Since I'm uncurable Polonocentric, who's in charge in Poland in 1946? Is general Sikorski still alive or did his plane still crashed in Gibraltar or somewhere else? If he's alive, he is most probably still in charge, as the Prime Minister and Commander in Chief.
Plane crashes are low enough frequency events that I'm guessing it doesn't happen, unless there were factors that increased the likelihood. Obviously that's just a guess. As you get further away from the point of divergence the fate of individuals becomes more and more a matter of guesswork. Just a few examples:
Historically, George Bush Senior got shot down in the Pacific theatre in September 1944 and the other two people in his plane died. In this scenario, he's probably nowhere near where he historically got shot down. Does he survive the war unscathed? Does he die or suffer serious injuries? In any case, the George Bush junior of our time-line, born in 1946, would almost certainly never have existed, though someone very like him might have been born at close to the same time and had the same name. He wouldn't be genetically the George Bush junior of our time-line--more like a brother.
Both JFK and Joe Kennedy junior faced life-threatening situations in our time-line. Joe died. JFK lived as a hero. In this scenario we could have any combination of they both lived, they both died, Joe lived and JFK died, or the historic combination. Then you add in possibilities that one or both received injuries of various severity.