Agreed. Germany will be in a position of strength. Avoiding invading Russia and drawing down other fronts of the war will give Germany a year of calm that allows them to rest their troops build up their army and rebuild their ammo supplies and produce more equipment. Depending on who takes over power could mean the Third Reich could last ten more years than it did.IMO, Barbarossa is called off, or delayed. In March 1941 the mobilization of troops, tanks, artillery to the eastern front has not scaled up significantly. However, if Germany doesn't invade Russia, we must still expect Stalin to attack Germany in the coming years.
Instead we'll see Germany trying to win and/or close down its existing fighting. For example, Rommel's first offensive in North Africa begin March 23, 1941. If there is a power vacuum in Berlin, we may not even see Rommel or the Afrika Corp being sent to save the Italians. Nor may we see the German invasion of Greece in April 1941.
As for the Final Solution, which ramped up significantly after Barbarossa, we'll need to see who takes over.
Certainly in March 1941 Germany can negotiate from a position of strength.
![]()
Pretty much this, though I don't know if Stalin would be game for that unless attacked first. He made sure that Axis entry wouldn't require him to join the ongoing war against Britain, same with Japan, so likely he stays out, but continues to support Germany materially. Goering was not interested in fighting the USSR before Britain was defeated and probably not ever really with Hitler out of the picture. Besides by 1942 the opportunity to attack successfully is basically over and it would make no sense attacking a formal ally. Likely Britain drops out of the war in 1941 if the USSR joins the Axis, as they know the Germans and Soviets aren't going to war in a while and US entry brings in Japan and the USSR into the war (as far as they know about internal Axis politics). Knowing that the Axis now dominates Eurasia Britain cannot win the war and US entry only escalates things beyond the point of it making sense to continue the war. So continuing is just racking up the cost and debt.If Göring winds up in charge he probably doesn't invade Russia. If Germany lets Stalin join the Axis and can get him to attack the British in the Middle East via Iran that would probably be their most useful contribution.
If Göring winds up in charge he probably doesn't invade Russia. If Germany lets Stalin join the Axis and can get him to attack the British in the Middle East via Iran that would probably be their most useful contribution.
Was there any positive conjecture that Stalin was gearing up the Soviet Armed Forces for a conflict against Nazi Germany either in 1942 or 1943.
A Soviet Army reorganizing in 1941 and 1942 would probably have been noticed and watched by the German Intel and those anti-soviet partisans reporting to folks in the West of their mobilizations for their Soviet Armies near Germany and her Axis Allies...
The Soviets joining the Axis does make the Pacific Theater interesting. What happens after Pearl Harbor? Does Stalin declare war on the U.S. since they are allies with Japan?Pretty much this, though I don't know if Stalin would be game for that unless attacked first. He made sure that Axis entry wouldn't require him to join the ongoing war against Britain, same with Japan, so likely he stays out, but continues to support Germany materially. Goering was not interested in fighting the USSR before Britain was defeated and probably not ever really with Hitler out of the picture. Besides by 1942 the opportunity to attack successfully is basically over and it would make no sense attacking a formal ally. Likely Britain drops out of the war in 1941 if the USSR joins the Axis, as they know the Germans and Soviets aren't going to war in a while and US entry brings in Japan and the USSR into the war (as far as they know about internal Axis politics). Knowing that the Axis now dominates Eurasia Britain cannot win the war and US entry only escalates things beyond the point of it making sense to continue the war. So continuing is just racking up the cost and debt.
So WW2 ends by the end of 1941 and the Axis pact keeps war from happening for at least 10 years (the duration of it) and likely continues if both sides opt to renew it to prevent war from happening after 1951 by which time nukes and expanded NBC weapons are on the table.