Herman Cain won the 2012 Republican Nomination

Well, i think that the Republican campaign might include more humor from what i seen him do on the Daily show. He is no bad actor.

Could be intresting debates between Obama and Cain. And another factor. Will this be the first time since the 60ths that the republican candidate gets the majority of the african american vote?
 
You'd get a center-right third-party candidacy -- let's call it Dick Lugar/Heath Shuler, but I'm just using those two names as placeholders for "ticket led by moderate Republican who could plausibly be President" and "VP nominee is an anti-Obama Democrat (or Independent)."

My guess is that your center-right nominee outpolls the Republicans in virtually every state, which in turn could create some very weird results like Obama winning a state like Kansas with 40% of the vote.

It would certainly be an interesting test of Obama's ceiling; my guess is that even a complete nonsense nominee like Cain would not be enough for Obama to win in Utah (where he got 34.4% of the vote in 2008), Wyoming (32.5%), Oklahoma (34%), Idaho (36%) and NE-3 (29.6%). The tipping point is probably Alaska (37.9%).

Oh, and if you think birthers are crazy (and they are), wait until you see the conspiracy theories that develops after a race like this....
 
And, the process for Cain to get the nomination might be at least as convoluted as the process was for Keyes to get the GOP nomination against Obama in 2004.

Agreed, I have a few ideas how that could happen:

Gingrich: Caught cheating on his current wife, his 4th I believe.

Romney: Make an early few remarks of Welfare Queens.

Santorum: Overheard saying racial/sexual slurs.

Bachmann: She gets pregnant.

Ron Paul:...Ron Paul

John Huntsman: May or may not be considered due to his role as Chinese Ambassador under Obama.

Rick Perry: Keep the "3 Departments" gaffes and the "Strong" ad. Maybe have his sleep disorder made public.

Boom, It's Cain vs. some possible early dropouts/late drop-ins.
 
There would be no third party run.

If some GOP moderate wants Obama to win they can just vote for the guy and not run up huge campaign debt, cause lord knows they won't get much donations.

Cain would be a huge underdog. Still, Obama has a terrible record to run on. The Conservative base would be fired up nicely.

If he could pull an upset, IT WOULD BE GLORIOUS.:D
 
Herman Cain when he first started running he was against sharia courts in the United States he did not give any reasons why he was against he was just using I'm against Muslim sharia law

I remember watching TV than a man had run over his daughter and wife because his daughter was going out with a non-Muslim and she had disgraced him he killed her and a court threw him in jail for murder for life I think if he had pointed to something like that as a reason why he is against sharia courts instead of just having this as a anti-Muslim slogan which was stupid

when he went on CNN and other news agencies if he had pulled out a paper and read down a list of people that have been killed because of sharia law in the United States that would have been something different I wonder how the news actors face would look if he had done that on CNN if nothing else that would have got him immediate media attention and if you take away the sex scandal his chances of winning the nomination are good but he still has to get his ground game going better if he can do that things would be looking bad for Newt

cain would have done better if he knew his facts and was not running for the nomination just to make money he didn't know his facts and he really wasn't running
 
I think it needs to be underlined just how awful Herman Cain's actual campaign was at times. For instance the man flip-flopped on Muslim issues at least three times.

In the span of three months.

While many politicians suffer from the 'tell the audience you are currently speaking to what they want to here' disease, Cain took it up to eleven. Speaking to people who didn't like undocumented workers? Talk about an electrified fence on the border. Talk to the 'mainstream media' the next day? Disavow it completely and claim it was a joke. Talk to the base the third day? Flip right on back to the first position.

This isn't the sign of someone who had actually thought about many real issues.

I remember the exact moment when I realized that Herman Cain was a joke candidate and unable to win a general election. It was when he was asked about the Palestinian Right of Return in a Fox News interview, and he said that sounded like a great idea. It was clear that from the context of the interview that he had no idea what the Right of Return was and what waters he was wading into. But, by golly, it sounded like a good thing just from the name. So he was for it.

This was May of 2011.

Sure, he rebounded when the base of the base were looking for the anti-Romney and they saw folksy guy touting a flat tax plan. But the man was a walking talking time-bomb. If he somehow got the nomination, he would be lucky to get 75 EVs.

I am hard pressed to decide which candidate would actually be worse, electorally speaking: Herman Cain or Michelle Bachmann. The very fact that I have to pause for a moment and wonder if Herman Cain really would actually be worse than Bachmann should say everything about the situation.
 
There was alot of criticism of Cain not taking his campaign seriously. But if he worked harder at itand not cheated on his wife. Then I can see him possibly getting the nomination. The prospect brings joy to my partisan Democratic heart. When he flubbed the question on Libya and the way he seemed so unprepared to talk about his sexual harrsment charges makes me jump for joy with the idea of him being Obama's opponent. The sexual harrasment charges would be much more of an issue in the general election campaign. The gender gap would be so much wider. In today's polorized America, I am not sure a Reagan, Nixon or Johnson size landslide is possible. I see Obama winning his 2008 states plus the close states Georgia, Missouri and Montana. With the possiblity of South Carolina, South Dakota, North Dakota, Texas and Arizona.
 
The real question is South Carolina. I understand Gingrich won the state overwhelmingly, but I am wondering how much Cain's ethnicity would play in the Deep South among conservative voters. Thoughts?
This is the same SC where they race-baited McCain in 2000. And Alan Keyes didn't do too well here in 2000 either.
 
Why is Michelle Bachmann as bad as Cain? I can see her being bad, but is there something I missed about her?

Without getting into to Chat territory, I think many 'swing voters' will have problems with politicians who openly channel Sen. McCarthy. ;)

Along those lines, and still trying to stay out of Chat territory, I think she would have... difficulty on the campaign trail when/if she decides to raise the issue of Huma Abedin or anything else that directly attacks the integrity of the US government. More generally, I look at her as being as disorganized as Newt Gingrich (her disorganization in Iowa was legendary to primary watchers). Which, admittedly, isn't as disorganized as Herman Cain, but that's a pretty low bar to clear. :D In the end, I think her culture warrior politics would turn off vast swaths of Americans.

To put it another way, she's more competent than Cain, but scarier in my mind. And I think that same scariness would be brought out on the campaign trail.

More I think I would have to leave to the Chat section. :)
 
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I feel like shouting "ASB!!!" but that seems counter-productive. :D

Cain's problem is that he makes Newt Gingrich look disciplined and a model of campaign stability.

He had practically no campaign staff when he took off. In fact, he was really on a glorified book tour when some of the GOP grassroots took a shining toward him. He would have imploded sooner or later. Either from an utter lack of planning, or some campaign misstep, or simply lack of organization. Not to mention that he had practically no platform whatsoever outside of '9-9-9'. Seeing him talk about almost anything outside of economic matters during debates was cringeworthy.

Think the freakout of the Establishment GOP when Gingrich actually looked to be within striking distance of the nomination was something to behold? It's be nothing compared to the freakout that would occur if Herman Cain was anywhere near the nomination.

Herman Cain actually getting the nomination is gonna take a lot of doing. Maybe not quite successful Sealion level of doing, but pretty darn close.

Yup. I was thinking the same thing. Like Alan Keyes, Cain had a certain base of support among the right-wing "Freeper" GOP fringe, but outside of that he would have been unpalatable to the vast majority of American voters (Democrats and Republicans, as well as both blacks and whites). If in some timeline, Cain did win the 2012 nomination, I'm thinking a huge blowout for Obama in November. Along the lines of LBJ in 64, Nixon in 72 or Reagan in 84. :D
Exactly. What they said.
 
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