alternatehistory.com

I have just had a thought that it might be useful for Historians and Alternate Historians to talk about the %age probability of something happening to give an idea how truly likely events were.

I came up with:

OTL Barbarossa succeeds = 25% (ie in 100 AH Alternate Universes 25 of them have the Nazis triumphant in the East.

1. Sealion succeeds as planned 2%.

2. Germany conquers US, USSR, UK 0.00001% - impossible from word go which shows how mad AH was.

3. US wins Vietnam 45%

4. Germany wins WWI 18%

5. Japan gets truce with US on its terms keeping sphere of influence (original aim of their attack not to invade US) 1% (again quite mad).

I am a betting man and it is quite interesting to see the events expressed as Odds because it immediately gives a very clear picture and thus is a good basis for a (constructive) argument.

I would be interested to know whether AH'ers agree with the odds I have posted and I'd like those in the know to give some odds for areas of history where the figure might be surprising.

Regards

hammo1j
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