Based on my reading through of Mantel's Wolf Hall- what would happen if Henry VIII dies in January 1536, in the jousting tournament that IOTL almost killed him? We have three candidates for the throne: the illegitimate Henry Fitzroy, Duke of Richmond, the Lady Mary (herself recently rendered illegitimate), and the infant Elizabeth Tudor. Both Fitzroy and Mary have the advantage of age, whereas Elizabeth has the power of the Boleyn family behind her. What happens?