Hinckley Assassinates Carter in October 1980

Eh, it's more complicated than that. Polls at the time found Carter more likable than Reagan, and Reagan's polling lead was weak for most of the fall, breaking wide in the final weekend as undecideds shifted to Carter (partly induced by the debate and by the final collapse of hostage negotiations).

Reagan still would have won under most circumstances in 1980, given the depth of Carter's unpopularity. But things were fluid enough that a presidential assassination a month before the election would, IMO, swing things to Mondale.

This.

What ultimately did Carter in was the anniversary of the Hostage Crisis, which was around election day. It was another reminder of Carter's failure.

Reagan was by no-means a shoe-in. Having said that, I'm not sure if Carter's assassination was enough to push Mondale over the top.
 
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