Henry VIII dies 1512, which sister does he name his heir?

[Harriamelia]

If Henry VIII had died in late 1511 or early 1512, is it possible that he would have named his younger sister, Mary Tudor, as his heir, if he had lived long enough to write such a will? His older sister, Margaret, is Queen of Scots and the rightful heir, but later Henry would put Mary’s heirs above those of Margaret’s in the line of succession.

At this time Mary is only 15/16, unmarried (though betrothed to Charles, future Holy Roman Emperor) and childless. Whilst Margaret is married to King James IV of Scotland, childless but pregnant with her fourth child, future King James V. I do not know Henry’s motivations for placing Mary’s heir’s above Margret’s (if anyone could shed some light on this I would be most grateful), however, I always thought that though Henry wanted to unite the crowns of England and Scotland, he rather wanted England to rule Scotland than the other way around. Was this a motivation? Is it plausible that Henry would name his sister Mary as Queen?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

If Henry VIII had died in late 1511 or early 1512, is it possible that he would have named his younger sister, Mary Tudor, as his heir, if he had lived long enough to write such a will? His older sister, Margaret, is Queen of Scots and the rightful heir, but later Henry would put Mary’s heirs above those of Margaret’s in the line of succession.

At this time Mary is only 15/16, unmarried (though betrothed to Charles, future Holy Roman Emperor) and childless. Whilst Margaret is married to King James IV of Scotland, childless but pregnant with her fourth child, future King James V. I do not know Henry’s motivations for placing Mary’s heir’s above Margret’s (if anyone could shed some light on this I would be most grateful), however, I always thought that though Henry wanted to unite the crowns of England and Scotland, he rather wanted England to rule Scotland than the other way around. Was this a motivation? Is it plausible that Henry would name his sister Mary as Queen?

He liked Mary more than Margaret, and her kids weren't foreigners, were his only reasons AFAIK

 

[desmirelle]

Henry's disapproval of Margaret came from her marital history (and did not exist in 1512) - she gave birth to James IV's posthumous child in April 1514 and wed Archibald Douglas, Earl of Angus in August of the same year. Then she applied for an annulment of her second marriage based upon the preposterous claim that her first husband (James IV) might have been alive at the time of her second marriage (Katherine of Aragon had sent James' coat to Henry after Flodden in 1513), sought an annulment from Douglas in 1526, which was granted in March 1527 (while Henry was starting to look for a way out of his marriage to Katherine) - Margaret finds out in December 1527 and marries Henry Methven three months later. He thought his sister was a slut (she had a son, he was king of Scotland) while he had a "noble" reason for seeking to divest himself of a faithful and supportive wife (he wanted a son).

In 1512, I seriously doubt that Henry has a will. He's 21 years old and expects to live forever. Margaret's husband hasn't died and she doesn't have the marital history that alienated the two of them OTL. Margaret will inherit, but as I posited in another thread (Henry dying in 1514), the Parliament and council may insist on barring James IV from outright be anything other than King Consort (no power in England, like Philip a generation later).

 

[Teejay]

We get a English-Scottish union a century earlier than in OTL, there would be a joint monarchy of James IV and I and Margaret I. Similar to the one which existed in Spain with Ferdinand and Isabella. Although James would likely have no power in England itself, he would just be a King Consort. However Since there is no battle of Flodden James IV could live another 15 to 20 years. In the long run Britain is one country, however divided into different crowns, the Crown of England and the Crown of Scotland.

The butterflies are going to truly massive, for one the joint monarchy of England and Scotland would remain overwhelming Roman Catholic (with a significant Calvinist minority). The outcome of the Protestant reformation in Britain is uncertain. An British war of religion could be a possibility, like that occurred in France. Because the Calvinists (I strongly suspect they would be called Lollards) are a significant minority (concentrated in London and the South of England).

Plus there is the question of which countries the joint monarchy of England and Scotland is going to be allied to. Because Scotland was an ally of France and England a traditional enemy.

* The Lollards were a proto-protestant group which existed in the late 14th and early 15th centuries. The British Calvinists would be heirs spiritually to the Lollards.

 

[mcdnab]

At this point as has been pointed out Margaret hadn't disgraced the Tudor dynasty with her spotty marital history in Henry's mind - the two were not the closest it has to be said probably dating back to their childhood - Henry was also a bit unwilling to pass his sister jewels willed to her by their grandmother Margaret Beaufort.
Having said all that in 1512 the King's will wouldn't be binding (his will in terms of the succession was given legal validity by the later succession acts allowing him to name an heir in default of his issue) - so it will largely be up to Henry's council, parliament and the great and the good over who they want - Margaret and James will be attractive - peace with Scotland - a married woman who knew her proper place - Mary might have support from some hoping to marry her to become King in all but name perhaps - the reality is almost everyone is going to accept that Margaret is the nearest lawful heir and either way if she isn't named it will be war.

 

[The Professor]

Plus there is the question of which countries the joint monarchy of England and Scotland is going to be allied to. Because Scotland was an ally of France and England a traditional enemy.

Well, Scotland only allied to France to offset her neighbour England (and v.v). TTL that's not needed for Scotland now so depends if France or HRE is worth more.
Ireland might be easier to bring under "control", I suspect much is done to obtain papal blessing of a crown for Ireland. Indeed one might see the "Triple Kingdom" [1] of the Isles as the Church's true daughter .

[1] Multiple Kingdom? I think the Kingdom of Mann might still be extant under vassal to England here. Unless it's a Lordship again.

 

[Mike Louis]

Parliament will proclaim Margaret as Queen and James IV will gladly accept having no official power as King Consort since he can now use Margaret to help keep the always scheming Scottish nobility in line.

 

[desmirelle]

The son of Margaret and James will unite the countries, they'll have a generation to get used to the idea......Will Louis still want Mary? (Perhaps earlier?)

 

[mcdnab]

Pretty much what I think the result will be in 1512 - Parliament will frame an act explaining exactly what his position will be as consort to a Queen Regnant - imagine something similar to that drawn up for Mary I's marriage.
It will be James and Margaret, by the Grace of God, King and Queen, England, Scotland and France, Lord and Lady or Ireland etc...but the power will rest with Margaret.

Presumably James and Margaret will pull England out of conflict with France if they can get away with it without upsetting Maximilian - so Mary might still marry Louis XII eventually - though in the short term - she is the heiress presumptive to England after the boy born to James and Margaret in April 1512 (if Margaret's Queen of England by the point of that birth then i think it might be a different name).

Given James and Margaret's fertility - suspect more little royal's popping out in the late teens - Margaret's reign will almost be as long as her brother's assuming she lives as long as in otl.

Here's a sample

Margaret and James IV
James, Duke of Rothesay 1507-8
Daughter b and d 1508
Arthur Stewart, Duke of Rothesay 1509-10
James V and I b1512
Daughter (died shortly after birth November 1512
Henry Stewart, Duke of York and Ross b1514
Elizabeth Stewart b1516
son b and d 1518
Margaret Stewart b 1519
Edward Stewart Duke of Richmond and Mar b1522

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Here's a sample

Margaret and James IV
James, Duke of Rothesay 1507-8
Daughter b and d 1508
Arthur Stewart, Duke of Rothesay 1509-10
James V and I b1512
Daughter (died shortly after birth November 1512
Henry Stewart, Duke of York and Ross b1514
Elizabeth Stewart b1516
son b and d 1518
Margaret Stewart b 1519
Edward Stewart Duke of Richmond and Mar b1522

Wouldn't James IV be numbered I in England, making his son numbered as V and II? At this time other kings iure uxoris usually were numbered in their wifes' realms.

 

[mandead]

There are still a few Yorkist claimants around in 1512, such as Margaret Pole and her sons.

 

[desmirelle]

In 1512, the Duke of Buckingham was alive and kicking as well. Parliament isn't going to welcome him as king, either. Not while there are two sisters of the recently deceased king alive - there will be a delay in announcing the death of the king while the nobles come up with conditions under which Margaret can take the throne (like James stays in Scotland, although he can call himself James IV of Scotland and King James of England - although exercise of power by him in England will be limited and likely have to go through a Parliament-selected privy council when Margaret is confined for childbirth (or otherwise unavailable). If she dies before him, their son will take the throne, not James (although he'll be an ever-present regent for the boy). James IV will agree and debate the title and power available if and when Margaret predeceases him, because it's harder to dislodge him then. (This is presuming Margaret lives at least as long as she did OTL.)

 

[desmirelle]

And, in a bit of news to cheer @BlueFlowwer: Charles Brandon was made Duke of Suffolk in March 1514, so he likely will not be ennobled. But Buckingham will have to be balanced out - it's likely that Thomas Howard will be returned to his family's dukedom of Norfolk to rein in Buckingham. (I don't see it ending well if Bucky is the only Duke, he'll try something. Parliament may return the traditionally Howard dukedom as part of Margaret's ascension.)

 

[BlueFlowwer]

*happy dance* Perhaps baby James V can wed a de la Pole girl to bring everything toghether.

 

[Tyler96]

There are still a few Yorkist claimants around in 1512, such as Margaret Pole and her sons.

De la Poles too- though given Edmund and William are in prison and Richard has been on the continent for over a decade (he's floating around France at this time) I'm not sure they can do a great deal.

There's also a teenage Henry Courtenay around, with Yorkist royal blood in his veins, for whatever that's worth.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Reading this makes me feel like I walked in on a game of Kingmaker.

 

[Harriamelia]

Hey, so sorry I havent been active on this thread, but soon after I posted my internet went down (much of my area has been having spotty wifi for weeks now), its back up but weak and loading this page takes about 10 minutes, and posting this reply will pobably take up to 15. Wanted to apoligise for posting then seemingly abandoning it. Thankyou to everyone for replying and I want to discuss further, but will wait until the wifi is working again (which will probably be a few days).

 

[mcdnab]

Key claimants in 1512 would be the King's sisters, his first cousin Henry Earl of Devon and his mother's first cousin Margaret Countess of Salisbury.
Buckingham was not the senior Beaufort descendant but he was the wealthiest and most powerful (ahead of him came Lady Carey and the Countess of Northumberland)
Personally a lot depends on and in no particular order - a) Whether Henry made a view known 2) Buckingham's actions and ambition 3) The speed with which James acts on behalf of his wife.
As I said before Henry's council in 1512 still includes those who were anti-war and had served his father - so it is not unlikely that they would favour the succession of the Queen of Scots.
Buckingham was well connected amongst the aristocracy which might sway many to his cause - but his claim is relatively weak. However in 1512 his eldest son is unmarried - so a match with Mary Tudor (who is only a little older) wouldn't be out of the question - neither would marrying one of his daughters to Henry Courtenay.

 

[Mikestone8]

FWIW we know that Henry VII had been ok with the possibility of a Scottish succession.

When someone expressed concern at such a possibility he reportedly said. "This would do no harm. The greater [kingdom] will always draw the lesser" (ie England would inevitably dominate such a union).

 

[mcdnab]

Absolutely which is exactly what happened in 1603 the Stuarts rushed south and never looked back (which makes the Scots romanticism associated with the dynasty later rather laughable)