alternatehistory.com

Recycle alert: I originally posted this on my webpage in March 1998. I'll leave the text intact, but I may add commentary where I think things clearly wouldn't work the way I have them working.

[SIZE=+1]Summary:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]What Actually Happened[/SIZE]: [SIZE=+1]Hitler went after the Caucasus oil without defeating the Soviet army.[/SIZE]


[SIZE=+1][/SIZE][SIZE=+1]What Might Have Happened: Hitler goes for Moscow in summer 1942.[/SIZE]


[SIZE=+1][/SIZE][SIZE=+1]Short-Term Consequences:[/SIZE]



  • [SIZE=+1]The Russians are hurt but not knocked out.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Allies push forward North Africa Landings (Bad move)[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]US changes emphasis to Japan[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Hitler rewards Vichy France for resisting North Africa landings (real bad move)[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Russians try to rescue Moscow (Bad move)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Medium-term consequences [/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1] [/SIZE]

  • [SIZE=+1]Early 1943--Eastern Front -- Germans head south after oil[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Early 1943--Southern Front - Axis forces pushed back into French held Tunisia. What role will the Vichy French play? [/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Early 1943--Western Front - US wants to invade Northern France Britain says no.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Late 1943--Southern Front - Hitler invades Vichy France and gets a nasty surprise.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Late 1943--Western Front - Major allied raids in Northern France. The US decides to try to stay.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]Late 1943--Eastern Front - Germans get somewhat further than they did in 1943, then the Soviets hit them hard.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=+1]1943--Pacific War - Allied progress in Burma, but no breakthrough yet.[/SIZE]
Note: This scenario was inspired by Richard Overy's excellent book Why The Allies Won. I also thank Doug Bryhan for helping me refine my views on the impact of the fall of Moscow on the Soviet system
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