Hitler does not enter Czecho-Slovakia in 1939

Churchill

Banned
Hitler does not enter Czecho-Slovakia in 1939.
How will effect the second world war.
Would the UK and France still go to war over the invasion of Poland?
 
Hitler does not enter Czecho-Slovakia in 1939.
How will effect the second world war.
Would the UK and France still go to war over the invasion of Poland?

Yes as to France and Britain going to war. As to how it effects things, Chechoslovakia probably follows the route of supplying the Nazis to help prevent invasion.

You would have to ask why, given Hitlers mentality he would not invade though.
 
My impression is that the occupation of the rest of Czechoslovakia, in total contrast to the agreement made a Munich months earlier, caused huge shock and anger in London and Paris and folk worked out that Hitler was not to be trusted.

Without that I do not think there would have been specific promises to Poland.

I think it possible that Hitler would have ended up with Poland and Czechoslovakia without war - though with deep hostility
 

Susano

Banned
Yepp. Without Hitler breaking the Munich agreement, there would be no immidate war. Hitler would at first start the whole negotiation route over the corridor yet again, and Germany still has many sympathies over that issue in other countries, especially Great Britain (less so in France, of course...).

Of course, Hitler wanted war, so that might be irrelevant.
 
Yepp. Without Hitler breaking the Munich agreement, there would be no immidate war. Hitler would at first start the whole negotiation route over the corridor yet again, and Germany still has many sympathies over that issue in other countries, especially Great Britain (less so in France, of course...).

Of course, note that by the early 30s a substantial number of France's "elite" were willing to give Germany the corridor.
 

General Zod

Banned
Yes as to France and Britain going to war.

No. This cannot be assumed. Hitler's betrayal of the recent Munich accords was what persuaded the British that he could not be trusted about anything and that seeking further compromise with him about German claims was useless.

If Nazi Germany leaves the Czechoslovakia rump with nominal independence (there was no doubt that geopolitical and geoeconomical realities would place it in the German Sphere of influence sooner rather than later, but economic and political penetration of Germany in Central and Eastern Europe was not a problem for Britain, outright military conquest was), this shall be seen as good proof that the Munich approach is productive and and the same method be applied to any claims that Germany will make on Poland. Of course, Bohemia-Moravia was rather more economically precious than any other possible conquest in Central and Eastern Europe, except Ukraine and Romanian oilfields, and historically it was an integral pat of the old Reich, so it was somewhat hard to give up its integral possession for Nazi Germany expansionism.

The Polish will be given no blanket garantees nor military alliance by the UK. Britain and France shall seek a compromise between stated German claims and what they deem as "reasonable", and if any can be found, they shall give Poland the choice of accepting it or facing Germany alone.

Whether Poland would accept it or not would be anyone's guess.

As to how it effects things, Chechoslovakia probably follows the route of supplying the Nazis to help prevent invasion.

You would have to ask why, given Hitlers mentality he would not invade though.

Well, this is the crux of the matter, wouldn't it ? Why Hitler would give up conquest of Bohemia and Moravia. After Munich, he regretted the deal had prevented him of the opportunity to ride in Prague as a conqueror. Theoretically, he could have easily used economic and political pressure (the Slovaks were in Germany's pocket, and with them, Czechia was completely encircled) to make them a fascist satellite much like Bulgaria, Hungary, or Romania. True, Germany would have not able to exploit Czech industries, natural resources, and weapon stashes (their tanks were good) as efficiently as with occupation, nor use their gold reserves to stave off German debts, but "soft" dominance would have caused no outrage in London.

Therefore, either Hitler has a flash of insight, and realizes occupation of Prague would push the UK government against the wall, or he is no longer in charge. of course, this also matters about the true aims of Nazi Germany in Poland. Historically, they mainly sought to make Poland a colony. Now, if by the same change of strategy that causes the PoD, they would instead seek to make Poland a German satellite, and only annex their long-standing national claims (Danzig, the Corridor, Upper Silesia), it is highly probable that without the betrayal of Prague, the UK will be quite amenable to concede that in Munich II. And France shall always follow the lead of London, no matter how reluctantly.

If Poland accepts, the road is paved for a clash of titans between Germany and the USSR in a couple of years, with Britain and France spectators cheering for mutual exaustion or a German compromise victory. Or possibly, is Stalin makes something dumb that paints the URSS as the true aggressor, say an invasion of Finland or Romania, an anti-Soviet alliance between Britain and Germany. Again a WWII, but with URSS as the rogue state. Italy would enthusiastically join the anti-communist crusade, France might as well or stay neutral. What would Japan do is a wild guess, they might just as likely attack in Siberia or go South. The USA shall stay neutral unless Pearl Harbor occurs.

If Poland refuses a Munich deal, well, Paris and London shall wash their hands clean of the stubborn Poles, and Warshaw will be crushed in a quick campaign. The URSS will invade Eastern Poland very soon after the start of the Polish-German war, with or without a previous deal with Germany, to protect their claims.
 
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General Zod

Banned
Yepp. Without Hitler breaking the Munich agreement, there would be no immidate war. Hitler would at first start the whole negotiation route over the corridor yet again, and Germany still has many sympathies over that issue in other countries, especially Great Britain (less so in France, of course...).

So very true. Although I really expect that they would also raise the issue of Upper Silesia as well, the area was too precious economically.

Of course, Hitler wanted war, so that might be irrelevant.

Very true OTL, but it is reasonable to assume that whatever PoD makes him (or his successor) content with the satellization of Czechia, also operates to moderate his aims on Poland down to the 1914 claims without Posen (which London and Paris would be quite likely to concede) and in the medium term, satellization.

The true incognitae of this scenario are what Poland would do, and even more, what Russia would do. Another Munich deal is essentially the Western Democracies giving Germany the final greenlight to jump on Russia's throat. Would Stalin seek to counter-appease Hitler as in OTL (but if Paris and London are withdrawing their protection from Poland, there is little that Russia could offer Germany that France and Russia couldn't), or would he deem war as inevitable and seek a pre-emptive strike ? And if so, in 1939 or in 1941 ?
 

Churchill

Banned
I too expect they would be no war if with the West if Hitler pressures Poland at this point.
I expect Poland may well hand over the Polish Corridor and Upper Silesia in exchange for territorial rewards Hitler had offered in the East.
The Czechs would become a semi-fascist puppet state much like Slovakia.
I expect the Axis invasion of the USSR would still happen in 1941 but some what earlier and with Czech and Polish divisions assisting.
I would expect no German Balkan campaign but an Italian, Hungarian and possibly Bulgarian invasion of Yugoslavia which would be successful and over by the start of 1941.
Greece would not be invaded I do not think and may well become pro-Axis.
 
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