Hi everyone! Please be tolerant of this, as I'm a new member and this is my first alternate timeline suggestion.
So my usual favourite POD for an actual German - Allies compromise peace in WW2 is the March 13 1943 attempt at blowing up Hitler's plane - but at this date, they've still effectively lost the forces in Tunisia, as well as having the battle of the Atlantic turn against the Reich. Hence:
The rules / background for this POD are thus: on 2nd February 1943, upon hearing of the surrender of Paulus and his forces in Stalingrad, Hitler flies into a massive rage ( as he did in OTL). Unlike in OTL, after a few minutes of frothing and ranting he pops a vein and dies of a stroke or cerebral haemorhage! From this point on, my assumption is that Goering (who was lazy, venal, and slightly anti-semitic - but also sane and rational with considerable natural powers of intelligence and smallscale tactical skill) becomes Fuhrer quickly. The next day, Abweher agents in Portugal transmit indisputable proof (how acquired is outside this discussion) to Berlin that the naval Enigma transmissions to and from the U-Boats have been cracked by the British for some time, and are frequently being read. The day after this, Fuhrer Goerhing appoints Erich von Manstein in charge of OKH, and gives him permission to conduct the war on the eastern front as he sees fit, within reason.
So my sub-POD's are: Fuhrer Goering on 2nd Feb 1943; German Navy gets proof of Allied Enigma reads on 3rd Feb 1943; and Manstein gets supreme command in the East on 4th Feb 1943.
How would this timeline run for the next few years?