Henry Valois Remains King of Poland-Lithuania

In 1573, following the death of the Polish ruler Sigisimund III Augustus, a French envoy was sent to Poland to negotiate the election of Henry of Valois, future Henry III of France, on the Polish throne, in exchange for military support against Russia, diplomatic assistance in dealing with the Ottoman Empire and financial help. On 16 May 1573 Polish nobles elected Henry, as the first elected monarch of the Polish-Lithuania Commonwealth.

Most of Henry's reign was spent traveling to the country following the election. On May 30, 1574, King Charles IX of France died without an issue leaving the throne to his brother, Henry. Almost immediately he departed, sparking a constitutional crisis within Poland-Lithuania.

What if Charles IX's mental and physical health improves, preventing his untimely death? What does Poland-Lithaunia look like with Henry on the throne?
 

MSZ

Banned
Bad, propably. I don't recall any historian having written anything positive about Henry's reign in Poland. He was uninteressted in Polish affairs, and seeing that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was formed just a few years earlier, his reign would propably lead to royal power in the state being weakend even faster than OTL - as he would have no reason to keep it. Also, his poor leadership propably would lead to Poland being defeated by Ivan IV during the wars in Livonia, further weakening the state. Maybe even break the Commonwealth - the polish nobles weren't too supportive of him, while the lithuanian ones were.
 
Originally posted by MSZ
Bad, propably. I don't recall any historian having written anything positive about Henry's reign in Poland. He was uninteressted in Polish affairs, and seeing that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was formed just a few years earlier, his reign would propably lead to royal power in the state being weakend even faster than OTL - as he would have no reason to keep it. Also, his poor leadership propably would lead to Poland being defeated by Ivan IV during the wars in Livonia, further weakening the state. Maybe even break the Commonwealth - the polish nobles weren't too supportive of him, while the lithuanian ones were.
Not to mention his immoral conduct (from Polish-Lithuanian POV) didn't gain him any respect - many of the noblemen considered him effeminate and weak. So I agree, king's position would be even weaker than it was IOTL. However, I have my doubts concerning the break up of the Commonwealth. Should the Lithuanians dissolve the Commonwealth, they would be alone against rising Moscow threat, and they wouldn't want that.
 
Henry could have lived well to 1600 or even some years more if he had remained in Poland. If he had kept the throne for so long, what could be the fate of Stephen Bathory and Sigismund Vasa?
Also, if his longer reign is considered a disaster, could the Sejm in the next decide that a Habsburg wouldn't be such a bad option after all?
 

MSZ

Banned
However, I have my doubts concerning the break up of the Commonwealth. Should the Lithuanians dissolve the Commonwealth, they would be alone against rising Moscow threat, and they wouldn't want that.

It's just a thought - hence why I wrote "maybe". I don't know why he was elected in the first place, but if I recall correctly, after his escape from Poland, there was a dispute among the polish and lithuanian nobles whether too keep him as a king or depose him - the poles favoured deposition, the lithuanians keeping him. It was resolved by an ultimatum to Henry, according to which had he not returned to Poland within a year he would be deposed, otherwise he would keep the title. Henry did not anwser OTL, so he lost the polish throne, but he could have say, gone to France, get crowned, return to Poland with some Viceroy and money, bribe the nobles with priviliges and return to France with Poland in the "care" of the said Viceroy. How would the polish and lithuanians react to that - breaking the Commonwealth by deposing him as King of Poland, while letting him keep the title of Grand Duke of Lithuania would be a solution.

Besides, a million things could go wrong during the wars with Russia - I could imagine Henry loosing the war and surrendering Lithuania to Muscovy for peace.
 
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