History of Cuba in the event of a Belgian purchase

[Hvalrossen]

Inspired by this David T's thread, https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/belgian-cuba.314282/

I wonder how Cuba would look like if Belgium had bought it?

• Would the pattern of migration be different from OTL? Immigration to Cuba from Belgium is likely to be much larger than in OTL. Spanish migration however might be lower than in OTL, perhaps dramatically so. Belgium used to have a significantly larger population than Cuba, so it should be able for Belgian migrants to make a large impact. Belgian emigration OTL went mostly to France, USA, Canada and Brazil, though the Belgian diaspora appears to be relativly small. Might the Cuban population be significantly lower than in OTL due to lower amounts of immigrants?
• How significant would the Belgian impact on Cuban culture, language and litterature be, and vice versa? I imagine that like Belgium proper, Belgian Cuba is going to be heavily French influenced, even as French speakers are minority just as they were in Belgium proper. Perhaps French becomes the language of learning at Cuban institutions of higer education, aswell as governance. Cuba is likely to feature prominently in Belgian litterature and newspapers.
• How might the ideological landscape of Cuba differ from OTL?
• When would Cuban independance be likely? Ignoring butterflies, Cuba could potentially gain independance due to US intervention in the event of a Cuban war for independance. Alternativly the disruption caused by WW1 and the German occupation fo Belgium could weaken the Belgian hold over Cuba. Resulting from this might be Cuban independance or the lead up to Cuban independance. Alternativly Cuba might be content with it's union with Belgium and never demand independance. Cuban independance could also be secured and won thru a plebiscite. Would Cuban independacne be a fact from the very start or early compared to OTL?
• What might the Cuban economy look like in the event of Belgian Cuba? What will be the ties between the Cuban and Belgian economies?

Another Question is could Belgium really purchase Cuba?

• Assuming the negotiations are finished, would the news of the deal cause a unrest in Spain and in effect prevent it?
• Will Cubans use the handover agreement from Spain to Belgium as a chance for complete independance?
• Would the news of the deal cause other countries besides Belgium and Spain to press for it's abandonment? Someone is bound to mention the Monroe Doctrine. The Netherlands could potentially cause some trouble.

Demographics of Belgium - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Demographics of Cuba - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Mechadogzilla]

Reading through the thread, I agree with the posters there it’d be difficult for Belgium to hold the territory. Does she have much of an organized army or navy to support holding Cuba? Cuba revolted multiple times OTL throughout the 19th century, these would only be worse ITTL. Without outside support it’s dubious Belgium could hold it.

What is the chance the Americans support this arrangement anyways? If the UK gives their blessing the US can’t do anything about it without a navy, but if the UK gives their blessing they’re damaging their relationship with the US.

OTL Franklin Pierce tried to purchase Cuba. I imagine him or a different expansionist president would attempt to do the same ITTL, and would likely succeed because Belgium would struggle to hold the territory and likely just want to get rid of it.

 

[Nephi]

The good thing about Cuba vs the Congo even though the US was racist as hell, if he tried something like that there they'd still snatch it from him.

I can just imagine Leopold the monster that he was however chopping off hands in coffee fields instead of rubber plantations.

His body count probably wouldn't have ended up as high because of well US intervention.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Cuba gets bought by Belgium, it goes into revolt really quickly, maybe the French try to help them out there and get kicked out under the Monroe Doctrine, U.S. establishes a protectorate over Cuba like sixty years earlier. Before the Civil War...

Heck, even before the U.S.-Mexican War.

Really really wondering how American development is altered because of this. Not even just the free-slave state balance, but the very fact that the U.S. is involved with foreign nations in that time period. How would an earlier Cuban intervention against the Belgians/French affect its relations with Mexico, for instance?

 

[Hvalrossen]

Reading through the thread, I agree with the posters there it’d be difficult for Belgium to hold the territory. Does she have much of an organized army or navy to support holding Cuba? Cuba revolted multiple times OTL throughout the 19th century, these would only be worse ITTL. Without outside support it’s dubious Belgium could hold it.

What is the chance the Americans support this arrangement anyways? If the UK gives their blessing the US can’t do anything about it without a navy, but if the UK gives their blessing they’re damaging their relationship with the US.

OTL Franklin Pierce tried to purchase Cuba. I imagine him or a different expansionist president would attempt to do the same ITTL, and would likely succeed because Belgium would struggle to hold the territory and likely just want to get rid of it.

USA while not been happy about Belgian Cuba is not likely to be as outraged had another European country been Cuba's new overlord. Say had Prussia, France or UK bought Cuba they would probably me more dissapointed, allthough it would be harder to pressure any of these countries. Is the US likely to interfere directly in Belgian Cuba? I doubt it, more likely is that they would support Cuban nationalists. US support for Cuban nationalists might not be extensive, and might fail even if their support is extensive. Eventually US might accept Belgian rule over Cuba as the status quo, atleast periodically. Should the US intervene as they did OTL, then Belgium is likely to have to accept American terms.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Cuba gets bought by Belgium, it goes into revolt really quickly, maybe the French try to help them out there and get kicked out under the Monroe Doctrine, U.S. establishes a protectorate over Cuba like sixty years earlier. Before the Civil War...

Heck, even before the U.S.-Mexican War.

Really really wondering how American development is altered because of this. Not even just the free-slave state balance, but the very fact that the U.S. is involved with foreign nations in that time period. How would an earlier Cuban intervention against the Belgians/French affect its relations with Mexico, for instance?

Would the US intervene in the 1830s?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I think they might try to prevent the French from landing, but otoh the Brits and the French were able to do that in Mexico a bunch over debts so maybe not.

 

[funnyhat]

I'm not sure if Spanish migration would be that different than OTL. Cuban culture will not drastically change, especially since the Belgian régime would have to accommodate itself to the population to avoid alienating it.

You might see basically the reverse of Louisiana in the previous century, when a Spanish administration ruled an essentially francophone colony.

 

[Fernan3451]

Cuba gets bought by Belgium, it goes into revolt really quickly, maybe the French try to help them out there and get kicked out under the Monroe Doctrine, U.S. establishes a protectorate over Cuba like sixty years earlier. Before the Civil War...

Why would a rebellion in Cuba have an objective to establish a protectorate exactly? They would ask for protection only after independence is achieved (although it is likely to fail though).

Edit: also, didn't Belgium establish a failed concession in Guatemala and didn't the US did nothing to prevent it?

 

[M79]

Source material:

Belgium and the Prospective Sale of Cuba in 1837 | Hispanic American Historical Review | Duke University Press

read.dukeupress.edu

 

[Hvalrossen]

Why would a rebellion in Cuba have an objective to establish a protectorate exactly? They would ask for protection only after independence is achieved (although it is likely to fail though).

Edit: also, didn't Belgium establish a failed concession in Guatemala and didn't the US did nothing to prevent it?

Yes Belgium had a small colony in Guatamala. This colony existed as company, under Guatamalan law. Allthough the colony was not Belgian in the political sense.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_colonial_empire#Santo_Tomás,_Guatemala_(1843–54)

I'm not sure if Spanish migration would be that different than OTL. Cuban culture will not drastically change, especially since the Belgian régime would have to accommodate itself to the population to avoid alienating it.

You might see basically the reverse of Louisiana in the previous century, when a Spanish administration ruled an essentially francophone colony.

Spanish migration could be more directed towards e.g Argentina than in OTL? Besides it is possible to imagine Cuba recieving upwards of a million Belgian migrants. Such a large number, aswell significant proportion of the total population is bound to influence Cuban cultrue.

I think they might try to prevent the French from landing, but otoh the Brits and the French were able to do that in Mexico a bunch over debts so maybe not.

Good point!

Any US intervention depends on domestic US factors combined with a casus belli. Which is what happened OTL with the Spanish-American war.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Why would a rebellion in Cuba have an objective to establish a protectorate exactly? They would ask for protection only after independence is achieved (although it is likely to fail though).

I think because of Cuba's proximity and the interest in it by both Southern states and Manifest Destiny types in general would probably lead to more than just supporting the rebellion.

Edit: also, didn't Belgium establish a failed concession in Guatemala and didn't the US did nothing to prevent it?

Cuba's way closer to the U.S.'s doorstep. And while Belgium buying the island is one thing, American interests if not the government proper would probably take steps to prevent them from retaking control if the population revolted against it.

 

[Hvalrossen]

I think because of Cuba's proximity and the interest in it by both Southern states and Manifest Destiny types in general would probably lead to more than just supporting the rebellion.

Perhaps some could see Cuba's handover from Spain to Belgium as proof that Cuba could become part of another country, namely the United States.

Cuba's way closer to the U.S.'s doorstep. And while Belgium buying the island is one thing, American interests if not the government proper would probably take steps to prevent them from retaking control if the population revolted against it.

Should the rebellion be quickly snuffed out by Belgian Cuban authorities or Belgium proper, then what could have become a American intervention is likely to be stopped before it has even begun. Even if a war lasts for years, the US might not decisively intervene.

Also be should not see American intervention as a prerequisite for Cuban independance form Belgium. The US might simply take over Belgium's role as Cuba's overlord. Additionally Cuban nationalists could achive independance on their own.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

Belgian Cuba? That's a new one for me.

 

[JohnBull]

The good thing about Cuba vs the Congo even though the US was racist as hell, if he tried something like that there they'd still snatch it from him.

I can just imagine Leopold the monster that he was however chopping off hands in coffee fields instead of rubber plantations.

His body count probably wouldn't have ended up as high because of well US intervention.

Things that happened in Congo would hardly be tried or even imagined in Cuba. It happened there because the actors were in the middle of jungle, in the frontier, far from the balances and checks of "civilization". When they were caught, the whole enterprise fell apart.

Cuba was/is an European offshoot and an old, well established society. Belgian eventual violence against slaves would be similar to the Cuban/Spanish/American slave owner in the period. It wouldn't stand out.

There's nothing specifically Belgian in what happened in Congo. Other European (or even Arab or African rulers) could have perpetrated the same crimes.

 

[M79]

It's very unlikely for Cuba to go Belgian so long as our proposed time of acquisition is in the 1830s. The Netherlands still represent a significant threat, Belgium is all but a French satellite at this point. What *might* happen instead is either Belgium gera in on the purchase and it devolves to Dutch hands in an exchange (in which case they might be able to hold Cuba as a proto-corporate state based on fine tobacco - if nothing else they can bond over mojitos and bad-mouth the Spanish together) *or* Belgium devolves Cuba to France in exchange for Artois and possibly Pais de Calais and the port at Calais - if nothing else than guaranteed access and certain trading rights - and avoid the Dutch blockade of the Schnect.

Perhaps Belgians could pick up Cuba later somehow but the US *will* eye the island and likely try for it at some point.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Most of the interaction on this thread seem to have been focused on difficulities in establishing Belgian Cuba, but does anyone have any thoughs about how Beligan Cuba would look like once it has been established?

 

[Slime_blob]

Most of the interaction on this thread seem to have been focused on difficulities in establishing Belgian Cuba, but does anyone have any thoughs about how Beligan Cuba would look like once it has been established?

More belgian architecture, and a land filled with plantations of cash crops

 

[Slime_blob]

Most likely a US intervention to kick belgium as they are weaker than spain IOTL

 

[tonsofun]

I like to think of Flemish architecture taking over. Havana might even closely resemble Ghent or Bruges in some areas. It would certainly make Cuba a more popular tourist destination.