Henry VII and Henry VIII dead in 1509

John de Vere, Earl of Oxford, is Constable of the Tower, which iirc means he has the country's reserves of gunpowder under his control. Any way to guess whom he would favour?

He had no children of his own, and his title passed to his nephew, born 1499, when he died in 1513. Were he to pull a Dudley almost fifty years early, he could maneuvere his nephew into a marriage with Mary and back them for the crown over the rival groups backing Margaret or the Courtenays.

I could see the Courtenays falling into line on the promise that they were to follow Mary and her issue in the line of succession, and Mary would need a Regent, which would probably be Catherine of York and the Earl of Devon (equally could be Anne of York and the Howard's, but Anne had no children) for six years - but the Earl of Devon, like Anne of York, died in 1511.

Let's say the Regency falls to Anne and the Howard's in 1509, but Anne dies in 1511, meaning the Regency passes to Catherine whose husband dies in 1511 - Would a female Regent, not even a Queen Regnant, in her own right even be accepted?

At which point, you've got the Courtenay claim through Catherine, and the De Vere marriage plan due to control of the tower.

Mary marries John De Vere's nephew, and puts the Courtenays (her aunt and cousins) into a senior position at court, eventually making it known that her cousin, Catherine's son, is her heir unless one is born of her body.
 
He had no children of his own, and his title passed to his nephew, born 1499, when he died in 1513. Were he to pull a Dudley almost fifty years early, he could maneuvere his nephew into a marriage with Mary and back them for the crown over the rival groups backing Margaret or the Courtenays.

I could see the Courtenays falling into line on the promise that they were to follow Mary and her issue in the line of succession, and Mary would need a Regent, which would probably be Catherine of York and the Earl of Devon (equally could be Anne of York and the Howard's, but Anne had no children) for six years - but the Earl of Devon, like Anne of York, died in 1511.

Let's say the Regency falls to Anne and the Howard's in 1509, but Anne dies in 1511, meaning the Regency passes to Catherine whose husband dies in 1511 - Would a female Regent, not even a Queen Regnant, in her own right even be accepted?

At which point, you've got the Courtenay claim through Catherine, and the De Vere marriage plan due to control of the tower.

Mary marries John De Vere's nephew, and puts the Courtenays (her aunt and cousins) into a senior position at court, eventually making it known that her cousin, Catherine's son, is her heir unless one is born of her body.

Would such a thing stand for the rest of the realm, or would we see those opposed to those two families rising for Margaret?
 
I could see the Courtenays falling into line on the promise that they were to follow Mary and her issue in the line of succession, and Mary would need a Regent, which would probably be Catherine of York and the Earl of Devon (equally could be Anne of York and the Howard's, but Anne had no children) for six years - but the Earl of Devon, like Anne of York, died in 1511.


Would the Courtenays get a look in?

Oxford, after all, has been a firm Lancastrian right through the WoTR, so he's unlikely to have any truck with Yorkist claimants. If he looks at anyone beyond the daughters of Henry VII, I'd have thought it would be Buckingham.
 
Would the Courtenays get a look in?

Oxford, after all, has been a firm Lancastrian right through the WoTR, so he's unlikely to have any truck with Yorkist claimants. If he looks at anyone beyond the daughters of Henry VII, I'd have thought it would be Buckingham.

Buckingham could be a possibility, though I do think he'd look to marry his nephew off to Mary.
 
Bucky is also a brother-in-law to the 5th Earl of Northumberland, if they're close/amenable to working together they could be pretty influential.

Though I imagine Northumberland's main concern will be keeping an eye on the Scots.
 
Bucky is also a brother-in-law to the 5th Earl of Northumberland, if they're close/amenable to working together they could be pretty influential.

Though I imagine Northumberland's main concern will be keeping an eye on the Scots.

Agreed, I think Northumberland, would either want to invite the Scots down to avoid the continued border disputes, or be vehemently against it.
 
Agreed, I think Northumberland, would either want to invite the Scots down to avoid the continued border disputes, or be vehemently against it.

I'm not sure he'd be that far-sighted, TBH. There's a lot of bad blood there, and he might not be able to overcome his initial revulsion at a Scots king even if it would be beneficial in the long-term.
 
I'm not sure he'd be that far-sighted, TBH. There's a lot of bad blood there, and he might not be able to overcome his initial revulsion at a Scots king even if it would be beneficial in the long-term.

This is very true, it does seem as though James and Margaret would have to court some of the lords.
 
I repeat: James is already a KING. He will NOT settle for a "Consort" title, it would be insulting. (Which might be a reason to offer that one.) Even those who don't mind a woman ruling will understand that one. It's either James AND Margaret or it's no deal. However, if the Howards are on point again, we might have James gone in 1510 during a fight for the throne. That makes Margaret's position more perilous: her only surviving child, Arthur, died in July 1510. She hadn't had James V (born in 1512); once she's widowed and if the Scottish lords believe she's the heir to Henry VIII, she'll be lucky not to be abducted and forced into marriage with the abductor, who will have to get Scottish support from a group now jockeying for the Scottish throne and won't get far. Parliament will then use this forced marriage to oust Marge and will bicker amongst themselves about Mary, while being her regent.

Also, Margaret's not the sharpest tool in the box. She'll want to be queen for prestige, but she's already wed to a King. Unless the Aragon/Castille model can be adopted - quickly, there will be resistance to James being King of England and Scotland.
 
I repeat: James is already a KING. He will NOT settle for a "Consort" title, it would be insulting. (Which might be a reason to offer that one.) Even those who don't mind a woman ruling will understand that one. It's either James AND Margaret or it's no deal. However, if the Howards are on point again, we might have James gone in 1510 during a fight for the throne. That makes Margaret's position more perilous: her only surviving child, Arthur, died in July 1510. She hadn't had James V (born in 1512); once she's widowed and if the Scottish lords believe she's the heir to Henry VIII, she'll be lucky not to be abducted and forced into marriage with the abductor, who will have to get Scottish support from a group now jockeying for the Scottish throne and won't get far. Parliament will then use this forced marriage to oust Marge and will bicker amongst themselves about Mary, while being her regent.

Also, Margaret's not the sharpest tool in the box. She'll want to be queen for prestige, but she's already wed to a King. Unless the Aragon/Castille model can be adopted - quickly, there will be resistance to James being King of England and Scotland.
He’s still going to be King Consort only. There’s no way he will be a King Regnant.
 
Mary marries John De Vere's nephew, and puts the Courtenays (her aunt and cousins) into a senior position at court, eventually making it known that her cousin, Catherine's son, is her heir unless one is born of her body.


Might be wiser to name no heir at all. As I once heard it put, "While none is named, all may hope".

Alternatively, de Vere might be content to accept Margaret, ad just take a gamble on her not having surviving children, and have his nephew married to the heir-presumptive. With six of Henry VII's eight children already dead w/o issue, the chances wouldn't look too bad.
 
One more thing.

If Wiki has it right, Mary was currently betrothed to the future Emperor Charles V. OTL the betrothal wasn't broken off until 1513.

Doesn't that mean she can't marry anyone else until the pre-contract has been formally annulled? And how long is that likely to take?
 
One more thing.

If Wiki has it right, Mary was currently betrothed to the future Emperor Charles V. OTL the betrothal wasn't broken off until 1513.

Doesn't that mean she can't marry anyone else until the pre-contract has been formally annulled? And how long is that likely to take?
This is true? Which makes me think Charles has a show in this fight also
 
One more thing.

If Wiki has it right, Mary was currently betrothed to the future Emperor Charles V. OTL the betrothal wasn't broken off until 1513.

Doesn't that mean she can't marry anyone else until the pre-contract has been formally annulled? And how long is that likely to take?
Absolutely not... A bethrotal is much lighter than a proxy wedding and both can be ignored/annulled as a full wedding also needed consumation for being fully valid.
When Charles VIII of France married Anne of Brittany she was already married (but only for proxy) to Maximilian of Austria and he was engaged to Margaret of Austria-Burgundy (and before the engagement-treaty with Margaret, who was sent in France, he was bethroted to Elizabeth of York) so bethrotals can very well be ignored if the situation require that.
 
That is true, I suppose Ferdinand of Aragon would back the anti French candidate though.
If Scotland can win and keep England will not need anymore the French alliance and a match between his son and a princess of Burgundy/Austria/Spain like Catalina would look useful as daughter-in-law
 
If Scotland can win and keep England will not need anymore the French alliance and a match between his son and a princess of Burgundy/Austria/Spain like Catalina would look useful as daughter-in-law
Agreed, what would become of Catherine in this scenario
 
Agreed, what would become of Catherine in this scenario
Well, she would be sent back at home without any doubt (and married off at ther father's will) and young Arthur bride-to-be would be her namesake niece (two years and half older than him)... Pretty sure who butterflies can let young Arthur Stewart live, marrying infanta Catalina and rule with her on an united catholic kingdom of Scotland and England (and this Queen Katherine not marrying a close relative unlike OTL will likely have a better pregnancy pattern).

Catalina will be free because her OTL husband will marry her eldest sister (who OTL was his stepmother but here will be engaged and married to Joao before Queen Maria's death)
 
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