Hillary Clinton Never Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton came very close to declining Obama's offer of becoming Secretary of State, even calling him to tell him she was declining, before he convinced her to accept during the conversation. The next man on Obama's list was John Kerry. So how would things change in Obama's administration with a Secretary of State John Kerry in 2009, rather than Clinton? How would Clinton fare for the next 8 years in the Senate? And how would this effect the leadup to the Democratic primaries?
 

Asami

Banned
I can almost guarantee that John Kerry would not have been seriously considered for 2016 by anyone after his loss in 2004.
 
I can almost guarantee that John Kerry would not have been seriously considered for 2016 by anyone after his loss in 2004.

I know he wouldn't have been a candidate in 2016. That ship had sailed a long time ago, but might this rehabilitate his image a bit?
 
Foreign policy changes likely very little as Kerry would be carrying out Obama's pre determined FP moves, the only changes might be in stances on issues in internal debates/actions in meetings.

Unsure as to whether Kerry would stand down after four years in 2013 as has been the tradition for most Secretaries of State; he could potentially carry on but unlikely given the strains of the job after four years. Benghazi still happens and Susan Rice's downfall from the State nomination in 2013 accompanies it, so interesting to see nominees for State if Kerry elects to resign in 2013. I'd say Thomas Donilon, Samantha Power, maybe even Al Gore.

Also if Kerry is at State in 2009 it creates a second Senate vacancy for Massachusetts in 2009, thus the winner of the special election to replace Kerry in spring 2009 would become the Senior Senator when EMK dies in August. It'll be a Democrat as this was the height of Obamamania; maybe Ed Markey four years early or another Congressional/state official Dem?
 
Also if Kerry is at State in 2009 it creates a second Senate vacancy for Massachusetts in 2009, thus the winner of the special election to replace Kerry in spring 2009 would become the Senior Senator when EMK dies in August. It'll be a Democrat as this was the height of Obamamania; maybe Ed Markey four years early or another Congressional/state official Dem?

Could Warren run early?
 
She wouldn't. Her political interest didn't really start until the CFPB was created.

This.

Now a special election usually takes between 4-6 months dependent on setting so assuming Kerry resigns his seat in January 2009, we'd see a special election between May and July 2009. Candidates in this will likely be the ones who ran for EMK's seat in 2009/10 (AG Coakley, Congressman Capuano etc) and I'd wager Martha Coakley would win the seat as a result of the Obama honeymoon period (even if she is a terrible campaigner)

Now, this of course creates butterflies for the special election for EMK's seat if Coakley is instead elected to Kerry's seat in the summer of 2009 instead of losing to Brown in spring 2010. Given that there was only 100,000 votes in it OTL out of 2.2 million, it can go either way, a Dem like Capuano or Markey could win it with a better run campaign than Coakley OTL or Brown can still win as he did.
 
Coming back to this, how would Coakley winnig Kerry's seat and then the Democrats holding onto their supermajority affect policy?
 
What about having someone like Richard Neal, U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 1st congressional nominated, succeed John Kerry.

If I was Obama and had to pick some one I would nominate, Former Senator of Georgia, Sam Nunn, this appointment, could also appease the southerners, instead of having all three head positions, filled by northerners.

Other options are
- Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius (OTL bececame Secretary of Health and Human Services)
- Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana
- Indiana Senator Evan Bayh
- USMC General James L. Jones of Missouri
 
I'd say Thomas Donilon, Samantha Power, maybe even Al Gore.

Though Obama and Power fell out over Libya and have diametrically opposed views on foreign policy, especially Syria, i.e humanitarian intervention vs don't do stupid shit (Obama). Susan Rice would be likely if she's still credible.
 
Hillary would likely have better odds running for the Presidency in 2016, at least initially. Her time at the state department not only is what a lot of the GOP is using against her, but its the source of her current troubles with the FBI over her server.

I said initially though because she may do worse in the long term, without being able to tie herself to the Obama administration and sell herself as his third term, having never been a part of it. This loses her if nothing else a good chunk of the black vote that has carried in in many states, and Sanders, or someone else, could be clobbering her more than OTL.
 
Hillary Clinton was one of the advisers to push for the Bin Laden raid, so that might be butterflied or delayed.
 
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