Hirohito stops Pearl Harbor

What was the extent of Hirohitos power, could he have stopped Japan's strike on Pearl Harbor? If, yes, what would the 40s or 50s look like for fascist Japan if it hypothetically averted Pearl Harbor.

This is to see how the war with China plays out and how Japan navigates the Cold War, and if Hirohito could have stopped Pearl Harbor had he wanted
 
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The problem with a lot of "avert Pearl Harbor" pods is that they ignore the economic forces pushing Japan to make rash decisions such as attacking the US.
Japan had minuscule oil production capacity and its national reserve stock was near depletion. Economic collapse was imminent.
Dutch East Indian oil had to be secured, and to make the sea lanes safe to transport crude, the Philippines had to be neutralized; and the only way to ensure that was by attacking the US in some capacity.
Whether or not Pearl Harbor happens as per OTL, an attack on the US is inevitable, regardless of Hirohito's spiritual power to command otherwise. It was either that or risk national implosion whether through the humiliation of a withdrawal from China, or just sitting on their hands.

Moreover, this doesn't even touch the socio-political/pseudo-spiritual machinations of military-ruled Japan that also pushed the leaders into flights of fancy when planning grand strategy. You can bet that also played a role in decision to attack the US.
 
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The problem with a lot of "avert Pearl Harbor" pods is that they ignore the economic forces pushing Japan to make rash decisions such as attacking the US.
Japan had minuscule oil production capacity and its national reserve stock was near depletion. Economic collapse was imminent.
Dutch East Indian oil had to be secured, and to make the sea lanes safe to transport crude, the Philippines had to be neutralized; and the only way to ensure that was by attacking the US in some capacity.
Whether or not Pearl Harbor happens as per OTL, an attack on the US is inevitable, regardless of Hirohito's spiritual power to command otherwise. It was either that or risk national implosion whether through the humiliation of a withdrawal from China, or just sitting on their hands.
They could just ignore the Philippines for now- as long as they don't piss off the USA too much, they have some time to fight into an overland route in China to secure a 'backup route' that ignored the Philippines. They did make a overland China route OTL, after all, while fighting the USA.
 
The problem with a lot of "avert Pearl Harbor" pods is that they ignore the economic forces pushing Japan to make rash decisions such as attacking the US.
Japan had no Oil and its national reserve stock was near depletion.
Dutch East Indian oil had to be secured, and to make the sea lanes safe, the Philippines had to be neutralized; and the only way to ensure that was by attacking the US in some capacity.
Whether or not Pearl Harbor happens as per OTL, an attack on the US is inevitable, regardless of Hirohito's spiritual power to command otherwise.

As was the case with the Germans impetus for the attack on the USSR. But hypothetically could Hirohito have stopped it had he wanted to. Even in the case of Germany. Hitlerr didnt have to declare war on the USSR if he didnt want to. They could just take the hit of having depleted oil reserves. I mean how bad is that really for the Japanese?
 
As was the case with the Germans impetus for the attack on the USSR. But hypothetically could Hirohito have stopped it had he wanted to. Even in the case of Germany. Hitlerr didnt have to declare war on the USSR if he didnt want to. They could just take the hit of having depleted oil reserves. I mean how bad is that really for the Japanese?

Japan was a highly industrialized economy. Oil didn't just fuel the tanks (few that they had), planes, and navy. But also the entire production network on the home islands. Without oil, it all stops. What then? Collapse, and most likely a series of coups against whatever government deemed it impossible to attack south and seize the oil.

They could just ignore the Philippines for now- as long as they don't piss off the USA too much, they have some time to fight into an overland route in China to secure a 'backup route' that ignored the Philippines. They did make a overland China route OTL, after all, while fighting the USA.

Transporting what would've been thousands of tons of crude oil via an overland route within China would be astronomically costly, though I defer to the more educated on the plausibility of this option.
 
Hirohito- even if he was The Emperor- would
quite likely have been assinated or if not that, deposed.
 
Transporting what would've been thousands of tons of crude oil via an overland route within China would be astronomically costly, though I defer to the more educated on the plausibility of this option.

Fuel comparison
transport mode Fuel consumption

BTU per short ton-mile


Domestic waterborne 217

Class 1 railroads 289

Heavy trucks 3,357

Air freight (approx.) 9,600
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=453772

There was a railway all along the land taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ichi-Go . Rail transport is relatively cheap, as shown here (the only thing cheaper over land is pipeline)- which is why you can use CDN rail lines in lieu of pipelines- at least until an accident happens.

Which was why they did that invasion OTL anyways, moving critical resources from the Pacific to China.

We use rail all the time to transport oil- cost is not the issue.


The issue is vulnerability to PRC guerillas, and the fact that the railway would still be vulnerable to American bombing raids.

Also, it would have moved even more troops and supplies from the Kuomintang, as it did in OTL, and give the USA more time to heavily defend its Pacific possessions.
 
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Hirohito- even if he was The Emperor- would
quite likely have been assinated or if not that, deposed.
No, it wouldn't. The decision to attack the USA was controversial even in the Navy. The IJN could easily decide not to without any interference from Hirohito.
 
The problem with a lot of "avert Pearl Harbor" pods is that they ignore the economic forces pushing Japan to make rash decisions such as attacking the US.
Japan had minuscule oil production capacity and its national reserve stock was near depletion. Economic collapse was imminent.
Dutch East Indian oil had to be secured, and to make the sea lanes safe to transport crude, the Philippines had to be neutralized; and the only way to ensure that was by attacking the US in some capacity.
Whether or not Pearl Harbor happens as per OTL, an attack on the US is inevitable, regardless of Hirohito's spiritual power to command otherwise. It was either that or risk national implosion whether through the humiliation of a withdrawal from China, or just sitting on their hands.

Moreover, this doesn't even touch the socio-political/pseudo-spiritual machinations of military-ruled Japan that also pushed the leaders into flights of fancy when planning grand strategy. You can bet that also played a role in decision to attack the US.

Indeed; however, I've been recently pondering if it would have been possible to "play out the clock" as it were, pursuit some deal with a potential Fascist government in the Netherlands (Similar in a vein to the Iron Guard) brought in with Nazi support to sell oil to Japan long enough to keep their economy chugging until the Commonwealth period for the Philippines expired in 1944, leading to the promised independence by the U.S and the (likely, in my opinion) election of a government wary of strong co-operation with the U.S. I'm not confident, given the resource demands of the Axis and German designs on the Dutch (as well as the math of Japanese war logistics and the degree to which the U.S and U.K were willing to accept hightened tensions/build-up of their power in the region), but what do you think?
 
Japan was a highly industrialized economy. Oil didn't just fuel the tanks (few that they had), planes, and navy. But also the entire production network on the home islands. Without oil, it all stops. What then? Collapse, and most likely a series of coups against whatever government deemed it impossible to attack south and seize the oil.

They wouldn't have no oil. Japan had domestic oil production. Even your worse case scenario minus about 100 million barrels of Indonesian oil is preferable than war with the US. And not declaring on the US necessarily means not declaring on the Dutch in the minds of the Japanese. If they can hold on until 1945 the USSR possibly declares war on them after dealing with Germany deciding the issue. Japan loses all of Korea and Manchuria but their regime still survives because the USSR cannot invade mainland Japan.
 
They could just ignore the Philippines for now- as long as they don't piss off the USA too much, they have some time to fight into an overland route in China to secure a 'backup route' that ignored the Philippines. They did make a overland China route OTL, after all, while fighting the USA.

The US had already declared in the Autumn of 1941 that any Japanese aggression against the British or Dutch would mean war. If the Japanese refrain from striking Pearl, the Philippines or other US possessions, they’ve only hamstrung their invasion of SE Asia.
 

CalBear

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No, it wouldn't. The decision to attack the USA was controversial even in the Navy. The IJN could easily decide not to without any interference from Hirohito.

The danger wasn't from the Navy, it was from a close to out of control Army, where a number of field grade officers had decided that they were in the right and those who opposed the war against China were not just wrong, but a clear and present danger to Japan. Yamamoto wasn't promoted to CinC Combined Fleet purely on merit. The top levels of the Navy were fairly sure that he was going to be assassinated by the Army for speaking out against war with the U.S. and the safest place for him was aboard the Combined Fleet flagship.

The same goes for other members of the IJN leadership. There is also the reality that both the Army and Navy ministers could bring down the government simply be being reaclled to another command by their service and not replaced.
Indeed; however, I've been recently pondering if it would have been possible to "play out the clock" as it were, pursuit some deal with a potential Fascist government in the Netherlands (Similar in a vein to the Iron Guard) brought in with Nazi support to sell oil to Japan long enough to keep their economy chugging until the Commonwealth period for the Philippines expired in 1944, leading to the promised independence by the U.S and the (likely, in my opinion) election of a government wary of strong co-operation with the U.S. I'm not confident, given the resource demands of the Axis and German designs on the Dutch (as well as the math of Japanese war logistics and the degree to which the U.S and U.K were willing to accept hightened tensions/build-up of their power in the region), but what do you think?

The difficulty, of course, is that the U.S. and UK wouldn't recognize any Axis government in the DEI (same as the Embargo was caused by the IJA entering French Indochina, the Vichy government allowed, the U.S. and UK (along with the Dutch government in exile) said no.

The Japanese were very much on the horns of a dilemma, one of their own making. The Army lacked the oil to continue wartime operations past May of 1942, the IJN had fuel to conduct current operation levels into very early 1943. After that, game over. By pushing the West into the Embargo the Japanese military had gained very little and lost the fuel needed to operate. That meant they had to get oil, the only possible source was in the DEI. The chances the British would stand by and allow that were virtually nil (not to mention that the Malay Peninsula was just chock full of vital resources, including rubber). That meant the British bases in the region, including Singapore and in British Borneo had to be dealt with.

The U.S. was, almost unintentionally sitting on various locations that were deadly threats to the Japanese. Wake put the Marshall Islands within bombing range (and the U.S.was extending the runway to allow use by B-17s), Guam was within 120 miles of Saipan and Tinian, and the Philippines sat dead on the trade routes from the DEI and Malay Peninsula to the Home Islands while also placing Formosa and the Chinese coast from Shanghai to Hainan at risk of air attack.

The same issue arises over movement by rail. It takes TIME to build railways, especially in the region of Northern Malaya, and the British were again in position to interdict any movement of materials in the South China Sea/Gulf of Tonkin. Time was the mortal enemy of Japan.

One of the first things military planners have to do is consider possible threats to an operation. The British and U.S. bases presented not just one threat, but a series of them, not just to the movement of resources but to the establishment of reasonable defensive perimeter. The mission planners had literally no choice but to honor the threat.
 
They wouldn't have no oil. Japan had domestic oil production. Even your worse case scenario minus about 100 million barrels of Indonesian oil is preferable than war with the US. And not declaring on the US necessarily means not declaring on the Dutch in the minds of the Japanese. If they can hold on until 1945 the USSR possibly declares war on them after dealing with Germany deciding the issue. Japan loses all of Korea and Manchuria but their regime still survives because the USSR cannot invade mainland Japan.
Japan imported 90% of its oil. No oil means no war machines, no factories, no boats to transport anything. No marching into China, no defending against the USSR. Their economy was dependent on the stuff, especially from America (80% of the oil imported). Japan had, what, about 2.7 million barrels of domestic production, 1 million a piece from Manchuria and Taiwan? America produced that much in a day.

Japan invested a huge amount into developing Manchuria and Korea, the resource banks from which Japan industry could flourish. They sent millions of Japanese to colonize their new acquisitions. Abandon all of that? Give up every gain, outside of Taiwan, that they had painstakingly seized for the past half century? The regime might not collapse but its legitimacy is going down the toilet.
 
Japan was a highly industrialized economy. Oil didn't just fuel the tanks (few that they had), planes, and navy. But also the entire production network on the home islands. Without oil, it all stops. What then? Collapse, and most likely a series of coups against whatever government deemed it impossible to attack south and seize the oil.

Most of the Japanese domestic economy ran on Coal, not Oil
The Oil had to flow so the Army could keep going deeper into the morass that was China.

And as 1945 showed, little Oil was getting in, but it didn't stop, no collapse: though that was on the Horizon.

In 1940, the Japanese should have played nice with he Dutch Government in Exile, and not occupy Vietnam from Vichy, try to avoid the big US embargo.

But to do that would require a lot of IJA heads to roll
 
Japan imported 90% of its oil. No oil means no war machines, no factories, no boats to transport anything. No marching into China, no defending against the USSR. Their economy was dependent on the stuff, especially from America (80% of the oil imported). Japan had, what, about 2.7 million barrels of domestic production, 1 million a piece from Manchuria and Taiwan? America produced that much in a day.

Japan invested a huge amount into developing Manchuria and Korea, the resource banks from which Japan industry could flourish. They sent millions of Japanese to colonize their new acquisitions. Abandon all of that? Give up every gain, outside of Taiwan, that they had painstakingly seized for the past half century? The regime might not collapse but its legitimacy is going down the toilet.

That sounds about what Germanys domestic oil production was (assuming that is monthly). They have enough domestic oil for petroleum byproducts used in industry, agriculture etc. (Assuming the Japanese oil is good for making them), but all their tanks, planes and automobiles sit collecting dust. Just like Germany in 1945. This is assuming the Dutch don't start selling oil again to Japan out of need for money, to preserve their own empire.

This is assuming Stalin would actually attack as a worse case which he could as well not do. The Chinese aren't going to defeat the Japanese if they run out of oil for the army and navy, at best a stalemate. If the USSR does do this it means Japan would go more to the US side during the Cold War.

If the Dutch faced with Indonesian rebellion are even in a position to still sell the oil late 1945. It may be independent Indonesia late 1945 would be selling the oil and not the Dutch
 
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The US had already declared in the Autumn of 1941 that any Japanese aggression against the British or Dutch would mean war. If the Japanese refrain from striking Pearl, the Philippines or other US possessions, they’ve only hamstrung their invasion of SE Asia.
Source?

This is what I found after searching through Wikipedia:

Richardson asked the President if the United States was going to war. Roosevelt's view was:

At least as early as October 8, 1940, ...affairs had reached such a state that the United States would become involved in a war with Japan. ... 'that if the Japanese attacked Thailand, or the Kra Peninsula, or the Dutch East Indies we would not enter the war, that if they even attacked the Philippines he doubted whether we would enter the war, but that they (the Japanese) could not always avoid making mistakes and that as the war continued and that area of operations expanded sooner or later they would make a mistake and we would enter the war.' ... .[5][6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

Japan could attack the DEI without going to war with the USA. Remember, the USA was still isolationist and mostly anti-imperialist, and getting them to go to war with Japan over an imperial possession of a foreign power? I find that hard to believe.

Japan was also not involved in unrestricted submarine warfare- meaning a direct attack on American possessions is unlikely. Japan only became public enemy No. 1 because of Pearl Harbour.

Roosevelt would much rather had the war started over the Nazis, not Japan. :/
 
That sounds about what Germanys domestic oil production was (assuming that is monthly). They have enough domestic oil for petroleum byproducts used in industry, agriculture etc. (Assuming the Japanese oil is good for making them), but all their tanks, planes and automobiles sit collecting dust. Just like Germany in 1945. This is assuming the Dutch don't start selling oil again to Japan out of need for money, to preserve their own empire.

This is assuming Stalin would actually attack as a worse case which he could as well not do. The Chinese aren't going to defeat the Japanese if they run out of oil for the army and navy, at best a stalemate. If the USSR does do this it means Japan would go more to the US side during the Cold War.

If the Dutch faced with Indonesian rebellion are even in a position to still sell the oil late 1945. It may be independent Indonesia late 1945 would be selling the oil and not the Dutch
Nope, the oil figure is apparently annual. Japan's domestic oil production was really, really low. Apparently, Akita produced 1.6 million barrels a year, 73% of the total domestic production.

http://pwencycl.kgbudge.com/A/k/Akita.htm

As for Japan being on the US side, weren't they? They were pretty clearly US aligned during the Cold War.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Source?

This is what I found after searching through Wikipedia:

Richardson asked the President if the United States was going to war. Roosevelt's view was:

At least as early as October 8, 1940, ...affairs had reached such a state that the United States would become involved in a war with Japan. ... 'that if the Japanese attacked Thailand, or the Kra Peninsula, or the Dutch East Indies we would not enter the war, that if they even attacked the Philippines he doubted whether we would enter the war, but that they (the Japanese) could not always avoid making mistakes and that as the war continued and that area of operations expanded sooner or later they would make a mistake and we would enter the war.' ... .[5][6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

Japan could attack the DEI without going to war with the USA. Remember, the USA was still isolationist and mostly anti-imperialist, and getting them to go to war with Japan over an imperial possession of a foreign power? I find that hard to believe.

Japan was also not involved in unrestricted submarine warfare- meaning a direct attack on American possessions is unlikely. Japan only became public enemy No. 1 because of Pearl Harbour.

Roosevelt would much rather had the war started over the Nazis, not Japan. :/
Again, the issue is that you have to honor the threat.

In the eyes of the Japanese (who had nothing close to the U.S. system of checks and balances) if FDR raised an eyebrow the U.S. goes to war. The Japanese had very few actual experts on the U.S., and few of those were given even a minimal hearing.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Source?

This is what I found after searching through Wikipedia:

Richardson asked the President if the United States was going to war. Roosevelt's view was:

At least as early as October 8, 1940, ...affairs had reached such a state that the United States would become involved in a war with Japan. ... 'that if the Japanese attacked Thailand, or the Kra Peninsula, or the Dutch East Indies we would not enter the war, that if they even attacked the Philippines he doubted whether we would enter the war, but that they (the Japanese) could not always avoid making mistakes and that as the war continued and that area of operations expanded sooner or later they would make a mistake and we would enter the war.' ... .[5][6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

Japan could attack the DEI without going to war with the USA. Remember, the USA was still isolationist and mostly anti-imperialist, and getting them to go to war with Japan over an imperial possession of a foreign power? I find that hard to believe.

Japan was also not involved in unrestricted submarine warfare- meaning a direct attack on American possessions is unlikely. Japan only became public enemy No. 1 because of Pearl Harbour.

Roosevelt would much rather had the war started over the Nazis, not Japan. :/
The United States was not at war with Germany either in 1940 or for most of 1941. But US Navy warships still escorted British convoys and attacked German warships on sight in International waters with no warning issued. I have a very strong suspicion that Roosevelt would have done the same thing to Japan. And the Japanese likely knew it.
 
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