Hitler invades the Baltic countries in March 1939

What if, instead of invading Czechia in March 1939, Hitler would have invaded and occupied the Baltic countries instead?

FTR, Hitler's logic behind this move would be that Germany needs more Lebensraum and that the Baltic countries are the easiest place for Germany to get Lebensraum in the near term.

How would Britain, France, Italy, the Soviet Union, Poland, Romania, the United States of America, and other countries react to such a move by Nazi Germany in March 1939?
 
Technically, the UK, France, Italy and Japan should all declare war on Germany because of the Klaipėda Convention.
 
Hitler's credibility in the eyes of the West goes away as it did IOTL after Czechoslovakia, since after Memel there are no reasons at all for Germans to occupy Lithuania (Latvia and Estonia were stongly influenced by German culture with significant German minorities), not to mention he had sworn Sudetenland was his last demand. USSR will be nervous, with German troops so close to Leningrad. That might also butterfly away Ribentropp-Molotov Pact. Would they intervene? Possibly, but doubtful.
Poles will be unhappy with their border with Germany getting even longer and while Polish-Lithuanian relations were ice-cold, the relations between Poland and Latvia were pretty decent.
The West will be furious, but that would be it. Will there be an armed intervention? Without Soviets I doubt it. But USSR might be more willing to cooperate with the West after that.
However, IMO it is almost ASB for Hitler to invade Baltic States in 1939: occupation of Czechoslovakia gave him Czech reserves of gold, control over strong industry (including arms industry) and another good base against Poland. Baltic states can offer him much less - only a good base against Poland and USSR, which obviously would worry Stalin.
 
Not to mention that Germany is royally scr*wed in 1940 since it does not have early access to the Czech tank factories.
OTL around one quarter of German tanks in 1940 were from Czech origin.
 
What if, instead of invading Czechia in March 1939, Hitler would have invaded and occupied the Baltic countries instead?

FTR, Hitler's logic behind this move would be that Germany needs more Lebensraum and that the Baltic countries are the easiest place for Germany to get Lebensraum in the near term.

How would Britain, France, Italy, the Soviet Union, Poland, Romania, the United States of America, and other countries react to such a move by Nazi Germany in March 1939?

The Czech munitions plants as well as the tanks and vehicles would be missed by Germany in the event of war with the Entente or Soviet Union. That alone is a fairly serious problem for the next year or two.

The Baltic countries were formerly part of Russia, invading them sends a pretty clear signal to Stalin about long term German intentions, as well as exposing Leningrad to greater danger. I think the Soviet Union would make the reasonable assumption that they are the eventual target and adjust their foreign policy and military strategy accordingly, they might even try to annex some of the Baltic states as Germany begins the invasion.

Picking off weaker countries sends a signal to Poland and indeed any small neighbour of Germany that they could be next, I imagine all would look to align with a strong power. Poland is in a tough spot of course and probably has to stick with trying to be supported by France and the UK.

The UK and France probably assume that a major war is likely and increase their rearmament, but perhaps hope that it starts between Germany and the Soviet Union first.
 
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This is not a good idea for Germany, time was the key. They needed time, or rather Hitler needed time for his plans. Taking the Baltics doesn't help any of those plans. Sure, a possibility for "lebensraum" but that was not really the concern of Germany at that time and the Baltics not really the vision for the amount of raum they had in mind. All it creates is a huge border with the Soviet Union, and a rowdy population that might actually fight and certainly create a resistance(with support from the Soviets of course). Next to that its going to increase world tension dramatically, maybe even spark war. This is going to drain more than support Germany, like Czechoslovakia would.
 
Technically, the UK, France, Italy and Japan should all declare war on Germany because of the Klaipėda Convention.
Yes, they should, but would they actually have the nerve and spine to do this?

Hitler's credibility in the eyes of the West goes away as it did IOTL after Czechoslovakia, since after Memel there are no reasons at all for Germans to occupy Lithuania (Latvia and Estonia were stongly influenced by German culture with significant German minorities),

Hitler needs Lithuania to have easy access to Latvia and Estonia.

not to mention he had sworn Sudetenland was his last demand.

That was just for the British and French crowds.

USSR will be nervous, with German troops so close to Leningrad. That might also butterfly away Ribentropp-Molotov Pact. Would they intervene? Possibly, but doubtful.
Poles will be unhappy with their border with Germany getting even longer and while Polish-Lithuanian relations were ice-cold, the relations between Poland and Latvia were pretty decent.
The West will be furious, but that would be it. Will there be an armed intervention? Without Soviets I doubt it. But USSR might be more willing to cooperate with the West after that.

Understood.

However, IMO it is almost ASB for Hitler to invade Baltic States in 1939: occupation of Czechoslovakia gave him Czech reserves of gold, control over strong industry (including arms industry) and another good base against Poland. Baltic states can offer him much less - only a good base against Poland and USSR, which obviously would worry Stalin.

What about occupying both Czechia and the Baltic countries?
 
Originally posted by AmericanWarrior
Hitler needs Lithuania to have easy access to Latvia and Estonia.

Yes, and invasion of Belgium to get better access to France worked so well in WW1. Purely politically, of course. Besides, if East Prussia was separated from main part of Germany, why couldn't Estonia and Latvia. Not to mention Hitler would need to expalin why exactly he needs to invade those 2 contries, since Germans were never persecuted there. AFAIK.

That was just for the British and French crowds.
But those crowds had real influence of British and French politics, not to mention Chamberlain seemed to have honestly believed Hitler's word. It was after occupation of Czechoslovakia that Britain decided that Germany can not be trusted and offered guarantees to Poland.

What about occupying both Czechia and the Baltic countries?
Technically possible, IMO, but expensive and pisses the West even more. What is more important, it alienates USSR. Stalin would never be happy with German Panzers about 100 km from Leningrad.
 
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