Henry VIII

Henry VIII of England dies in 1520. If Mary succeeds, who does she marry? Who controls the regency? Possible Scottish influence?
 
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Which Mary Tudor are you talking about. If it's Mary Tudor the future Queen of England, she wasn't born until 1516. But if you're talking about Mary Tudor the King's sister then I believe she would still marry Charles Brandon.
 
Which Mary Tudor are you talking about. If it's Mary Tudor the future Queen of England, she wasn't born until 1516. But if you're talking about Mary Tudor the King's sister then I believe she would still marry Charles Brandon.
OOPS! I meant Henry VIII dying when his daughter Mary is still only a small child, around 1520.
 
The major candidates for control of the regency would be, in roughly declining order of likelihood:

  1. Cardinal Wolsey, Archbishop of York and Lord Chancellor of England. As of 1520, he's the most prominent figure (apart from Henry VIII himself) in the civil government of England as well as being the most prominent Church official.
  2. Charles Brandon, 1st Duke of Suffolk. He's the late King's brother-in-law, closest friend, and probably the most accomplished English military leader. He's also nominally one of the highest-ranking nobles in England, but he's newly elevated to the nobility (as of 1514) and was born a commoner.
  3. Edward Stafford, 2nd Duke of Buckingham and Lord High Constable of England. Another high noble, this one of long-standing noble rank. He's also got royal blood through three different lines (two from John of Gaunt through Beaufort lines (technically illegitimate, but accepted as sufficient for Henry VII to claim the throne), and one in legitimate line from Edward II). OTL he was executed in 1521 for planning a coup against Henry VIII.
  4. Thomas Howard, 2nd Duke of Norfolk and Lord High Treasurer and Earl Marshal of England. Another high noble, and another prominent figure in Henry VIII's early court. He's the second-most prominent civil official after Wolsey, rivals Brandon as the most prominent military leader, and has royal blood by legitimate descent from Edward I.
There's several other figures, such as Thomas More, who might be candidates to be junior members of a regency council, but who don't at this point have anywhere near the clout needed to be a candidate to lead the regency.


My best guess would be that Wolsey would lead the regency initially, but would face a serious challenge early in the regency by Buckingham. Suffolk would probably side with Wolsey, while Norfolk could go either way. If Buckingham were to take over, it's even money whether he would rule through Mary or push her aside and claim the throne for himself. If Wolsey holds on, I'd expect him to gradually lose power and influence to Suffolk and Norfolk, eventually being pushed aside by one or both of them.

As for Mary's marriage prospects, that depends on who controls the regency. Wolsey would probably arrange a French match, as he pushed for IOTL. Buckingham would probably marry Mary to a relative or client of his in order to shore up his own position (not his son Henry Stafford, who OTL married in 1519). Not sure about Suffolk or Norfolk, although a Scottish match as mentioned upthread would make a lot of sense.
 
Surely Queen Catherine is the obvious choice for regent? If so, marriage to the Emperor is a given; alternatively Edward Courtenay or Henry Lord Montague.
 
Surely Queen Catherine is the obvious choice for regent? If so, marriage to the Emperor is a given; alternatively Edward Courtenay or Henry Lord Montague.

Good point. Her influence at court was limited, but she was very popular with the people, and she's got at least as good a legal claim to the regency as Suffolk (as the next adult in the line of succession, by right of his wife) or Wolsey (as the senior member of the Privy Council). There was a belief in England at the time that a woman couldn't effectively hold the throne (based on Empress Matilda's overthrow at the hands of King Steven centuries before), but there had been a successful female regency since then (Queen Isabella for Edward III), so the prejudice might not extend to female regents.

I'd still expect Buckingham to make a play for either the regency or the throne, but there'd be a pretty good chance of Wolsey, Suffolk, and Norfolk deferring to Queen Katherine.
 
Surely Queen Catherine is the obvious choice for regent? If so, marriage to the Emperor is a given;

The problem is, would the Emperor wait for her? He didn't IOTL, as he would still want to secure his sucession. Maybe other relative?
 
The problem is, would the Emperor wait for her? He didn't IOTL, as he would still want to secure his sucession. Maybe other relative?

In this TL there's an urgency that wasn't there IOTL. Mary isn't heir-apparent, she's Queen in her own right. Every moment Charles doesn't marry her, is a moment closer to one of his enemies doing so. ITTL he can marry her immediately, gaining a whole extra kingdom's worth of resources and completely encircling France. With Henry out of the picture and Queen Catherine in charge, there's none of the OTL squabbling over dowry, marriage age, etc. On the other hand English fears over rival heirs (especially if the French start getting ideas about setting James V up as some kind of puppet) will see general support/need for Mary being immediately "married" to a suitor who can competently enforce her right and title.

That said, I can definitely see the recently-widowed Henry Courtenay (grandson of Edward IV) being championed as a suitable home-grown candidate for her hand. As of 1520 he was a Privy Councillor, high in favour, and friendly with Charles Brandon, whose low birth would discredit him with Queen Catherine, but whose wealth, influence and proximity to the throne make him a very important player in 1520 politics. As the only two adult men close to the throne, Courtenay and Brandon would do well to work in sync.
 
In this TL there's an urgency that wasn't there IOTL. Mary isn't heir-apparent, she's Queen in her own right. Every moment Charles doesn't marry her, is a moment closer to one of his enemies doing so. ITTL he can marry her immediately, gaining a whole extra kingdom's worth of resources and completely encircling France. With Henry out of the picture and Queen Catherine in charge, there's none of the OTL squabbling over dowry, marriage age, etc. On the other hand English fears over rival heirs (especially if the French start getting ideas about setting James V up as some kind of puppet) will see general support/need for Mary being immediately "married" to a suitor who can competently enforce her right and title.

Or in the other hand without Henry and with Catherine as regent England is even more secure into the Habsburg alliance than IOTL (as Henry constantly changed his policies and courted both France and the Emperor). So there is no need to rush to marry Mary, and Charles can actually use her as political tool.
Also, I doubt that Catherine would ever allow an enemy of her family to be married with her daughter. IOTL she didn't have a say in these negotiations, but ITTL who could oppose her? Wolsey, Norfolk, Buckingham, all them could have political power, but they hardly could have the strenght to force the princess into marriage against her mother's wishes.
 
On second thought, it was the practice at the time to have seperate people serve as Guardian (physical custody of the underage monarch, with responsibility for education and upbringing) and Protector (wielding royal authority and managing the affairs of state on behalf of the underage monarch). For example, during the brief reign of Edward V, his mother the dowager Queen served as Guardian while his uncle (the younger brother of the late King) served as Lord Protector.

This practice broke down following the OTL death of Henry VIII. Henry's will named Edward Seymour, Earl of Hertford (the young King's uncle on his mother's side) as Guardian and appointed a regency council of 16 members to jointly exercise the duties of Protector. Shortly after Henry's death, though, the regency council voted 13 to 3 to dissolve itself and appoint Seymour as the sole Lord Protector.

Assuming the prior practice doesn't break down ITTL, Catherine would likely be Guardian of Queen Mary, while Wolsey or Suffolk served as Protector. Alternately, if Catherine took power as Lady Protector, there would be a significant push for her to surrender custody of Queen Mary to a different Guardian.

Of course, the practice might break down ITTL as per IOTL, but if it doesn't, I'm not sure whether marriage arrangements would be in the hands of the Protector, or of the Guardian, or if they'd require the consent of both responsible parties.
 
there had been a successful female regency since then (Queen Isabella for Edward III),
Successfull? If you mean that Edward not only retained the crown in theory but actually came to power, then maybe so... but, then again, his coming to power involved imprisoning Isabella and executing her lover the Earl of March... and that regency was only needed in the first place because of Edward II's death in mysterious circumstances... :rolleyes:
 
Successfull? If you mean that Edward not only retained the crown in theory but actually came to power, then maybe so... but, then again, his coming to power involved imprisoning Isabella and executing her lover the Earl of March... and that regency was only needed in the first place because of Edward II's death in mysterious circumstances... :rolleyes:

I stand corrected.
 
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