Hitler clearly losing by May 1940- does FDR run for 3rd term

Suppose the Western allies were a bit better prepared and had lots more luck and the Nazis were clearly losing by the end of May 1940.

Does FDR still run?

If not who runs?
 
He would win, assuming he somehow won re-nomination. That, or someone like Cordell Hull gets the nomination and beats Willkie.
 
The Soviet Union is waiting in the aisles to pick on the losers while Imperial Japan is likewise waiting on events to improve their military and economic situation...
 
Running for a third term despite his failing health suggests to me that he would have done so with or without the war.
 
Assume a serious defeat, maybe pressure on Hitler to go by military, OR even a successful offensive September 1939

In this case the European political mess & economy will sort out a lot faster with swifter benefit to the US. The war badly disrupted US trade with Europe. Traditionally about two thirds or better of US exports went to Europe. While French & Brit arms orders brought a large near term cash infusion that would not have entirely alleviated longer term export losses, nor replaced a stable long term capitol market for the US banks. To get around those & related problems the US leaders needed to work closely with the Allied governments to ensure a stable long term economic relationship. Justified or not Roosevelt felt the Republicans were too susceptible to isolationist pressures. He feared a repeat of 1919 with bad treaties, a unstable economic structure, more tariffs, & other things not in the best interest of the US.
 
I see Roosevelt following the two term tradition if there was peace in the world. The question of who would have gotten the nomination is an interesting one. I see the major candidates as Cordell Hull, James Farley, and Joe Kennedy. I wonder if Willkie emerges in a world without the specter of a coming war.
 
In OTL the thing that drew the USA to seriously pressure Japan was the invasion of French indo China. I do not think that would have happened if France had not lost the War in 1940
 
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