It's in the title. How did the Japanese expect the US to react to Pearl Harbor? How did they envision the war being resolved? What were the Germans' long-term ideas about ending the war with Great Britain? How far into the USSR did they think they could push? Did they expect some sort of permanent war with the partisans and Soviet remnants in the East? Did they expect the government to collapse when Moscow fell? What kind of a post-war world did the Italian leadership envision? How much of Britain's African colonies did they consider absorbing? Did they expect to attain their objectives more through post-war negotiations than military action? Are there any sources for Axis leadership's Alternate History ideas as the war turned against them. What were their could've, should've, would'ves? Did any of them develop Alternate Histories of their own in which their nation was successful?
Historical AH How did the Axis leadership expect to win WWII?
- Thread starter Dr. Luny
- Start date
Generaloberst
Banned
The Japanese fully expected being able to smash the Pacific Fleet and preventing them from being used to counter their goals in the East Indies.
The Germans expected that the Russians had no reserves after the initial push in Barbarossa (up until Moscow) and were shocked when the Far East Army moved men westward. I suppose they expected that, once Moscow fell, the Soviets would lose the will to fight, which is a possibility.
I don't think Germany ever had any territorial ambitions in Africa. They wouldn't had been able to get them, anyway. The most they could've gotten out of Britain was peace and the their oath that they wouldn't go up against them again. Their territorial ambitions were with their former core territories in Central Europe and acquisitions in Eastern Europe.
The Germans expected that the Russians had no reserves after the initial push in Barbarossa (up until Moscow) and were shocked when the Far East Army moved men westward. I suppose they expected that, once Moscow fell, the Soviets would lose the will to fight, which is a possibility.
I don't think Germany ever had any territorial ambitions in Africa. They wouldn't had been able to get them, anyway. The most they could've gotten out of Britain was peace and the their oath that they wouldn't go up against them again. Their territorial ambitions were with their former core territories in Central Europe and acquisitions in Eastern Europe.
Curiousone
Banned
The Japanese knew they couldn't win a long war with the U.S alone. They thought in part that Germany would defeat Russia & they'd both be fighting the U.S and part that the U.S would not be willing to face the casualties it did OTL to take back it's lost territories, essentially because they viewed Democracies as decadent.
So they made a major strategic miscalculation.
Hitler wanted land in the East. Lebensraum. He wanted the food, the oil, the space. That was his focus. Poland, France, Norway etc - all means to that end.
He actually liked the U.K pre-war, wanted a truce with them after the fall of France while he focused on Russia. Figured whether he started war with Russia or they started war with him it was going to go down so he may as well get the jump on them. Blitzkrieg had worked everywhere else, why not try it on Russia? Once he'd taken European Russian he figured Nazi Germany would settle it over the next 20 years (U.K would be forced to submit via subs/bombers, not invaded) & then there'd be a titanic war between Nazi Europe & the U.S.
Italy? Mussolini wanted to recreate the Roman Empire around the Mediterranean. Figured he was onto a winner. Ha.
Various Eastern European countries that allied with the Nazi's? Anti-communism, Nazi subversion.
Generaloberst
Banned
They probably thought about it.
Do you think the US ever thought about physically occupying the Soviet Union?
Negotiated peace. Something along the lines of the 'congresses' of the 19th century rather than the 'we will kill you so hard you will die to death' unconditional surrender trend of the 20th century.
Though that really only applied to their policy towards the Western allies. Against China or Russia it was a whole different ballgame.
Though that really only applied to their policy towards the Western allies. Against China or Russia it was a whole different ballgame.
This is the way I've seen it presented. The Japanese won the Russo-Japanese War and expected the U.S. to react similarly. The problem was that they very nearly lost that particular war, and only managed a win because the tsar had more important issues going on at the time.
The Nazis honestly thought that the Soviets were subhuman and would be unable to stand against them. He'll most of the world expected the Spviet Union to get steamrolled for various reasons (the Red Army's performance in Finland high on that list.)
Well, if the Cold War had ever gone hot, it would have been the end of civilization as we know it, so only the craziest of the crazies on the extreme right might have fantasised about that. But since so many Nazis either were certifiably insane, or surely acted like it, that's why I wondered if they thought about occupying America and Canada.
Generaloberst
Banned
Why does it have to be on the extreme right? The US Armed Force is notorious for thinking of contingencies for contingencies for contingencies. I'm sure there's a plan laying in the Pentagon somewhere about the possibility of a prolonged occupation on Soviet soil.
deathscompanion1
Banned
There is a semi official plan for how to react to an armed uprising by the girl scouts of America.
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
With good reason. Don't try and tell me those sashes aren't part of some secret military uniform.
Himmler I am sure imagined finding things like the key to the power of the elder gods in the weird expeditions he would order. Imagining ruling America is kind of tame in comparison to what some of them I am sure imagined.
But, in terms of conquering America, Hitler believed there would be a conflict one day between the New World and Old World, but didn't expect in the 30s the war between the New and Old World to occur in his life time.
And if you ask them about their Zombie Plan they'll tell you you need to be more specific, they've probably got at least 37 of them.
I don't think the Japanese really expected to win in the sense of conquering the US or UK.
They expected to knock them out of the war long enough to 1) capture the resource territories and 2) build a defense perimeter.
From there they presumed a negotiated settlement in which their hegemony over Asia was accepted.
They expected to knock them out of the war long enough to 1) capture the resource territories and 2) build a defense perimeter.
From there they presumed a negotiated settlement in which their hegemony over Asia was accepted.
katchen
Banned
From reading Newt Gingrich and Fortchsen's AH about Pearl Harbor (which appears to be quite well researched--much better than anything of Robert Conroy's--Newt Gingrich IS after all, a history professor)the Japanese expected to do serious damage to the US fleet at Pearl Harbor. Enough damage to force the US to reconsider it's embargo against Japan and negotiate a settlement with Japan.
That is why Admiral Naguno's orders did not include destruction of Pearl Harbor's oil depots or dry docks or why care was not taken to see that the aircraft carriers were in port before launching the attack. According to Gingrich's theory, the SNEAK attack was neither planned nor intended, but the result of the Foreign Ministry and Japanese Embassy dithering and delaying in relaying the message of Japan's declaration of war against the US.
Admiral Yamamoto, according to Gingrich, knew that the fact that the Americans were caught completely unawares and had no declaration of war from Japan meant that no peace was possible unless further resistance was possible. In Gingrich's ATL, Yamamoto is persuaded by fellow officers to lead the attack personally instead of remaining behind in Tokyo. As a result, Yamamoto is able to make an on the spot decision to reduce Pearl Harbor with a third wave of naval strikes and then go after the aircraft carriers.
As far as what the Germans were thinking, I suspect that they were genuinely surprised when the British continued the war after the British Expeditionary Force was forced to leave all it's equipment behind at Dunkirk. They offered Great Britain very liberal peace terms that would have had the UK keeping it's Empire (which by the way, going after Nazi Germany caused the UK to lose). They did not expect the UK to doggedly and bloody mindedly continue hostilities even at the cost of ultimately subordinating itself to the United States and forfeiting it's Empire and status as a Great Power.
That is why Admiral Naguno's orders did not include destruction of Pearl Harbor's oil depots or dry docks or why care was not taken to see that the aircraft carriers were in port before launching the attack. According to Gingrich's theory, the SNEAK attack was neither planned nor intended, but the result of the Foreign Ministry and Japanese Embassy dithering and delaying in relaying the message of Japan's declaration of war against the US.
Admiral Yamamoto, according to Gingrich, knew that the fact that the Americans were caught completely unawares and had no declaration of war from Japan meant that no peace was possible unless further resistance was possible. In Gingrich's ATL, Yamamoto is persuaded by fellow officers to lead the attack personally instead of remaining behind in Tokyo. As a result, Yamamoto is able to make an on the spot decision to reduce Pearl Harbor with a third wave of naval strikes and then go after the aircraft carriers.
As far as what the Germans were thinking, I suspect that they were genuinely surprised when the British continued the war after the British Expeditionary Force was forced to leave all it's equipment behind at Dunkirk. They offered Great Britain very liberal peace terms that would have had the UK keeping it's Empire (which by the way, going after Nazi Germany caused the UK to lose). They did not expect the UK to doggedly and bloody mindedly continue hostilities even at the cost of ultimately subordinating itself to the United States and forfeiting it's Empire and status as a Great Power.
BlondieBC
Banned
The planning and decision to attack was made in the summer/fall of 1941. the USA Army, the Japanese, and the Germans all expected Russia basically to fold. So let's do a quick TL where thing happened as the planners expect. What did not happen that was outside of Japan's control is as important what Japan could do.
Axis Win TL:
December 1941. The Germans have broken major resistance in Moscow and are in final mopping up. They are largely setting up winter quarters, and things are going good enough that forces are being transferred from the AG Central to AG South. Leningrad has been cutoff for a few months and is out of food. Hitler decides to just let them starve. AG South has easily secured the Don and is beginning a major push to secure the Volga.
Pearl Harbor happens and the rest much as OTL, but the three carriers are in port. The Japanese lose two carriers as their plans called for, and the USA loses 3 carriers more than OTL. The only saving grace is the USS Arizona and another BB are operational on December 8th.
Feb 1942: Spain enters the war since it is clear who is winning. Gibraltar falls within the month. Italian Navy is now free to join up with some German units. Setbacks continue in horn of Africa for Italy, and North Africa is a problem towards Egypt, but analysis indicate the Germans have plenty of units to transfer to area.
FDR not only orders no reinforcement to go from Atlantic to Pacific, he begins to flow naval units from Pacific to Atlantic. Central Pacific command told to cope with resource at hand and go on defensive if necessary. No reinforcements should be expected. SW Pacific told to hold Australia.
FDR greenlights OTL plans to take ALL Atlantic Island not held by allied warring powers. Canaries, Azores, etc. These operations take away any units used for offensive operations in Pacific IOTL.
March 1942: Volga line is secured. Russia is effectively out of the war, with no effective units larger than a corp, and few of these units left.
Heavy LW reinforcements seen throughout the Med Basin.
April 1942: Intelligence indicates that the Sea Lion Plans are being reviewed as well as serious studies of how to win Suez Canal or otherwise knockout UK. Intel say Germans also are beginning to look at how to attack USA.
July 1942: Full AA line is secured in Russia. Germany starts standing down some land units to free up manpower. Industrial plans are focused on the Navy and LW.
Rest of war in Pacific is much as OTL, except the Japanese carriers were not lost. Port Morseby fell. Japan does not go for Midway and Aleutians. No Doolittle raid.
Japan extends peace offer to USA. Maybe backstabbing to Germany peace offer, Maybe joint Axis peace offer. USA accepts.
I know it seems optimistic for Axis in Europe, but this TL is basically the US Army official prediction in late 1941 for Europe. FDR in this scenario is looking for need to build up 200, not 100 divisions. We are dealing with planes and U-boats out of Spain and West Africa. The extra three carriers never leave the Atlantic. The USA will not be able to match Japanese carrier numbers until mid-1943. The peace offer should look tempting. Remember Churchill quote about how he would make a deal with the devil to stop Hitler. Here Japan is the devil. Now Japan still has huge issues. It can't attack more for lack of industry and freighters. It has too much land to hold and too few divisions, mostly a China issue. The USA will win if it goes Japan first, which is likely in 1943 and 1944 since Germany will be too strong to attack, and what else do we do with all these ships.
Or put another way. Take Calbear's Anglo American TL. Move up the time frame on successes for Germany by a bit. Have FDR decide to use Marines in the Atlantic to do things like take small islands, secure West Africa. Then have Japan extend a "generous" peace offer. And the Japan offer may be the hardest part. Would Japan do something like allow Phillippines to be true independent and neutral. Give back Wake Island? Maybe give the Aussies some land back? Hard for me to say.
Axis Win TL:
December 1941. The Germans have broken major resistance in Moscow and are in final mopping up. They are largely setting up winter quarters, and things are going good enough that forces are being transferred from the AG Central to AG South. Leningrad has been cutoff for a few months and is out of food. Hitler decides to just let them starve. AG South has easily secured the Don and is beginning a major push to secure the Volga.
Pearl Harbor happens and the rest much as OTL, but the three carriers are in port. The Japanese lose two carriers as their plans called for, and the USA loses 3 carriers more than OTL. The only saving grace is the USS Arizona and another BB are operational on December 8th.
Feb 1942: Spain enters the war since it is clear who is winning. Gibraltar falls within the month. Italian Navy is now free to join up with some German units. Setbacks continue in horn of Africa for Italy, and North Africa is a problem towards Egypt, but analysis indicate the Germans have plenty of units to transfer to area.
FDR not only orders no reinforcement to go from Atlantic to Pacific, he begins to flow naval units from Pacific to Atlantic. Central Pacific command told to cope with resource at hand and go on defensive if necessary. No reinforcements should be expected. SW Pacific told to hold Australia.
FDR greenlights OTL plans to take ALL Atlantic Island not held by allied warring powers. Canaries, Azores, etc. These operations take away any units used for offensive operations in Pacific IOTL.
March 1942: Volga line is secured. Russia is effectively out of the war, with no effective units larger than a corp, and few of these units left.
Heavy LW reinforcements seen throughout the Med Basin.
April 1942: Intelligence indicates that the Sea Lion Plans are being reviewed as well as serious studies of how to win Suez Canal or otherwise knockout UK. Intel say Germans also are beginning to look at how to attack USA.
July 1942: Full AA line is secured in Russia. Germany starts standing down some land units to free up manpower. Industrial plans are focused on the Navy and LW.
Rest of war in Pacific is much as OTL, except the Japanese carriers were not lost. Port Morseby fell. Japan does not go for Midway and Aleutians. No Doolittle raid.
Japan extends peace offer to USA. Maybe backstabbing to Germany peace offer, Maybe joint Axis peace offer. USA accepts.
I know it seems optimistic for Axis in Europe, but this TL is basically the US Army official prediction in late 1941 for Europe. FDR in this scenario is looking for need to build up 200, not 100 divisions. We are dealing with planes and U-boats out of Spain and West Africa. The extra three carriers never leave the Atlantic. The USA will not be able to match Japanese carrier numbers until mid-1943. The peace offer should look tempting. Remember Churchill quote about how he would make a deal with the devil to stop Hitler. Here Japan is the devil. Now Japan still has huge issues. It can't attack more for lack of industry and freighters. It has too much land to hold and too few divisions, mostly a China issue. The USA will win if it goes Japan first, which is likely in 1943 and 1944 since Germany will be too strong to attack, and what else do we do with all these ships.
Or put another way. Take Calbear's Anglo American TL. Move up the time frame on successes for Germany by a bit. Have FDR decide to use Marines in the Atlantic to do things like take small islands, secure West Africa. Then have Japan extend a "generous" peace offer. And the Japan offer may be the hardest part. Would Japan do something like allow Phillippines to be true independent and neutral. Give back Wake Island? Maybe give the Aussies some land back? Hard for me to say.
They make plans like this in order to encourage out of the box thinking, it's the same reason they have a detailed scenario planned out for zombies rising from their graves too.
Mookie
Banned
That is too much mistakes on allied part to even be possible.
No sane person would put their carriers and fleet into atlantic when all the germans have are U-boats.
Most likely thing, if more destructive pearl harbour hapens is naval buildup on the atlantic coast with heavy fortification on the western coast, using the industrial superiority to build superior forces while holding ground and then knocking out the Japanese
Some of their Admirals knew better, but since they given orders to plan a war and they did. A good question is would that plan work had they not sucker-punched the USN to start the war?