Hitler dies in May 1940, who succeeds?

Let's say Hitler meets with a sudden end in May 1940 in the midst of the Battle of France - maybe an extremely lucky British bomber puts one on his head or, more likely, from an accident or a medical issue, but not the work of any internal forces. Who would succeed him? I believe this is before Goering was officially appointed to that position?
 
Let's say Hitler meets with a sudden end in May 1940 in the midst of the Battle of France - maybe an extremely lucky British bomber puts one on his head or, more likely, from an accident or a medical issue, but not the work of any internal forces. Who would succeed him? I believe this is before Goering was officially appointed to that position?

Hitler designated Goering as his official successor in his speech to the Reichstag announcing the beginning of the war (1 September 1939).
 
I would think it would be Heinrich because he was very similar to Hitler and he commanded the Schutzstaffel.

That meant something in 1944 not in 1940. Goering is a service chief and senior in the party. You need to twist things for him not to come into power.

Michael
 
It's Goering's to lose as he would be the front-runner, and he is still enormously popular with most Germans due to his almost-sincere efforts to get a peace treaty in place with the West prior to Munich. He has the Air Force behind him. Buuuuuuuuuut, there are problems.

First and foremost, the Army no longer trusted him. Initially, Goering was a bridge between the reactionary elements in the Army and the lunatic fringe fascists in Brown Shirts. More than a few monocled generals who shook their heads at the horseshit spewing from the mouths of Nazi Party speakers could at least reconcile themselves to the fact that their sort of man Goering was there to steady the ship and make sure those madmen would not do any real harm. That illusion lasted a remarkable long time, but after the fat bastard presided over the kangaroo honor court during the infamous Blomberg–Fritsch affair, more than a few monocles fell out of shocked faces. Goering was no longer seen as "their man" by some Army elements. However, in the aftermath of the most successful military campaign in the history of 20th century Germany - the Fall of France - the Army love affair with the Nazi Party would have been at an all time high, so they could overlook it, but that does not mean they would automatically support Goering. They could "shop" around for a different candidate, if one presented himself. Or could play it cool. Of paramount importance to the Army would have been to secure in the public's eye their role as the saviors of the nations and the victorious ones in the campaign. They would want assurances no one would speak of the role anyone else played in the Fall of France. No hat tipping to SS or anything of the sort. This was to be the Army's finest hour. Goering would need to ensure the limelight was not shared to get their buy-in, but as I said, it would be far from absolute.

There is also the problem of The Oath. I do not for one moment believe The Oath binding German army soldiers and officers to Hitler personally was as absolute or psychologically disabling as some of the German army apologists seem to insinuate, but even accepting that premise, with Hitler dead, there is no absolute loyalty to Goering provisioned anywhere on paper. Would Goering demand a new oath? Could he demand a new oath from a victorious army (or about to be victorious army) flexing its muscle? It'd be a problem. And it would make Goering feel a bit nervous.

Money. Recent (?) research indicates that quite a few German military leaders were paid off with bribes from the German government once Nazi Party seized power. They were masked, but not well, as payments for restitution of property lost during the Great War or as upkeep of estates from a grateful nation or something or other. It was quite pervasive. The Aufwandsentschädigungen ("compensation for expenses") was also tax-exempt, which in an Empire with a shockingly high tax on income over a certain amount meant generals and admirals were paid enormous sums. This money would keep folks in-line, so long as the money kept flowing. The man bestowing these sums was Hans Lammers a non-entity who was effectively underwriting the domestic policy of the whole of the Empire by controlling the purse strings. It was Hans who first started the habit of signing off all civil decrees in the German state with a Nazi Party salutation and soon all others followed suit. But to whom would Hans owe loyalty? In '43, Hans and Goering had issues. In '45, Bormann had used Goering's premature declaration of being the man in power with Hitler cut off in Berlin to get Goering and Lammers arrested. What of '40? I am not sure. But there could be a race there.

That brings us to the gray little shit-weasel himself: Bormann. In '40, Hess is yet to make That Flight, so it is Hess that is the deputy leader of the Party, but Bormann is on his staff. And given Hess and his meandering, it would be Bormann who would be doing the goading for Hess to do this or that while Hess sheds tears, rends his garments and laments the loss of Hitler. Which way would Bormann move Hess and with him the power of the Party chancellery? We are talking the lower intestine of a government and its political blood flow here. Without Hess (read: Bormann) onboard, what would Goering have as his machinery of power?

And that brings us to the next point - the Party itself. Nazi Germany was a mess. I do not mean this just as a value judgement, though that is true as well, I mean it in every way possible regarding its governmental structures, even when compared to other totalitarian states. Hitler's Germany was a chaotic mess of overlapping bureaucracies and that's exactly how he wanted it. First, it allowed him to play off subordinates against each other. Second, it fit nicely into his warped philosophy of The-Leadership-Principle. All power derived from the Leader, the Leader then appointed Lesser Leaders to carry out his will. The Lesser Leaders were then given broad powers to carry out the will of the Leader. If one Lesser Leader's responsibility overlapped with that of another Lesser Leader, the Lesser Leader who showed more initiative and was more decisive received favor from the Leader and saw his power expand, the loser would have his power reduced, though not necessarily lose his position (as he would in Stalinist Russia or China). Nazi Germany's ideology was, in my view, less about Fascism and more about Hitlerism, he who is closest to Hitler wins. Exit Hitler. Enter Goering. What would be the basis for his authority?

To be sure, Goering's Nazi credentials were impeccable. He was an Old Fighter from the Days of Struggle, he was actually shot during the Putsch in Munich, and he was once the highest ranking Brown Shirt, but what did any of that mean in 1940? The power structures of the Party was by then littered by March Violets, men who had joined the Party when it was safe do so after the Seizure of Power. Oh to be sure the Golden Party Badge of Old Fighters was a mark of honor and denoted prestige, but prestige derived from the proximity the Badge implied to Hitler. The Badge meant its wearer could call upon the help of him in whose name he fought and by whose side he stood during the Days of Struggle. All power came from Hitler. And now he was gone. And in his place stood The Leader's designated successor, who could legitimately claim the title, but it wasn't exactly the same. Stalin pulled it off because he was Stalin and because while Bolshevism was by and large Leninism, it was a Leninist interpretation of Marxism. Soviet banners carried Marx, Engels and Lenin (and then Stalin). Upon whose historical fascist theory could Goering fall on and have the people not laugh in their sleeve? Mussolini? Hitler was Lennon-McCartney and Harrison. That made everyone else a Ringo.

And for Ringo to succeed, he would need propaganda. Unfortunately for the fat bastard, Dr. Goebbels and he did not have the warmest of relations, but luckily for Goering, the good doctor did not have a monopoly on propaganda in Nazi Germany. This is often overlooked, but while Goebbels controlled the radio, but he did not have full control of the press - which is a problem for the doctor because most people still got their news from the newspapers (kids, please ask your grandparents what are "newspapers"). The papers were controlled, in a very confusing and Nazi like fashion, by the Press Chief of the Nazi Party Otto Dietrich and President of the Reich Media Chamber and Reich Press Leader Max Amann. Both disliked Goebbels. Could Goering leverage either man against Goebbels or perhaps promise the crippled runt a monopoly if he backs his power-grab? Maybe? But both Deitrich and Amann had a sugar daddy - Himmler. And now we face yet another creature in this affair.

To be sure 1940 Himmler is not as powerful as 1942 Himmler. The SS does not as yet control huge swathes of land out in the East and the Waffen-SS is a mere shadow of what they would become. But Himmler has Heydrich and Gestapo. Except, Gestapo was created by the fat bastard himself, and although he gave it up to Himmler and his "Bavarian" faction in the Party, Goering thought of himself as a Bavarian, all reality to the contrary and still had close ties to men in Himmler's organization. Himmler and Goering had a strange relationship, but no more strange than the rest of the fascist scum climbing greasy poles and planting evidence against fellow"Party colleagues." Himmler can help Goering or hurt him, but he cannot topple him on his own. Not without another candidate appearing on the horizon. The trouble is whatever helps Himmler hurts the Army and vice-versa. And Goering would have to dance rather gingerly here if he wants SS and Army support at the same time.

Goering would probably still be the designated successor, but his power would be a fraction of Hitler's and there would be a lot of jockeying for positions and the search for another candidate. Of course, I cannot think of another good candidate off the top of my head right now, and it would be a hard role to fill. One would need to be:
  1. Well-known (you cannot drag a behind the scenes nobody and expect people to follow suit),
  2. Already popular with the German people (propaganda can be effective, but there are limits),
  3. Be supported by the Nazi Party rank and file (they operate a lot of levers of machinery of power, and while they can be made to fall into line, there are limits here as well. It has to be someone who is a known commodity to the Party faithful),
  4. Supported by the armed forces (Air Force is Goering's, but Army and Navy could be up for grabs),
  5. Be able to play well with others (or put another way, be more collegial than Goering or at least fake it).
That is a tall order. So I think Goering takes the brass ring in the end.
 
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