This is pretty much out there, but I'm curious for feedback.
Hitler was notorious for his hunches; the allies caving in at Munich over Czechloslovokia, the quick overthrow of France and the allies being unprepared for the Ardennes Offensive among others. But it failed him over Poland, he was positive that England and France wouldn't declare war. But they did.
Suppose he gets a hunch the allies aren't bluffing. But the deal with Stalin is already in place. So Hitler gets a totally Machiiavellian idea...
September 1st, 1939: Soviet forces invade eastern Poland. But on the western front German forces on the border do nothing. Stalin's agents report a lot of radio traffic between the allies and Germany.
Suddenly an announcement is made. Hitler is furious over the unprovoked invasion and offers German support. The troops on the border pour into Poland to meet the Soviets. Meanwhile the Luftwaffe flies sortie after sortie over Poland in support of the outnumbered Poles.
It's a brilliant move. Hitler gets his war against Russia and also buys some credability with the west.
The Winter War hasn't happened but Stalin has been threatening Finland so they might throw in with Germany. And Hitler will make this a crusade.
The biggest stumbling block is that the German Army of 1939 is nowhere nearly as well-equipped or well-trained as the Army of 1941. Without a _lot_ of support Germany will get bogged down just as they did in 1941.
Any thoughts?