lower priority than it had under Hitler. The military would much rather use scarce resources to support the war effort over exterminating Jews and Slavs. Their thinking would be that there would be plenty of time after the war to get around to that.
 
What if the British do get word via Enigma, and send in an SAS trained team (like the Heydrich hit), dressed in German army uniforms/equipment? Make the operation look like a Heer plot, and let chaos reign!

Ric350
 
What if the British do get word via Enigma, and send in an SAS trained team (like the Heydrich hit), dressed in German army uniforms/equipment? Make the operation look like a Heer plot, and let chaos reign!

Ric350

"Laughs in Room 20" (type of thing they would do)
 

Deleted member 1487

What if the British do get word via Enigma, and send in an SAS trained team (like the Heydrich hit), dressed in German army uniforms/equipment? Make the operation look like a Heer plot, and let chaos reign!

Ric350
The prep work for that would be pretty heavy, hard to try and pull that off on the fly. Besides it is less than likely that they'd want to even try that due to fears that someone more competent might take over and even try and make a peace offer that would be hard to refuse.

The issue with the Engima thing is that it's a military code, not a high level strategic one, so likely there would be very little showing up on Engima, because Hitler's MO was surprise and with little warning to make sure that his enemies couldn't plan ahead to assassinate him. The Lorenz machine would probably have news about it...but then Hitler was in France in June 1944 and the Allies didn't try and bomb his bunker, which was surprisingly close to the front:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfsschlucht_II
http://www.univem-paris.com/en/w2-hitlers-bunker-at-margival-a-very-impressive-site/
« Wolfsschlucht 2 » (Wolf’s Ravine), W2 for short, has been built by the Todt Organization between 1942 and 1944. 22,000 workers were employed to build 450 bunkers, among them the one dedicated to Hitler himself. It was also the most important German communication centre of WWII with a 108m (325ft) long building sheltering 600 phone lines. Within a few minutes, Hitler could communicate with his armies anywhere in the world.

Hitler only came once, that was for the June 17, 1944 conference attended by Rommel and Von Rundstedt among many others. It was a turning point in history. Held shortly after the allied landing in Normandy, Rommel and Von Rundstedt tried desperately but in vain to convince Hitler that this was “The” landing, that there will be no other, and that subsequently it was of utmost importance to move the 15th Army from the North to Normandy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margival

what sort of retrenchment would they try to make? (and what might be successfully carried out?)

for instance it was already suggested no Falaise Pocket, but a retreat across the Seine? any new leadership would have to think Romania is looking switch sides or exit quickly? and would want to position themselves to hold the oilfields or at least the Carpathian Mtns.?
Rommel was pushing for a retreat out of the range of the naval guns and to reorganize, but likely once they start pulling back they won't have the breathing room to reorganize without pulling back to the Seine and then starting a phased withdrawal to the German border, especially after the collapse of the front in Southern France.

As to Romania King Michael was already talking with the communists before the June 17th meeting Hitler had with Rommel:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Michael's_Coup
Likely since the first meeting was only on the 13th-14th of June it would take time to actually organize and would require the Soviets being on the verge of military success to prevent the Germans from having the room to forestall the coup, as Gerstenberg, the head of the Luftwaffe command in the country since 1942, had foreseen the coup as early as 1942 and organized accordingly against the risk of an attempt; IOTL in 1944 his anti-coup effort was undermined by the collapse of the front and Soviet advance, which consumed the military resources he needed to take control over the capital. Still, he tried and obviously failed, but only after doing a fair bit of damage and getting relatively close to pulling his plan off.

The Romanians knew the risk of moving too soon, so I think it is unlikely that the Romanians move any faster than IOTL unless the Soviets move up their plans to attack, but it would solidify their plans to switch sides sooner. Interestingly though Michael did offer the German ambassador the option to have an uncontested retreat out of the country, but instead the German military opted for a counter coup with OTL result. Not sure if butterflies would get them to accept it, especially if there was a different diplomat in Romania at the time.

I think what's being suggested is that, if the military takes over, sending people to the camps will take a much lower priority than it had under Hitler. The military would much rather use scarce resources to support the war effort over exterminating Jews and Slavs. Their thinking would be that there would be plenty of time after the war to get around to that.
Without Hitler around if the military takes over they'd probably stop it entirely because the plotters organizing against Hitler did, for all their faults, found the Holocaust completely abhorrent and was a substantial (though not primary) driver of their efforts against the Nazis:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20_July_plot#Motivation_and_goals
While the main goal of the plotters was to remove Hitler from power, they did so for various reasons. The majority of the group behind the 20 July plot were conservative nationalists—idealists, but not necessarily of a democratic stripe.[12][13] Martin Borschat portrays their motivations to a matter of aristocratic resentment, writing that the plot was mainly carried out by conservative elites who were initially integrated by the Nazi government but during the war lost their influence and were concerned about regaining it.[14] Even so, the persons involved explained their opposition to Hitler as a matter of principled opposition to Nazi policies and actions. Tresckow was appalled at SS murders of Russian prisoners.[15] Likewise, Stauffenberg had already decided that Hitler must be removed after learning of SS murders of prisoners of war and of Jews.[16] Goerdler, who was to have been Chancellor of the government installed after the coup, had publicly opposed anti-Jewish policies from the first.[17] And long after hopes of any negotiated peace had faded, Tresckow stated: "The assassination must be attempted, coûte que coûte [whatever the cost]. [Then,] even if it fails, we must take action in Berlin. . . . [W]hat matters now is that the German resistance movement must take the plunge before the eyes of the world and of history. Compared to that, nothing else matters."[18]
 
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That's dubious, people are just not in place and ready. Chances of them being able to do something meaningful, given their efforts OTL, are incredibly slim. There is also the problem that the leaders are in La La Land on what the Allied reaction will be. In Allied eyes they are as bad as Hitler ( none of them saw what happened in the East to the civilian population as anything to be sorry for, for instance ). The Allies will still laugh at the terms that are suggested and demand unconditional surrender. At this time Prussian's/German's/Nazi's were seen as the same thing ( many believed Hitler was the German military's front man ).

Germany probably collapses quicker due to disruption / loss of morale with Stalin redoubling the Red Armies attack to get as much territory as possible fearing the German's might get a separate peace( his trust of the western allies was about nil, paranoia was his middle name ) whilst the western allies will be casualty adverse seeing the end of the war in sight.

the resulting chaos involving a dead Hitler might allow them to trigger Valkyrie, which was adjusted by the resistance to prevent a takeover from the SS. Goebbels, Goring and Himmler will be arrested and/or hopefully assassinated. That way the coup is underway.
 
the resulting chaos involving a dead Hitler might allow them to trigger Valkyrie, which was adjusted by the resistance to prevent a takeover from the SS. Goebbels, Goring and Himmler will be arrested and/or hopefully assassinated. That way the coup is underway.

If the plotters couldn't do that when they actually went ahead with their operation there is no way they're gonna be able to do it on the fly
 

Deleted member 1487

If the plotters couldn't do that when they actually went ahead with their operation there is no way they're gonna be able to do it on the fly
There is the key difference in that Hitler would be dead, which IOTL scuppered the coup attempt in Berlin, as the officers that still felt bound to their loyalty oath and that enough junior level officers and soldiers still supported Hitler over a putschists that it would be impossible to pull off once Hitler announced he was still alive and people were trying to depose him, abandoned the plot/didn't side with them once it happened. There were plenty of people who wouldn't want the SS and Himmler or Goering in charge if Hitler died of non-coup related causes, so an organized army faction would be their default loyalty in the event of unclear succession.

Of course if Goering and Himmler teamed up then Goering did technically have Hitler's official endorsement as his successor, even if by 1944 that was rather stale. The question is whether or not that happens, as Himmler did have ambitions to replace Hitler. The July Plotters might end up being seen as a compromise regime, as the army in general did not like Himmler or Goering, while the public wasn't really pro-Nazi outside of Hitler.

Hitler dying unexpectedly though would catch everyone with their pants down, so no one would really have a head start in trying to take power, though arguably the Plotters were already the most advanced in preparing of the likely factions.
 
If the plotters couldn't do that when they actually went ahead with their operation there is no way they're gonna be able to do it on the fly

if you know anything about the July 20 plot then you'd know it failed because it was based on the pretext that Hitler was dead. Next to that the head of the reserve army who was the only one to be able to activate Valkyrie, Fromm, dropped his support for the cause after the failed attempt on July 15th, which didn't happen yet. If people like him hear Hitler is truly dead and the plotters contact him he might just support it fully and the ball starts rolling. and a seriosu ball it is.
 
Sigh, the Holocaust was a waste of resources, which could have been spend better elsewhere, it was also a problem for the leaders of the new regime on a personally level, when they would lose the war. In such cases the rational thing to do would be to clean up and remove the evidence. That’s not falling for the clean wehrmacht, that’s understanding basic human behavior.
But that's expecting. Sane leadership to realize this..

That said if hitter is dead.. No one ND I mean no one especially armchair cowboys would know how it would turn out. Way too many wheels in motion as well as assumptions.

Either way.. By 44 hitter dies. ( BTW.. way to late to salvage jack for Germany on his death) in Normandy..
Germany is screwed.. There is a big red machine coming its way.. And well I don't think they (they being the soviets) care until they get to Berlin. It's just way to late in the game unless the Germans have some asb in a closet somewhere.. Himmler.. Goering.. Whom ever.. Doesn't matter. War is already lost and Germany is screwed for its crimes as it should be.

Noone Is letting them off the hook
 
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if you know anything about the July 20 plot then you'd know it failed because it was based on the pretext that Hitler was dead. Next to that the head of the reserve army who was the only one to be able to activate Valkyrie, Fromm, dropped his support for the cause after the failed attempt on July 15th, which didn't happen yet. If people like him hear Hitler is truly dead and the plotters contact him he might just support it fully and the ball starts rolling. and a seriosu ball it is.

I also know the July 20 plot failed because it was a poorly planned shitshow led by delusional Generals who thought they could somehow negotiate with the allies which would have had little chance of success even if Hitler was dead and it's successful execution and seizing control of all of Germany hinged on everything going right. I highly highly doubt the plotters would be able to successfully arrest Goering and Himmler given how they'll be very flatfooted by Hitlers death which means a German civil war and in all honesty it's a war I do not see the plotters winning
 
I also know the July 20 plot failed because it was a poorly planned shitshow led by delusional Generals who thought they could somehow negotiate with the allies which would have had little chance of success even if Hitler was dead and it's successful execution and seizing control of all of Germany hinged on everything going right. I highly highly doubt the plotters would be able to successfully arrest Goering and Himmler given how they'll be very flatfooted by Hitlers death which means a German civil war and in all honesty it's a war I do not see the plotters winning

It doesn't matter if they succeed or not, the point is they will start it and the ball starts rolling because the people needed for it to be implemented were into the plot. Originally the biggest problem they had was caused by delays and indecision because they didn't know 100 percent sure Hitler was dead and several key figures weren't convinced enough to cooperate(including Fromm). This will not be case and the operation can be started much faster, even if a lot of people are not in their place, they arestill in their stations and once communication starts, the rest will follow.

In the original July 20 plot Goebbels was nearly arrested, only Hitler himself prevented it. Several high ranking people were arrested and many place in both Germany and occupied territory supported the coup. if it had gone faster and it was 100 percent sure Hitler was dead, the coup could cripple the Nazi regime permanently(which it already is since Hitler is dead), even if it wouldn't fully succeed. perhaps if it starts to collapse orders are given to start executions.

Also don't forget they are German Generals, not simple peasants.
 
The issue with the Engima thing is that it's a military code, not a high level strategic one, so likely there would be very little showing up on Engima, because Hitler's MO was surprise and with little warning to make sure that his enemies couldn't plan ahead to assassinate him. The Lorenz machine would probably have news about it...but then Hitler was in France in June 1944 and the Allies didn't try and bomb his bunker, which was surprisingly close to the front:

I was thinking of something more in line with the intel that got Yamamoto killed. I.E. A friend of a friend in hitlers staff contacts a friend stationed in Normandy to “have your troops polish their buttons, hitler is coming!” sometimes slip-ups like that are more damning than intricate plots.

Ric350
 
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