Henry Manners, 2nd Earl of Rutland-potentially Henry IX

Henry Manners, 2nd Earl of Rutland, was a prominent nobleman during the reigns of Edward VI, Mary I and Elizabeth I. He also had royal blood through his descent from Anne of York, sister to Edward IV and Richard III. Indeed, at one point following the deaths of Edward VI in 1553, and the Earl of Devon in 1556, he was the heir presumptive, through being the senior male line descendant of Richard, 3rd Duke of York. What scenario would need to come about for him to succeed to the throne as Henry IX? Would both Mary and Elizabeth need to die by 1558? Or merely Elizabeth?
 
There was no formal line of succession in those terms - Henry VII ruled by right of conquest not inheritance so the succession followed from him as amended by the Third Act of Succession under Henry VIII. So the legal heirs were the descendants of Henry VIII, then Mary Tudor Queen of France.

Even in Plantagenet terms he was nowhere near the most senior descendant. He wasn't the senior male descendant of Richard of York either that belonged to Henry Lord Darnley (Henry - Margaret - Margaret - Elizabeth - Edward IV - Richard Duke of York) - even if you accepted Edward IV was illegitimate which is very doubtful - the senior male descendant would be Henry Hastings (Henry - Catherine - Henry - Margaret - George Duke of Clarence - Richard Duke of York)

A Yorkist succession in 1556 was
1) Descendants of Edward IV
Mary I
Elizabeth Tudor
Mary Stuart
Margaret Douglas
Henry Lord Darnley
Lord Charles Stuart
Lady Catherine Grey
Lady Mary Grey
Lady Margaret Clifford
2) Descendants of George Duke of Clarence
Catherine Pole Countess of Huntingdon (10 children)
Reginald Cardinal Pole
Sir Geoffrey Pole (11 children)
Ursula Pole Baroness Stafford (11 children)
3) Descendants of Anne of York Duchess of Exeter
Henry Manners 3rd Earl of Rutland
 
He wasn't heir-presumptive.

There were many more descendants of Henry VII around, including Mary Queen of Scots, Margaret Countess of Lennox and her two sons, Lady Catherine Grey, her sister Mary and the family of her Aunt, Eleanor Brandon.

Supposing any inclination to turn to the House of York for an heir (why would there be?) then George of Clarence had left numerous descendants, notably including Henry Hastings, Earl of Huntingdon, who was mentioned in 1562 as a possible successor to Elizabeth.
 
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He wasn't heir-presumptive.

There were many more descendants of henry VII around, including Mary Queen of Scots, Margaret Countess of Lennox and her two sons, Lady Catherine Grey, her sister Mary and the family of her Aunt, Eleanor Brandon.

Supposing any inclination to turn to the House of York for an heir (why would there be?) then George of Clarence had left numerous descendants, notably including Henry Hastings, Earl of Huntingdon, who was mentioned in 1562 as a possible successor to Elizabeth.

Ah I see, the thing I read indicated he was, my mistake.

But on that note, regarding the succession, should Mary and Elizabeth both die in 1558, would the next in line therefore be Mary Queen of Scots?
 
Ah I see, the thing I read indicated he was, my mistake.

But on that note, regarding the succession, should Mary and Elizabeth both die in 1558, would the next in line therefore be Mary Queen of Scots?

Yes Mary Queen of Scots and France would be heiress presumptive by male preference primogeniture - but in those circumstances expect chaos - the legal heir (under Henry VIII's will) is Lady Eleanor Brandon and her eldest surviving daughter Lady Catherine Grey. If Elizabeth has already become Queen then her Protestant supporters are going to opt for Queen Eleanor despite Elizabeth's dislike of her. If Mary outlives Elizabeth then I suspect her preferred option will be Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox who was next in line after Mary Stuart - an Anglo Catholic and close to Queen Mary. If Mary lives then Philip's influence is going to impact and he might prefer Lady Eleanor given her unmarried daughter might give him the best option to maintain influence religion aside than Margaret who has two sons.
 
Yes Mary Queen of Scots and France would be heiress presumptive by male preference primogeniture - but in those circumstances expect chaos - the legal heir (under Henry VIII's will) is Lady Eleanor Brandon and her eldest surviving daughter Lady Catherine Grey. If Elizabeth has already become Queen then her Protestant supporters are going to opt for Queen Eleanor despite Elizabeth's dislike of her. If Mary outlives Elizabeth then I suspect her preferred option will be Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox who was next in line after Mary Stuart - an Anglo Catholic and close to Queen Mary. If Mary lives then Philip's influence is going to impact and he might prefer Lady Eleanor given her unmarried daughter might give him the best option to maintain influence religion aside than Margaret who has two sons.

Okay interesting. So if this was the scenario : early 1558: Elizabeth dies, mid 1558: Mary I dies. WOuld it be Mary Queen of Scots who comes to the throne as Mary II, or a succession struggle?
 
Okay interesting. So if this was the scenario : early 1558: Elizabeth dies, mid 1558: Mary I dies. WOuld it be Mary Queen of Scots who comes to the throne as Mary II, or a succession struggle?

Probably the latter. MQoS would be seen as a French candidate, and iirc England was still at war with France. The Countess of Lennox is more likely.
 
So as far as I can tell, given the anti French sentiment running at this point, the claimants would be:

Mary Stuart, Queen of Scots-backed by France
Margaret Douglas, Countess of Lennox- backed by some Scots and some English

And those perhaps wanting for an English born and bred monarch: Catherine Grey
 
Mary QoS is not in a particularly good position at this point; in 1558 she is only 16, and her accession risks a personal union with France (something neither Mary nor Elizabeth is going to tolerate); Henry VIII's will had excluded the descendants of Margaret Tudor; Elizabeth changed this OTL, but here things will be different.

Margaret Douglas is the logical Catholic candidate (and was close to Mary Tudor), while Catherine Grey (the legal heir under Henry VIII's will) is the logical Protestant candidate (and close to Elizabeth until her marriage in 1560). The Habsburgs are likely to support either one (even the Protestant Catherine) against Mary Stuart's potential Anglo-French alliance (or even personal union), which is probably enough to prevent the French from successfully enforcing Mary's claim if the English oppose it.

As for legal cases behind their claims, all three have plausible arguments:
-Mary QoS is the senior heir by male-preference primogeniture
-Margaret Douglas is the senior heir born in England (a legal argument was made that only those born under English allegiance were valid heirs to the English throne; James I OTL got around this with some handwaving about medieval treaties)
-Catherine Grey is the senior heir under Henry VIII's will, as the senior descendant of his sister Mary Tudor

So it really depends on the circumstances in England (and particularly, whether it is Mary or Elizabeth that is making the decisions; Mary probably sides with Margaret, Elizabeth with Catherine).
 
Mary QoS is not in a particularly good position at this point; in 1558 she is only 16, and her accession risks a personal union with France (something neither Mary nor Elizabeth is going to tolerate); Henry VIII's will had excluded the descendants of Margaret Tudor; Elizabeth changed this OTL, but here things will be different.

Margaret Douglas is the logical Catholic candidate (and was close to Mary Tudor), while Catherine Grey (the legal heir under Henry VIII's will) is the logical Protestant candidate (and close to Elizabeth until her marriage in 1560). The Habsburgs are likely to support either one (even the Protestant Catherine) against Mary Stuart's potential Anglo-French alliance (or even personal union), which is probably enough to prevent the French from successfully enforcing Mary's claim if the English oppose it.

As for legal cases behind their claims, all three have plausible arguments:
-Mary QoS is the senior heir by male-preference primogeniture
-Margaret Douglas is the senior heir born in England (a legal argument was made that only those born under English allegiance were valid heirs to the English throne; James I OTL got around this with some handwaving about medieval treaties)
-Catherine Grey is the senior heir under Henry VIII's will, as the senior descendant of his sister Mary Tudor

So it really depends on the circumstances in England (and particularly, whether it is Mary or Elizabeth that is making the decisions; Mary probably sides with Margaret, Elizabeth with Catherine).

Okay very interesting, didn't the third succession act restor Mary I to the line of succession though, as well as sort of invalidate the ones that had previously excluded Mary QOS, or have I remembered that incorrectly?

And okay interesting, regarding the scenario, I was thinking that if Elizabeth dies first, then Mary I dies, I presume Mary would name Margaret her heir, but that this would be disputed and that it would get all kinds of messy?
 
So the likely Queens and their heirs:

Queen Margaret I, heir : Henry Stewart

Queen Catherine I, heir Lady Mary Grey

The lines would be drawn there I think, with Mary Queen of Scots looking on forlornly.
 
It will also be interesting to see the reaction of Scotland, and whether the nobles there support one of their own for Queen Regnant
 
Who might Lady Catherine Grey be married to in this instance, where she stands a reasonable chance of being Queen?
 
Okay very interesting, didn't the third succession act restor Mary I to the line of succession though, as well as sort of invalidate the ones that had previously excluded Mary QOS, or have I remembered that incorrectly?

And okay interesting, regarding the scenario, I was thinking that if Elizabeth dies first, then Mary I dies, I presume Mary would name Margaret her heir, but that this would be disputed and that it would get all kinds of messy?
No, it didn't touch the exclusion of the Stuarts; it restored his daughters Mary and Elizabeth to the Succession, but after them, it still called for the descendants of Mary, younger daughter of Henry VII to succeed over the descendants of Margaret, elder daughter of Henry VII.

Of course, that's easily avoidable if the desire exists in London (indeed, it was essentially set aside OTL during Elizabeth's reign).
 
No, it didn't touch the exclusion of the Stuarts; it restored his daughters Mary and Elizabeth to the Succession, but after them, it still called for the descendants of Mary, younger daughter of Henry VII to succeed over the descendants of Margaret, elder daughter of Henry VII.

Of course, that's easily avoidable if the desire exists in London (indeed, it was essentially set aside OTL during Elizabeth's reign).

Ah very true. So that's something. I suppose it would be a case of who Mary I chooses to succeed her, versus what some of the other nobles want. I guess Protestants who had been hiding in the woodwork might come out in support of Catherine?
 
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