Hitler Doesn't Declare War on the US After Pearl Harbor

Was reading the chapter in Perrett's HOW TO LOSE WWII about the reasons Hitler declared war on the US after Pearl Harbor (and they weren't very good ones either). But it got me thinking...

With the attack on Pearl as well as the other Japanese moves both the US and the UK are at war with Japan. What if Hitler tries to make a deal with them? The Afrika Korps will pull back to Libya, ending the Desert War (Italy gets to keep Greece as a placebo). All hostilities in Europe end at the status quo. This allows the UK to send all available forces to the Pacific while the US only has to concentrate on Japan. Of course, one caveat is Lend Lease to Russia must end. This allows Hitler to throw all available forces (less the Afrika Korps plus what has to remain in France, Norway, etc). against Russia.

Honestly I can't see Churchill going for it, but would the government?

FWIW, I still don't see Germany defeating Russia. At best the disasters of 1942-43 now end up in 1943-44. I do see the War in the Pacific ending by 1944, only waiting for the bomb to avoid having to invade (mining and subs keep Japan impotent). At this point the West can't really sit by and watch Stalin move too far west, so what happens now?

As I said, pretty farfetched but still a head-scratcher. Awaiting reader's opinions...
 
The US would declare war on Germany. Especially since Britain is already at war with Japan, and war fervor is at an all-time high.
 
The US would declare war on Germany. Especially since Britain is already at war with Japan, and war fervor is at an all-time high.

FDR would have loved to declare war on Germany at the same time as Japan. It is worth noting that he DIDN'T. Perhaps becuase he believed, with good reason, that Congress wouldn't support a declaration of war?

The IJN attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7th.
FDR made his "day of infamy" speach and the US declared war on Japan on the 8th.

Hitler (and Mussolini) declared war on the US on the 11th, after which the US declared war on Germany (and Italy).
 
The US would declare war on Germany. Especially since Britain is already at war with Japan, and war fervor is at an all-time high.

If FDR could have he would have done so along with Japan. As war with Japan drags on German U Boats keep attacking US shipping it would become much more likely. At least 6 more months would be needed but by then US focus would be fully on the Pacific.

Michael
 
Um, Oh my... why?

Being rational what Germany needs is peace in the West. Japan going to war with UK, USA, etc might create an opening if handled correctly; but its very low order outcome IMHO. A friend on another forum had this as Germany's move.

While FDR is giving his Day of Infamy speech in congress the German, Italian and all the minor / puppet European Axis Ambassadors are meeting with whatever 2nd / 3rd string news paper people are available on the steps of the capital building. They announce that Axis Europe declares war on Japan and is ready to send troops and ships to drive Japan back. All that is needed is for President Roosevelt to talk to Churchill to deal with their 'minor' misunderstanding in Europe.

The Average American would at this point be somewhat confused by any DOW attempt vs. Germany. As the Japanese tide expands across the Pacific the deal would look better and better.


Again very unlikely but not impossible. If peace is made with UK Stalin would panic and odds are accept just about any deal that didn't involve him ending up against the wall. Stalin was sure the West was going to screw him over sooner or later.

Michael
 

Markus

Banned
Um, Oh my... why?

To prevent or at least delay FDR from declaring war on Germany. After all the USA had already started a shooting war with the German Navy.

Realistically no german DoW would not have made a difference. IIRC FDR had already ordered the USN to take even more agressive action aginst the KM, so an official DoW by the USA would have been made once a few more DD had been sunk.
 
I saw a version of Churchill's Iron Curtain speech given in a world were America stayed out of Europe. Something like from the North Cape to the Pyrannees, and Iron Curtain has descended across the face of Europe...
 
Lets see what can be made of this...

January, US continues secret talks between Ambassador Leahey & Petain. Germans think they have the minutes of those meetings, but in fact those are planted by French intelligence officers.

February, US dispatches reinforcements to the Pacific, continuing on reinforcements sent in December & January. A large "Australian convoy" is assembled in the Gulf & eastern seaboard ports.

March, German learn from their spies about a British Operation Gymnast, of which the object is to seize Morroco and western Algeria. bits about follow on operations leak to the Germans as well. The Germans remind the French of their Armistice agreement obligation to prevent Germanys enemies from entering French colonies, and demand expanded inspections of French defense preparations. The French demand from the Germans permission to reinforce their Africa colonies with US weapons to keep the Brits out. Hitler orders accelerated preparations for capturing Malta, and plans be prepared for counter invading French North Africa. The US sends more reinforcements to the Pacific, including the first Australian convoy from the Gulf coast ports via Panama. Germans obtain information that the US intends to send massive Australian convoys via the south Atlantic as the Panama cannal is over scheduled.

April: US Australian convoys depart & are reported by German agents. Brit command raids decend again on the French coast. the Germans learn Gymnast may be a deception op. The British gymnast force departs the UK, and first makes a demonstration off the Normandy coast, then reassembles further out to sea. Germans receive more information from spies in the UK that Brittainy is the target of the Brits. Massive bomber raids start in western France and the invasion force is spotted headed towards various points on the Breaton coast by German air reconnisance. Hitler orders all available renforcement to western France, including the Malta invasion force & other reserves in the Med. Brit navy starts bombarding beaches in Brittainy....

...US lead Australian convoy is reported passing the straits of Gibraltar, then turns into Algerian ports. Helpful French harbor pilots guide the US ships to the docks. Germans are late getting the word about this as all their spies in Algerian are silent as are their Armistice Commission Representatives. Simultaneously US convoys dock in Morrocan ports, and 'fast' convoy of warships speed through the night to Tunis & Bizerte. The US aircraft carriers launch a wave of modern fighters in French colors & manned by French pilots. The US cargo ships discharge three corps of ground troops, and material for the French army.

Petain dissembles to the German ambassador saying all this was necessary to prevent the Brits from invading and the US ships are only carrying supplies and "technicians". The Brit fleet disperses with the convoy & escorts for Egypt carrying on to the South Atlantic & Horn, the remainder returning the UK ports.

After about 48 hours of this the Germans finally figure out they have been misled, the US has a army disembarking in French Africa along with aircraft, the US has a fleet positioned in the Med to protect its convoys to French ports, the Brits just pulled off a fake invasion which have up all sort of information on how the Germans would react to a invasion, and the Italian supply line to Libya is in danger should the US actually be at war with Germany.
 
Lets see what can be made of this...

January, US continues secret talks between Ambassador Leahey & Petain. Germans think they have the minutes of those meetings, but in fact those are planted by French intelligence officers.

February, US dispatches reinforcements to the Pacific, continuing on reinforcements sent in December & January. A large "Australian convoy" is assembled in the Gulf & eastern seaboard ports.

March, German learn from their spies about a British Operation Gymnast, of which the object is to seize Morroco and western Algeria. bits about follow on operations leak to the Germans as well. The Germans remind the French of their Armistice agreement obligation to prevent Germanys enemies from entering French colonies, and demand expanded inspections of French defense preparations. The French demand from the Germans permission to reinforce their Africa colonies with US weapons to keep the Brits out. Hitler orders accelerated preparations for capturing Malta, and plans be prepared for counter invading French North Africa. The US sends more reinforcements to the Pacific, including the first Australian convoy from the Gulf coast ports via Panama. Germans obtain information that the US intends to send massive Australian convoys via the south Atlantic as the Panama cannal is over scheduled.

April: US Australian convoys depart & are reported by German agents. Brit command raids decend again on the French coast. the Germans learn Gymnast may be a deception op. The British gymnast force departs the UK, and first makes a demonstration off the Normandy coast, then reassembles further out to sea. Germans receive more information from spies in the UK that Brittainy is the target of the Brits. Massive bomber raids start in western France and the invasion force is spotted headed towards various points on the Breaton coast by German air reconnisance. Hitler orders all available renforcement to western France, including the Malta invasion force & other reserves in the Med. Brit navy starts bombarding beaches in Brittainy....

...US lead Australian convoy is reported passing the straits of Gibraltar, then turns into Algerian ports. Helpful French harbor pilots guide the US ships to the docks. Germans are late getting the word about this as all their spies in Algerian are silent as are their Armistice Commission Representatives. Simultaneously US convoys dock in Morrocan ports, and 'fast' convoy of warships speed through the night to Tunis & Bizerte. The US aircraft carriers launch a wave of modern fighters in French colors & manned by French pilots. The US cargo ships discharge three corps of ground troops, and material for the French army.

Petain dissembles to the German ambassador saying all this was necessary to prevent the Brits from invading and the US ships are only carrying supplies and "technicians". The Brit fleet disperses with the convoy & escorts for Egypt carrying on to the South Atlantic & Horn, the remainder returning the UK ports.

After about 48 hours of this the Germans finally figure out they have been misled, the US has a army disembarking in French Africa along with aircraft, the US has a fleet positioned in the Med to protect its convoys to French ports, the Brits just pulled off a fake invasion which have up all sort of information on how the Germans would react to a invasion, and the Italian supply line to Libya is in danger should the US actually be at war with Germany.


Why on God's name would the US send arms to Vichy France?:confused::confused::confused:
 
Er, French north Africa is now full of US forces. It's not Vichy French any more...

As for other effects, Operation Drumbeat never happens, removing the severe shipping losses of early 1942. Or it does happen, forcing a DoW and a return to something like OTL.
 
Was reading the chapter in Perrett's HOW TO LOSE WWII about the reasons Hitler declared war on the US after Pearl Harbor (and they weren't very good ones either). But it got me thinking...

With the attack on Pearl as well as the other Japanese moves both the US and the UK are at war with Japan. What if Hitler tries to make a deal with them? The Afrika Korps will pull back to Libya, ending the Desert War (Italy gets to keep Greece as a placebo). All hostilities in Europe end at the status quo. This allows the UK to send all available forces to the Pacific while the US only has to concentrate on Japan. Of course, one caveat is Lend Lease to Russia must end. This allows Hitler to throw all available forces (less the Afrika Korps plus what has to remain in France, Norway, etc). against Russia.

Honestly I can't see Churchill going for it, but would the government?

FWIW, I still don't see Germany defeating Russia. At best the disasters of 1942-43 now end up in 1943-44. I do see the War in the Pacific ending by 1944, only waiting for the bomb to avoid having to invade (mining and subs keep Japan impotent). At this point the West can't really sit by and watch Stalin move too far west, so what happens now?

As I said, pretty farfetched but still a head-scratcher. Awaiting reader's opinions...

One problem with this is the USSR, which at that time was already allied with the UK. Bailing out of the UK was not so easily done in such a case, besides the simple fact the war already had reached a point of no return in diplomatic relations between the UK and Germany. With that came the UK-USA bonding, which FDR already had created mostly and could not turn back from it as well, US domestic politics, or not. The fact the USA already were building weapons and ships for warfighting nations (UK and USSR) made things beyond that point of shifting priorities.
 

Cyan

Banned
If the Germans DW Japan. Shift attention back to Nat China. And call for general european peace-summit with all war participants + neutrals + US they might get the best possible deal they can in WW2 short of being able to destroy the USSR. Which is very unlikely anyway.

If at such a state the Germans are really determined to get "peace at any cost" in the negotiations they would most likely be able to keep all pre-war gains + Polish corridor + Puppets from the former SSR's that the USSR cant re-capture in time before the negotiations conclude + Alsac + preferential trades from Scandinavian countries and some minor French colonies and parts of Eqypt to Italy that don't compromise British defences as well as minor border corrections on Yugoslavia and Greece.

In exchange the Germans would most likely have to withdraw, demobilize, agree to have their demobilization overseen by a proto-UN and to send most of their active army to front line duties against the Japanese to Chinese soil supplied by the Allies.

Anything short of these and the peace wouldn't hold.

If this happens then as soon as the war with Ger-SU ends as per peace treaty then SU attacks Manchuria. Germany aids Nat-China. And the combined and at peace Ger-Ita-Axisminor(What ever token force that would be)-UK-US-Commonwealth-SU navy nails Japan to the wall and the various Japanese colonies and territories are divided by the victorious allies and everyone calls it a day and goes home.

Post war will be very strained and tenuous but if all parties really work towards it, it can hold.
 
If the Germans DW Japan. Shift attention back to Nat China. And call for general european peace-summit with all war participants + neutrals + US they might get the best possible deal they can in WW2 short of being able to destroy the USSR. Which is very unlikely anyway.

If at such a state the Germans are really determined to get "peace at any cost" in the negotiations they would most likely be able to keep all pre-war gains + Polish corridor + Puppets from the former SSR's that the USSR cant re-capture in time before the negotiations conclude + Alsac + preferential trades from Scandinavian countries and some minor French colonies and parts of Eqypt to Italy that don't compromise British defences as well as minor border corrections on Yugoslavia and Greece.

In exchange the Germans would most likely have to withdraw, demobilize, agree to have their demobilization overseen by a proto-UN and to send most of their active army to front line duties against the Japanese to Chinese soil supplied by the Allies.

Anything short of these and the peace wouldn't hold.

If this happens then as soon as the war with Ger-SU ends as per peace treaty then SU attacks Manchuria. Germany aids Nat-China. And the combined and at peace Ger-Ita-Axisminor(What ever token force that would be)-UK-US-Commonwealth-SU navy nails Japan to the wall and the various Japanese colonies and territories are divided by the victorious allies and everyone calls it a day and goes home.

Post war will be very strained and tenuous but if all parties really work towards it, it can hold.

Considering that Hitler had demonstrated very thoroughly that he could not be trusted to hold up his end of any agreement, why would any of the European combatants even show up for negotiations? Also, the US was firmly in the Allied camp by the time of the Pearl Harbor attack, the USN and KM were in a defacto state of war and the US was sending tons of materiel to the Allies, the only thing lacking was an active role in fighting the Germans.

EDIT: Also, stabbing the Japanese in the back would have other rather unfortunate side effects. How would the other members of the Axis react? You know like the Italians or even the Romanians who the Germans are getting the lion's share of their oil from, and simply deciding to occupy all of the axis members that choose to opt out of the alliance is hardly the most practical of solutions as not only are they now losing everything said axis members were providing but now have to divert resources to occupy said nations. Worse, it could cause a massive chain reaction where the situation quickly spirals out of control and Germany is truly standing alone against all of Europe. The best option for Nazi Germany was to simply not ally with Japan in the first place.
 
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Some ideas for a Germany Dow against Japan branch to the ATL.

Germany, or at least AH, is suddenly infused with something approaching wisdom.:rolleyes:

He takes a look at the lack of an 'Eastern Front' for the soviets, and then looks at what will happen if he takes Germany to war with yet another nation that is individually industrially stronger and more heavily populated than all of Germany.;)

He therefore uses his best ability, his Oratory abilities, to condemn the Japanese for launching yet another sneak attack-war.

He then publicly offers German assistance to the USA, just as soon as the USA can barter a peace deal in europe, which must include terms such that:

The USN, the RN, and the KM are to be equal size as like in the WNT.

USN, RN, KM = 5
Japan = 3
Italy = 1.75
France = 1.75
Spain = 1.75
Scandinavia = 1.75

German trade and access to the worlds oceans can never again be interfeered with by GB or any other European nation, and to this end, a Pan-European coastal trade allaince is to come into being, such that all trade with the European continent is made availible to all member nations, and actions against one nation's trade shall constitute an act of war against all member nations. Nations like Spain, Italy, France, Belguim, Holland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Germany would be the immediate member nations.

Basically, Germany wants to make it impossible to get cut off from the world markets ever again, and thus clears the way for an all or nothing war in the east. {Which they will loose}:eek:
 

Cyan

Banned
Considering that Hitler had demonstrated very thoroughly that he could not be trusted to hold up his end of any agreement, why would any of the European combatants even show up for negotiations?
For PR and to embarrass the Germans by making public their inevitably over-inflated demands and pompous attitudes. Nothing like a good PR stunt to lift up sagging moral. Simply requesting that such a meeting be attended by top level Nazi's and that it be held in a "neutral" location that is suitably pro-allied to ensure that its a allied run dog and pony show by allied run media and you'll get the PR win for sure.

Just have the initial conditions for negotiation commencements be so outrageous to any sane Nazi's that it in itself will be a sign of good faith.

Imagine that the negotiation conditions be that the allies be allowed to fly one long range bomber to Berlin and pick up the Axis delegation and fly them to the USS SomethingAwesomeAndSuited parked in the UK from where they'll be flown to NY where they will be "suitably entertained" for the duration of the negotiations and you'll see if the Axis are actually serious by who they'll send. Anyone but top level Nazi representatives (not counting Hitler or Mussolini personally but 2nd in command or around that level of responsibility).

Also, the US was firmly in the Allied camp by the time of the Pearl Harbor attack, the USN and KM were in a defacto state of war and the US was sending tons of materiel to the Allies, the only thing lacking was an active role in fighting the Germans.

Exactly, its the last shot for one final round of diplomacy before everyone knows that it will be a Ground war in Europe that costs the allies (including USSR) millions, and the Axis dozens of millions in dead before the war is over. Its that last shot before all hell breaks lose. They might be willing to listen to an honest shot, but they have to be damn sure its honest.

EDIT: Also, stabbing the Japanese in the back would have other rather unfortunate side effects.

Yes but less unfortunate than facing the US+Commonwealth+USSR after the failure of Barb has.

How would the other members of the Axis react?

Irrelevant after the failure of Barbarossa. After it failed to topple the USSR in a single year as predicted, everyone except the most fanatically suicidal world conquest style Nazi's knew that this was it. They were literally begging for peace behind the scenes starting from early 1942. Which would be around this time. I doubt even Rommel believed in victory after the first defeats of 1941 fall. Least of all not after they werent even able to take Moscow, which Napoleon did and still lost. Most of them knew by this state, especially after the US entry into the war that this was it.

You know like the Italians or even the Romanians who the Germans are getting the lion's share of their oil from, and simply deciding to occupy all of the axis members that choose to opt out of the alliance is hardly the most practical of solutions as not only are they now losing everything said axis members were providing but now have to divert resources to occupy said
nations.

Everyone but the most suicidal axis nations Would agree to a peace.

Only real Axis border corrections at this point would be:

Most axis gain parts of Yugoslavia.
Italy and Bulgaria gain parts of Greece.
Germany gains AL
Italy gains parts of Eqypt and Sudan that the British are willing to part with at this point, which would most likely be nothing at all except a short strip of desert in Italy-Eqypt border, but if the UK are feeling remarkably generous, they might part with a part of Sudan in exchange for better conditions elsewhere in negotiation process.
Poland loses Polish Corridor + A semi-"resonable" border correction in favor of Germany.
Finland gains minor parts of USSR to make its border more easily defensible, return of pre-war territory in full + return of war indemnities.

Neutrals gain:
Independence for Baltics.
NATO that starts in 1942 with most of OTL 1942 German military stock given over to NATO minors for free.
Guarantee for UN style common defense against all attempts by Germany for a military solution backed by UK and US and USSR and all of the former German military gear that is now in UK/US possession.

That's about it. In exchange, the allies gain:

UN oversight of German disarmament (this means de-facto but NOT de-jure occupation for several years).
Germany handing over most of her military gear, Other axis hand over as much as they want or don't want. Germany would be willing to throw them all under the bus if it means she gets to keep pre-war + above. So they will most likely co-operate.
A German Field Army (or two or three)battle hardened and determined to show their worth in an effort to maintain peace in their homeland which hinges on their professional and suitably bloody conduct against Japan.
Diplomatic dominance over most of Europe and the World that is now suitably afraid of German Resurgence but suitably guaranteed by the UN occupation that it wont happen to still join NATO.

The allies that lose in Europe would gain in the Far-East as the quick and effective collapse of the Japanese under such enormous pressure would result in wide swaths of former colonies that are now open for economic exploitation. Including "rebuilding contracts" in China after the Japanese are suitably evicted.

France would be the biggest loser, but after the collapse in 1940, no one really cares, since Versailles was generally seen as a France failure even at thi state in the war. In combination with some of the allies still feeling that while a German victory would be unlikely, it might be possible and as such this would be a tremendously good deal. France would be hard pressed to complain since they would have some internal politics to sort out with, especially with the Vichy / France in exile thing. UK would just breath easy that it got out of this one without trench warfare. The US population would be happy that it can return to peace, and the allied minors would just be glad to get their countries back and to have Germany occupied by the UN (the US, in effect.)


Short of that, Pre-War borders app

Worse, it could cause a massive chain reaction where the situation quickly spirals out of control and Germany is truly standing alone against all of Europe. The best option for Nazi Germany was to simply not ally with Japan in the first place.


It could, in fact its probably the most likely outcome, that it would result in a Germany VS the World. But strategic planning indicates to everyone even on AH that Germany is toast if it cant beat USSR in one year, this was obvious to the German staff at this point as well.

For many in Germany, it would be a question of "do we settle for a really good show and the next generation" or "Do we try to get everything now."

Its not impossible to think that Hitler might try to end it with one massive diplomatic coup that no one expect him to do, and that's to actually go for peace at this state and then just withdraw to Munich to continue painting.

We'd be reading "Hitler and the art of the deception in warfare " all the way to the 41st millennium if he pulled it off.

Not saying its likely, saying its possible but very difficult to do and like most of H mans stunts, not that impossible to fathom.
 
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