Hitler Dies of Stalingrad-induced Stroke + Enigma reveal?

Hi everyone! Please be tolerant of this, as I'm a new member and this is my first alternate timeline suggestion.

So my usual favourite POD for an actual German - Allies compromise peace in WW2 is the March 13 1943 attempt at blowing up Hitler's plane - but at this date, they've still effectively lost the forces in Tunisia, as well as having the battle of the Atlantic turn against the Reich. Hence:

The rules / background for this POD are thus: on 2nd February 1943, upon hearing of the surrender of Paulus and his forces in Stalingrad, Hitler flies into a massive rage ( as he did in OTL). Unlike in OTL, after a few minutes of frothing and ranting he pops a vein and dies of a stroke or cerebral haemorhage! From this point on, my assumption is that Goering (who was lazy, venal, and slightly anti-semitic - but also sane and rational with considerable natural powers of intelligence and smallscale tactical skill) becomes Fuhrer quickly. The next day, Abweher agents in Portugal transmit indisputable proof (how acquired is outside this discussion) to Berlin that the naval Enigma transmissions to and from the U-Boats have been cracked by the British for some time, and are frequently being read. The day after this, Fuhrer Goerhing appoints Erich von Manstein in charge of OKH, and gives him permission to conduct the war on the eastern front as he sees fit, within reason.

So my sub-POD's are: Fuhrer Goering on 2nd Feb 1943; German Navy gets proof of Allied Enigma reads on 3rd Feb 1943; and Manstein gets supreme command in the East on 4th Feb 1943.

How would this timeline run for the next few years?
 
Why Berlin nuked? This is often said, but what if "SaneGoehring Reich[TM]Plus Uboats" reaches the Allied exhaustion points at the end of '43? The US still has a long way to go against Japan, and Germany is probably contorting itself into implausible position after implausible position in order to satisfy the UK.
 
Losing the Ultra data will hurt the allies a little, but by 1943 the U-boats were doomed, and US ship production had ramped up. U-boats hold on for an extra month or two, the allies build a few more escorts (in OTL they were slowing production down by the end of 43), nothing much changes there.
Similarly in the East, Germany will do better, but is still going to be going backwards, if not as fast

The more interesting divergences come when germany is starting at defeat - will Goering surrender to save Germany, rather than fighting on till the end? And will he concin the East, holding off Russia, effectively letting the western allies occupy Germany?
 
My big Q is whether Goering could use Hitler's death as an excuse to claim that the German people really didn't want this War Hitler foisted upon them and attempt to negotiate a peace while the Reich is still in a defensible position.

Otherwise by Stalingrad the tide has turned, Enigma or not. Keep in mind the Enigma codes were changed on occasion and Ultra had to reacquire Enigma a few times OTL.

Maybe ATL Goering is smart enough to keep the armies in the east to hold back the red tide and let the western allies overrun the Reich rather than try some stupid Ardennes 2.0 *Battle of the Bulge. Might save some German civilians from OTL's Soviet reprisals, or get more German scientists/secrets into western hands.
 
My big Q is whether Goering could use Hitler's death as an excuse to claim that the German people really didn't want this War Hitler foisted upon them and attempt to negotiate a peace while the Reich is still in a defensible position.

Otherwise by Stalingrad the tide has turned, Enigma or not. Keep in mind the Enigma codes were changed on occasion and Ultra had to reacquire Enigma a few times OTL.

Maybe ATL Goering is smart enough to keep the armies in the east to hold back the red tide and let the western allies overrun the Reich rather than try some stupid Ardennes 2.0 *Battle of the Bulge. Might save some German civilians from OTL's Soviet reprisals, or get more German scientists/secrets into western hands.

I think germany will still go for a summer offensive in 43. After all, they might win if they succeed, and in any case they probably expect it to put them in a better position if they DO decide to try for a peace (they wouldnt be expecting it to be as big a fail as it was).

If it does fail as badly, or if its only a very limited success, Goering might be inclined to try for a peace. he was pretty intelligent, while lazy, but if a descision has to be made, I think hed make it. However would the other hard line Nazi's let him?

If it all fails, and they have to fight till the end, I'd expect a better planned retreat in the East, and if necessary arranging things to surrender to the west - far better for germany to be occupied by the west, and have independnt buffer states like Poland between them and Russia in the future.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Stalingrad probably had the last even remotely plausible chance of an Axis victory pass away, but I think it is a good question if removing Hitler and his odd principles of conducting war would also make it impossible for the allies to achieve a decisive victory.

If the East Front is conducted more after Manstein's flexible defense doctrines (in contrast to Hitler's "never give an inch") the battles of 1943 and 1944 might easily end up with a Soviet blood letting making it practically impossible for the Soviets to go much further than the pre-war border. The Germans will still be pushed back (perhaps faster), but if they by early/mid 44 instead of a collapsed Armygroup Center can have an intact east front I suspect the Soviets could be tempted to an armistice. Especially if results from the "second front" draws out. Like if the absense of Hitler means the Panzer Divisions in Normandy counter attacking the bridgehead right away and turn it into a 2nd Dieppe.

If nukes next fall on Germany in 2nd half of 45 I doubt it will mean anything else but the Germans getting the bomb earlier + ICBMs! By OTL 1945 several German cities already had suffered casualties comparable to or worse than a nuclear attack without the Germans ever considering quitting for that reason. I don't see why the few nukes available initially should change that, certainly not when Germany still hasn't lost access to the most essential strategic materials.

BTW it is interesting to consider what a deliberate German misinformation project could have lead to in case of them knowing about Enigma being cracked? Of course not for ever, but perhaps enough to lure the allies into some serious traps?

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Well according to Galland, Goring had the technical knowledge of a house plant... one would expect that perhaps Speer could talk him out of the more wasteful super weapon projects (v-3 maus etc) Victory is out of the question after Stalingrad even for Manstein. The best the Germans could do would be a long term flexible defense that took advantage of their skill in armored maneuver warfare followed by an eventual retirement to the 1941 border which would have been heavily fortified in the meantime (Rommel's idea)

Italy can be held as a stalemate given the terrain with these tactics and Normandy can be bottled up and contained (ie no falaise disaster)... even if the allies break out the germans, if organized, can fall back to each river line and give the allies a bloody nose... the seine and the somme are strong natural positions.

Inflict enough death and they might decide on something of a white peace. Britain was out of infantry replacements in 1944 and Stalin hit the end of his human bank account by spring 1945... somewhat better german performance in 1943 could bring these problems forward earlier
 
Armoured maneuver warfare only works when the enemy doesn't have air superiority, or said superiority is nullified by terrain or weather. Neither of which is happening in the summer of 44. Once the allies were ashore in France they couldn't be stopped. Not enough tanks or planes, or germans to put in them.
 
Armoured maneuver warfare only works when the enemy doesn't have air superiority, or said superiority is nullified by terrain or weather. Neither of which is happening in the summer of 44. Once the allies were ashore in France they couldn't be stopped. Not enough tanks or planes, or germans to put in them.

The Germans don't have to stop them completely... they have to fight a clever step by step defense. Hitler sent the entire panzer force into a death trap at Mortain (battle of falaise)... assuming they skip that fiasco, once Cobra breaks out they could use mobile delaying tactics with their more intact armored divisions and retreat to each river line. each river line would have to be crossed by a major operation that would be manpower and munitions intensive especially for the British who had little manpower to spare... if Goring presses the right buttons they might not want to fight anymore if they can make it particularly bloody and offers generous peace terms
 
...that it isn't very significant in an ATL if it already happened in OTL.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

Yes it is, I was stating that Berlin would be nuked regardless of how bad the war was going for the allies and more would be dropped until the Axis waved the white flag.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Yes it is, I was stating that Berlin would be nuked regardless of how bad the war was going for the allies and more would be dropped until the Axis waved the white flag.

Nuking Germany is not likely to bring about German surrender. In OTL by 1944 Germany already was taking damage from conventional bombing simlar or worse than what the few nukes available in the first years would have been able to, and that didn't bring by German surrender. Allied armies first cutting off Germany from strategic supplies and next invading Germany itself did. If the Soviets have agreed to an armistice/separate peace the W.allies have little chance to defeat the Wehrmacht in the field.

When Japan surrendered in august 1945 she was in a far worse state, literally starving and with no practical means with which to continue the war.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
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