In the July 1944- Is there really any time to benefit from this?
"Could be you just get some one more competent taking over."
Don't all the minor axis allies defect sooner seeing Hitler dead?
Are the Germans equally willing as in OTL to occupy their defecting allies (like Hungary) and crush local uprisers in places like Slovakia and Warsaw, or to they withdraw to the west of such rebels and allies that are trying to kick them out?
As for the March 1943 -
Can events in Germany be seen in Italy as a signal to overthrow Mussolini? Sure, Rome hasn't been bombed and Sicily hasn't been taken but things look awful for the Axis in Tunis and worse in Stalingrad, both places in which alot of Italians are being lost.
Even if not, could Mussolini become interested in getting out of the war. Regardless of what you think of the Duce or Fuhrer's competence or incompetence, isn't the most likely outcome in the event either or both are removed is making German-Italian cooperation worse, with each thinking about side deals?