Hideyoshi stays home - No Imjin War

raharris1973

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The Imjin War, Japan's invasion of Korea (and fantasies of conquering China & India from there) under Shogun Hideyoshi was a rather aberrant episode in Japan's history.

It is explained not only in terms of Hideyoshi's ambitions for his own glory, but as a "solution" for the "problem" of a vast warrior caste, the Samurai, rendered unemployed by the establishment of internal peace under Hideyoshi and his predecessor Shogun, Oda Nobunaga. "What do y'all do when you unite and stop killing each other?" Go off to fight other nations seemed to be Hideyoshi's answer.

However, after the last gasp of aggression against Korea in 1598, Hideyoshi and then Tokugawa suspended the policy of foreign aggression for nearly 3 centuries. The arguably parasitic samurai class remained in existence in those centuries, employed in neither internal nor external wars for the most part. They spent their time gambling, writing poetry, decorating, gardening and turning their various methods of fighting into elaborate, artsy-fartsy, combat ineffective "martial arts". Meanwhile the Shogunate increasingly repressed Christianity and established a tight regime to control external trade by the middle 1600s

Could Hideyoshi have simply taken this latter approach of internal pacification without external aggression throughout his rule?

What effects would/could this have had in Japan? Would internal order be any more difficult to keep? I do not know what casualties the Japanese lost in the Imjin War, but was it significant in percentage terms of the Japanese Samurai class? Was it necessary or sufficient for the Edo Shoguns to "cull" potential troublemakers?

How would Japan's economy have evolved differently with less expenditure of blood and treasure, but also without Korean booty and slaves. Did Japan obtain cultural inputs from its war in Korea that it did not have as much access to through peacetime trade?

Lack of an Imjin War would affect Korea even more, with its people, land and infrastructure far less damaged. What would the 1600s and 1700s and 1800s be like for an undevasted Korea, that at most has to deal with some Manchu invasions in the far north?

And what of China? The Chinese by every measure won the Imjin War and rescued Korea. However, it involved significant effort and coincided with at least two other major security crises (I think a tribal insurrection in the southwest and a rebellion in the northwest). If there is no need for a Korean expedition, how does this influence China's economy, the reign of Wanli and his successors, and the Ming Emperor's relations with the eunuch and scholarly classes?
 

RousseauX

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What effects would/could this have had in Japan? Would internal order be any more difficult to keep? I do not know what casualties the Japanese lost in the Imjin War, but was it significant in percentage terms of the Japanese Samurai class? Was it necessary or sufficient for the Edo Shoguns to "cull" potential troublemakers?
The war was mainly fought by the lords of western Japan, leaving the forces of Eastern Japan (including Tokugawa's) largely untouched. This became pretty important in the power struggle after Hideyoshi's death and the ultimately defeat of the loyalist west versus the Tokugawa east.
 
the problem with internal pacification, is that Ieyasu managed to do that after a costly conflict not also weakened his enemies but allowed him to create a spoils system of sorts. Clans that supported Ieyasu where given land, clans that opposed him where greatly weakened. Hideyoshi would risk starting another civil if he tried to curb power in general, unlike trying to favor one side over the other, it might cause to turn his forces elsewhere.
 
*CoughManilaCough*
Manila was under Spanish dominion at the time, I believe.

Maybe Hideyoshi asks favours with the Spanish and Portuguese for ship transports and land his excess Samurai and skilled farmers and craftsmen to check out the North American Pacific landmass and lay claim to the region after doing battle with the Native American Indians for choice lands and river water rights for farming and industry..... meh.
 
Manila was under Spanish dominion at the time, I believe.

Maybe Hideyoshi asks favours with the Spanish and Portuguese for ship transports and land his excess Samurai and skilled farmers and craftsmen to check out the North American Pacific landmass and lay claim to the region after doing battle with the Native American Indians for choice lands and river water rights for farming and industry..... meh.

More likely, the Philippines are a substitute for Korea. They're too far away for Spain to support and the garrisons too small to contest a concerted effort by Hideyoshi, if he so desired.

But why Hideyoshi would actually go for Manila instead of Korea flies in the face of both Hideyoshi's and Japanese interests.
 
Manila was under Spanish dominion at the time, I believe.

Maybe Hideyoshi asks favours with the Spanish and Portuguese for ship transports and land his excess Samurai and skilled farmers and craftsmen to check out the North American Pacific landmass and lay claim to the region after doing battle with the Native American Indians for choice lands and river water rights for farming and industry..... meh.

Not likely. Every time China sneezed the Spanish carried out massacres of the local Chinese population...who always managed to bounce back and outnumber the local Spanish. Though I would be favorable to Californio Ranchers importing "Christian" Converts from China and Japan in the various ports they crowded in Manila to Cambodia.
 
Not likely. Every time China sneezed the Spanish carried out massacres of the local Chinese population...who always managed to bounce back and outnumber the local Spanish. Though I would be favorable to Californio Ranchers importing "Christian" Converts from China and Japan in the various ports they crowded in Manila to Cambodia.
Actually, the Japanese can set up a client state in Luzon ruled by the Ladias or the Suleimans who both have the claim to the Kingdom of Tondo since both families did rebel in OTL with Bruneian assistance, they might get Japanese support ITTL, the Kingdom of Irraya in my TL were for times dependent upon the Japanese and the ruling house of Irraya in my TL married with the Yamato royal house of Japan.
 
More likely, the Philippines are a substitute for Korea. They're too far away for Spain to support and the garrisons too small to contest a concerted effort by Hideyoshi, if he so desired.

But why Hideyoshi would actually go for Manila instead of Korea flies in the face of both Hideyoshi's and Japanese interests.

He had been rattling his sabres at the Spanish up unto the Korea Invasion, concerns abound about a possible Spanish Invasion of Japan and anger over their missionaries. It is viewed that he was close to starting a war with Spain or would have turned on them after his Korean Veanture.

Capturing Manila does open possibilities in both preventing a Spanish attack as well as degrading their Missionary ability and out many wring their trade with China. China was of course devouring Silver at a astronomical rate and Japanese silver mines could have met Ming demands for a time. It is unlikely he knew where exactly the Spanish were getting their silver but after an invasion he could have or likely would have offered terms for the Spanish to trade through a Japanese controlled Philippines or sought to offset the Spanish by trade with the Dutch or Portuguese. Historically speaking the Ming got involved because the Japanese were invading their client state, well within the bounds of their Confucian throughts.
 
More likely, the Philippines are a substitute for Korea. They're too far away for Spain to support and the garrisons too small to contest a concerted effort by Hideyoshi, if he so desired.

But why Hideyoshi would actually go for Manila instead of Korea flies in the face of both Hideyoshi's and Japanese interests.

Yep. This is the problem--even the sanest, least grandiose post-unification Japanese government is almost certainly going to make an effort to snap up Korea. And remember, that is not the most PROBABLE post-unification Japan--just the sanest. Hideyoshi-style comments about 'Let's depose the Chinese Emperor' are pretty damn likely, because such a government is very likely to buy into the Japanese's own myths of being a supreme warrior race surrounded by weaker folk. From where they stand, they've gotten rid of the one thing holding them back, and it's time to go a conquering.
 
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I feel there is an issue with the idea that Hideyoshi's invasions were for letting out internal aggression. It was an idea that he held and developed over a decade before he unified Japan. Add that to Hideyoshi's desire to control East Asian trade as well as his sense of superiority, and an invasion of Korea becomes essentially inevitable. There's only analogy I can think of that compares to Hideyoshi staying out of China/Korea, and that's Adolf Hitler abandoning his invasions of the Soviet Union.

The only way out of the Imjin War would be for an early Hideyoshi death. After that, I don't think any of Hideyoshi's successors would be interested in invading mainland Asia.
 
Manila was under Spanish dominion at the time, I believe.

Maybe Hideyoshi asks favours with the Spanish and Portuguese for ship transports and land his excess Samurai and skilled farmers and craftsmen to check out the North American Pacific landmass and lay claim to the region after doing battle with the Native American Indians for choice lands and river water rights for farming and industry..... meh.
The Iberians will demand an insignificant little treaty port, I assume. Or two. Or three, just for good measure ... :p
 
We're missing something here.
The main and only reason Hideyoshi was not because of internal conflict; it was because of his own mad dream of taking over China. Hideyoshi's plans were grounded in because, like Belgium during WWI, Korea refused to "let the army pass" and instead fought back fiercely. While Japan did succeed in invading and pillaging Korea, that was because the army was not prepared for Korea but for China- meaning it was much more prepared and militarily equipped.
My point being, it will take an earlier POD that stops the Japanese from coming to Korea.
 

raharris1973

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What's with the fascination about a Japanese Philippines?

I am not surprised at all that this discussion diverted to talk about southward Japanese expansion to the Philippines. This isn't a complaint, it's just an observation.

I'm thinking the explanation it's just that it looks "soooo right" on a map, the Philippines just look a natural southward extension from Japan, the Ryukus and Taiwan. It's a pretty string of pearls on the map.

I don't know if anybody else has noticed this, but countless times over the last 15 years both on AH.com and SHWI, I've seen speculations on a Japanese Philippines. I have participated in the trend myself. There's one on-going now in SHWI. The majority of scenarios cluster around different timing for, or a lack of, a Spanish-American war, and either direct Japanese acquisition in the 1890s or 20th century, or Germany taking the islands and Japan getting them in an alt version of WWI. A minority, but a growing minority, of scenarios focus on a 1500s or 1600s pre-Sakoku expansion into the Philippines by Japan.

Anybody else notice this tendency? And agree that in part its caused by fascination of how it would on the map?
 
How the Philippines would develop under Japanese rule (whether it be 19th century or 16th century) fascinates me. I think it is partially due to the unique identity that exists there now and partially due to the potential that a Japanese empire had.
 

raharris1973

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Well, would Oda Nobunaga living longer prevent the Imjin War? Or was he just as committed to invading the mainland as Hideyoshi?

In other words, among possible contenders to be Shogun, how unique was Hideyoshi's mad dream?

Would it be possible for Tokugawa Ieyasu to end up in power before Hideyoshi (whether he is ever Shogun or not) gets to start the Imjin War
 
Well, would Oda Nobunaga living longer prevent the Imjin War? Or was he just as committed to invading the mainland as Hideyoshi?

Nobunaga living longer may prevent the Imjin war, but if he doesn't go to war after unification, then he has the problem of all those soldiers doing nothing and getting bored. So unless he has a good plan, he would need to send those men somewhere. Korea is the logical choice as it is nearby. Hideyoshi also claimed that he was fulfilling Nobunagas dream to conquer China when he invaded Korea. (probably absolute bollocks, but you never know).
The other invasion option is the Philippines (which seems obvious due to location), but Nobunaga was pretty close to the Jesuits so he might not want to upset them too much just yet and there are other kingdoms in the area. All with their own riches that he could set his eyes upon.

In other words, among possible contenders to be Shogun, how unique was Hideyoshi's mad dream?
It is hard to say if he dream was all that unique, but it was a time when everyone alive had been born in a state of war and chances are, whoever unites the land would hold other ambitions and wish to carry on. Hideyoshi's mad dream may not be so unique, but rather a product of the time.

Would it be possible for Tokugawa Ieyasu to end up in power before Hideyoshi (whether he is ever Shogun or not) gets to start the Imjin War
It seems unlikely as he was not very powerful during Nobunagas reign. But he was a crafty sod, so he may see the opportunity to seize power of he could. There was even a time when Ieyasu threatened to betray Nobunaga and work with the Takeda instead. That could be a POd for Ieyasu to grab power before Hideyoshi.
 
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