Hitler dies in late 1933 or early 1934: What happens next?

What if Adolf Hitler died in late 1933 or early 1934 (let's say that his death is a random heart attack or something along those line)? What happens next in not exactly-Nazi Germany? What does a senile and dying President Hindenburg (or the people in his inner circle) do? Declare von Papen or some "acceptable" (to the elites) Nazi like Goering to be Chancellor? What about Ernst Roem? What actions does he take? Does he launch his "Second Revolution" to establish a "National Socialist" state which lives up to the name?
 
So, what do you think happens in Germany if Hitler died after the Enabling Act was passed but prior to the Night of the Long Knives, folks?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Hmm, at the first moment the Vice-Chancellor would step in by his function : v.Papen.

However, it would be dead clear to everybody, that the NSDAP and its ministers and 'big-heads' can't be ignored ... and that they will NOT subordinate to someone like Papen.
Night of the Long Knives hasn#t happened yet ... therefore all of the political puppeteers and politician are around : v.Schleicher, Strasser (both of them), Röhm, Treviranus, ...

Might it be possible that Gregor Strasser makes a reappearance ? ... perhaps abit 'pushed' by Schleicher ? I remember having read once, that Hindenburg once met Gregor Strasser and was ... not without sympathy. Anyway, given rank and performance during the war he would be much more acceptable to Hindenburg as Hitler has been.

Röhm trying his second revolution ? Something the Reichswehr would be opposed to already, probably only waiting for Röhm doing the "wrong step" to go over him with Hindenburgs approval. ... what beside some street fights, as the Reichswehr might well remember from the 'revolutionary' period, would only show the militarily impotence of the SA.

However. At that point of time Göring was a vigorous man, good and by the Nazi followers very well received orator at the heights of his abilities, also relativly well received by the 'traditional' elites. And with these contacts he was far ahead of every other nazi-bighead at that time in being heared abd received by these elites. ... Using this contacts I could well see him as the new chancellor.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
At the beginning of his reign, let's say up to remilitarisation of the Rheinland, Hitler could in terms of foreign policy, as he conducted it, be seen more as a dove than a hawk.
  • He pushed for a fast and in the perception of the foreign office disadvantageous treaty with the Vatican ("Reichskonkordat"), the foreign office being sidelined by "special emissaries" of Hitler (von Papen and Ludwig Kaas), for domestic reasons (promise to the Centre party) and cracking the looming diplomatic isolation.
  • After France all but formally left the disarmament conferece in stating, that France would look for its security by itself (march or beginning April 1933 IIRC), the foreign office (von Neurath and his lot) pressed for Germany leaving the LoN immediatly also. Instead ... Hitler made his first mayor "peace speaches" in the Reichstag in May - and stayed in the LoN as well as the disarmament conference. (Which he "dared" to leave only after he secured some backing from Mussolini [Mussolini-pact or Four-Power Pact of July this year].)
  • Again against the thoughts and "wishes" of the Neurath foreign office and sidelining it he accomplished the German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact of January 1934
  • The calling off of the ToV regarding military, the "Rearmament" in March 1935 was done only after the last 1 1/2 years of talks though no "formal" negotiations with Britain, in which he got the impression, that Britain would accept a though limited rearmament (something ceeded already in principle to the Schleicher-goverment in late 1932).
Only after the remilitarisation of the Rheinland, also already "demanded" by the militaries and further "conservative" circles in summer/autumn 1934, during whichs execution Hitler almost pissed his pants in panic he became the much more daring and risk-taking politician as he's so often depicted.
Only then he finally got the impression, that France and esp. Britain were weak and teethless, not having the balls to counter further "strong" actions. Only then he really started to plan for war (" ... In four years the german economy has to be ready for war and the army ready for action. ..." 1936, the Four-Years-Plan)
 
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Deleted member 1487

Likely a major power struggle, because there is no clear successor and Goering, the eventual guy, wasn't nearly as powerful in 1934 yet as he would become, plus lacks the necessary power base. Hess might well be kept, if the Nazis keep power, as a figure head due to his position as Deputy Führer and relative popularity with the public. I think it is very likely the army, not wanting a major, protracted power struggle, might either back Goering, an ex-officer, or dump them altogether. It's pretty tough to say actually how things go down, much depends on how and when exactly Hitler dies, plus then how everyone maneuvers relative to each other to make things happen.
The SA is still a major factor, but the existing establishment, namely the military, would not work with them and probably give the Nazi party functionaries an ultimatum in that regard. Probably this is a recipe for a civil war.
 
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What would the result of such a power struggle be? The army and the conservative elites winning out or Rohm and the SA carrying out their "Second Revolution"?
 

Deleted member 1487

Probably army/police winning, but a heavily damaged Germany, materially, politically, and socially.
 
Probably army/police winning, but a heavily damaged Germany, materially, politically, and socially.
What would a Germany ruled by a clique of conservative elites after said power struggle look like? Who becomes President after Hindenburg dies mid-power struggle or shortly afterwards?
 

Deleted member 1487

What would a Germany ruled by a clique of conservative elites after said power struggle look like? Who becomes President after Hindenburg dies mid-power struggle or shortly afterwards?
Not sure it matters if there is foreign intervention. There might well not be a conservative clique, rather a foreign installed government. I wonder if Adenauer would get an early go at power, apparently the French tried to get him to head a break off Rheinland state in the 1920s.
 
Not sure it matters if there is foreign intervention. There might well not be a conservative clique, rather a foreign installed government. I wonder if Adenauer would get an early go at power, apparently the French tried to get him to head a break off Rheinland state in the 1920s.
Let's assume that the foreign powers who would lead such an intervention have their own problems as well (read: are busy trying to mitigate the effects of the Great Depression) for this scenario.
 

Deleted member 1487

Let's assume that the foreign powers who would lead such an intervention have their own problems as well (read: are busy trying to mitigate the effects of the Great Depression) for this scenario.
They won't be if Germany is in civil war. They will intervene in some way because they cannot afford to have a Germany run by the army. Plus nothing like your biggest neighbor that invaded you less than 20 years prior falling into violence, with either side taking over being bad for your future being a motivator to unite the nation behind intervention.
 
They won't be if Germany is in civil war. They will intervene in some way because they cannot afford to have a Germany run by the army. Plus nothing like your biggest neighbor that invaded you less than 20 years prior falling into violence, with either side taking over being bad for your future being a motivator to unite the nation behind intervention.
What about if Germany doesn't fall into a state of civil war, then?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Not sure it matters if there is foreign intervention. There might well not be a conservative clique, rather a foreign installed government. I wonder if Adenauer would get an early go at power, apparently the French tried to get him to head a break off Rheinland state in the 1920s.
They won't be if Germany is in civil war. They will intervene in some way because they cannot afford to have a Germany run by the army. Plus nothing like your biggest neighbor that invaded you less than 20 years prior falling into violence, with either side taking over being bad for your future being a motivator to unite the nation behind intervention.
Foreign power intervention into a german ... kind of civil war ?

How ?

IIRC the "Entente" powers aka France and Britain at that time were quite across each other, remembering their controversial positions regarding german reparations, the rearmament, dealing with interallied war debts etc..
At the turn of 1933/1934, early 1934 France didn't have the means to inflience much in Germany, even less than in the early 20ies and definitly not enough to get Adenauer at the helm of his dreamed of independant Rheinland Republic he eventually got after WW 2 (though he had to accept the bavarians and lower saxons ... and hessians in also).

IMO the fighting in Germany following a ... sudden death of Hitler would be rather short though likely bloody. The more "sudden" Hitlers death (aka caused or assumed to be caused by ... someone) the bloodier.
However, as soon as public fighting might start, Hindenburg would call a state of emergency, handing over control to Blomberg for sqashinf rioats (same as Ebert did in 1923 with von Seeckt). If there are "only" some "incidents" in SA-homes or in some workers-quarters in mayor towns and cities, these would most likely handeld "only" by the riot police.
After 4 weeks at last everything would have been settled whateverway. Not enough time for any foreign power to effectivly intervene.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Foreign power intervention into a german ... kind of civil war ?

How ?

IIRC the "Entente" powers aka France and Britain at that time were quite across each other, remembering their controversial positions regarding german reparations, the rearmament, dealing with interallied war debts etc..
At the turn of 1933/1934, early 1934 France didn't have the means to inflience much in Germany, even less than in the early 20ies and definitly not enough to get Adenauer at the helm of his dreamed of independant Rheinland Republic he eventually got after WW 2 (though he had to accept the bavarians and lower saxons ... and hessians in also).
In 1934 France has its own issues, but Britain is not pro-Germany yet. The Poles and French were willing to invade and overthrow a Schleicher government or at least said they were, while a German civil war would shut down the economy, so an invasion would actually be restoring a functional political system and economy, which is what Britain cares about. Shutting down a damaging civil war that ends with Prussian military types in charge actually helps stabilize Europe, which most non-Germans would agree is great. The French+Poles and whomever else could very well influence the results of a civil war up to and including occupying Berlin.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
In 1934 France has its own issues, but Britain is not pro-Germany yet. The Poles and French were willing to invade ...
...
The French+Poles and whomever else could very well influence the results of a civil war up to and including occupying Berlin.
What would IMO lead almost immediatly to an end of inner-german fighting and foghting against the Poles, French or even both.

This is not 1923. Most possible innergerman "supporters" for an intervention, communists, leftists in general, have either left Germany already or sitting in jail.
The german "infighting" is between rights and far rigts and Germany isn't rid of a functioning goverment. There IS v.Papen as the rightfull Vice-Chancellor and Blomberg as the rightfull commander of the Reichswehr, put in charge of the executive by the rightfull Reichspresident.
Any call for a "second revolution" by i.e. Röhm or whatever remnants of the Otto-Strasserist faction there might be would NOT result in some kind of strike/general strike as in the 20ies, which effectivly shut down general buisness and public life.

And as said above (your post crossed with my edit) this infighting/civil war would imo be rather short. ... to short for an effective foreign intervention.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
How would SPD and Centre party react to a Prussoid authoritarian military government?
Centre would go with ... the Reichspresident and whatever conservative/authoritarian goverment, esp. when being part of it (the "workers"-wing of the centre-party was already well silenced during the Brüning-era).

SPD would go ... to Prague (SOPADE), if they weren't already there ... or in prison.
 
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