I have questions about the outcomes for three Houses in the aftermath of a victory for Percy in the Battle of Shrewsbury:

Percy: This House rebelled against Henry IV for a laundry list of grievances, among them land promised to them in Cumberland being given to a rival (House Neville?) and refusing Percy custody of Scottish nobles captured at Homildon Hill, thereby preventing Percy the benefit of ransoming them. Does victory at Shrewsbury gain Percy their objectives, or are there more battles for them to fight?

Lancaster: The King is dead, and the Prince of Wales is either dead or a captive of Percy. Who can they put forth as the new King of England? Which Houses that supported them are likely to abandon them in the aftermath of defeat at Shrewsbury? What kind of ransom would they be willing to pay to get back the Prince of Wales and would it be strictly monetary or would it include the transfer of land titles?

Neville: Rivals of the Percy. I couldn't find any mention of their participation at the battle so either they couldn't make it in time to participate or they sat out the entire Percy rebellion. If the rebellion ends in decisive victory for Percy, how are they likely to suffer in peace negotiations? In addition to holdings in and around Cumberland, what else might they lose to Percy?
 
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I don't know for sure, partly because I'm not aware of Hotspur ever really articulating an end goal, but I expect he would place Edmund Mortimer, 5th Earl of March on the throne and probably take some of the lands of Henry IV's supporters for himself and allies.

Hotspur and the Percy's have no claim to the throne themselves and were friends and allies with the Mortimers (Henry IV's refusal to ransom Sir Edmund Mortimer, uncle of the Earl of March, was a big factor in them turning against him). The Earl of March also had a strong claim the throne, arguably better than Henry IV by arguments of bloodline and law, having been Richard II's heir presumptive.
 
AIUI, Percy rebelled in alliance with the Welsh prince Glyndwyr and Sir Edmund Mortimer (who had been captured by Glydwyr and then married Glyndwyr's daughter). Sir Edmund was the uncle of Edmund Mortimer, 5th Earl of March (b. 1391), who had been heir presumptive to Richard II; Sir Edmund claimed the crown for his nephew, even though the Earl was in royal custody. (OTL, the Earl was raised in company with the future Henry V ( b. 1386), and despite his own, theoretically superior claim to the crown, was Henry's friend and completely loyal vassal until they both died in the 1420s.)

If the rebels win at Shrewsbury, as postulated, the next Lancastrian heir is Henry IV's eldest surviving son, Thomas (b. 1387), who wold be too young to lead the faction. However, Henry IV had three younger half-brothers, the Beauforts, who were powerful figures: John, Earl of Somerset (b. 1373), Henry Beaufort (b. 1375), Bishop of Lincoln and Lord Chancellor, and Thomas (b. 1377). Also a half-sister, Joan (b. 1379), who was married to Ralph Neville, Earl of Westmorland, one of the King's most trusted counsellors.

I would expect Somerset, Lincoln, and Westmorland to rally the remaining Lancastrian forces behind Thomas. The rebels would have "momentum", but the Lancastrians would probably have custody of the young Earl of March. OTL, the rebels broke him out briefly in 1405. In the wake of victory at Shrewsbury, they might well achieve this.

If they don't - the Lancastrians can threaten to execute the Earl (and his younger brother Roger). But then the Mortimer claim passes to their sister Anne (b. 1388) or more likely to Sir Edmund. It gets awkward - the Mortimer claim is through a female line (Philippa, daughter of Lionel of Antwerp, second son of Edward III), but at this time, no one is going to accept a 15-year-old Queen Regnant.
 
The Lancastrians would likely name Thomas the King with one of his Beaufort uncles serving as his Regent. The percies do have some Lancastrian blood but not enough to make a decent claim to the throne. As such, they’d likely back the Mortimers like otl.
 
If Percy forces manage to achieve victory and put Edmund Mortimer, 5th Earl of March on the throne, what allies do the Mortimers have at that point besides the Percys? What marriage best secures Edmund's position? Would marriage to a Lancaster placate them for a time? As for a captive Prince of Wales, does he remain a lifetime captive of the Mortimers because he's too much of a danger to become a rallying point for a Lancaster uprising?
 
AIUI, Percy rebelled in alliance with the Welsh prince Glyndwyr and Sir Edmund Mortimer (who had been captured by Glydwyr and then married Glyndwyr's daughter). Sir Edmund was the uncle of Edmund Mortimer, 5th Earl of March (b. 1391), who had been heir presumptive to Richard II; Sir Edmund claimed the crown for his nephew, even though the Earl was in royal custody. (OTL, the Earl was raised in company with the future Henry V ( b. 1386), and despite his own, theoretically superior claim to the crown, was Henry's friend and completely loyal vassal until they both died in the 1420s.)

If the rebels win at Shrewsbury, as postulated, the next Lancastrian heir is Henry IV's eldest surviving son, Thomas (b. 1387), who wold be too young to lead the faction. However, Henry IV had three younger half-brothers, the Beauforts, who were powerful figures: John, Earl of Somerset (b. 1373), Henry Beaufort (b. 1375), Bishop of Lincoln and Lord Chancellor, and Thomas (b. 1377). Also a half-sister, Joan (b. 1379), who was married to Ralph Neville, Earl of Westmorland, one of the King's most trusted counsellors.

I would expect Somerset, Lincoln, and Westmorland to rally the remaining Lancastrian forces behind Thomas. The rebels would have "momentum", but the Lancastrians would probably have custody of the young Earl of March. OTL, the rebels broke him out briefly in 1405. In the wake of victory at Shrewsbury, they might well achieve this.

If they don't - the Lancastrians can threaten to execute the Earl (and his younger brother Roger). But then the Mortimer claim passes to their sister Anne (b. 1388) or more likely to Sir Edmund. It gets awkward - the Mortimer claim is through a female line (Philippa, daughter of Lionel of Antwerp, second son of Edward III), but at this time, no one is going to accept a 15-year-old Queen Regnant.
I honestly doubt that the Lancasters would fight on with their king dead and his heir either dead or captive. Henry IV had alienated many of the supporters who put him on the throne, like the Percys, and the Percys were original Kings in the North, long before Game of Thrones was a thing. They dominate the north of England already and have incredible resources in their own right. If they win hard enough to kill Henry IV and capture Prince Hal then they've just smashed the royal army and the Beauforts aren't going to be able to rally an army against them. As the Percy grudge was chiefly against Henry IV personally for his mistreatment of them, I doubt they would try to purge the remaining Lancastrians either, thus not giving the Beauforts a reason to want to fight on. Henry IV's sons would probably be jailed like the Earl of March but the Beauforts would probably retain their estates and such if they didn't actively resist.
If Percy forces manage to achieve victory and put Edmund Mortimer, 5th Earl of March on the throne, what allies do the Mortimers have at that point besides the Percys? What marriage best secures Edmund's position? Would marriage to a Lancaster placate them for a time? As for a captive Prince of Wales, does he remain a lifetime captive of the Mortimers because he's too much of a danger to become a rallying point for a Lancaster uprising?
The Percys are probably enough to keep the throne, especially if they don't start further antagonising other nobles. Henry Hotspur was one of England's foremost military commanders, his father (also Henry) was 1st Duke of Northumberland and King of Mann, Constable of England, Warden of Scottish Marches and formerly Marshal of England and Admiral of the Northern Seas and, as noted above, was effectively King in the North. Hotspur's uncle was Thomas Percy, 1st Earl of Worcester and Admiral of the Kings Fleet in Ireland, and formerly Admiral of the North and Richard II's Seneschal. They were also allies with the Archbishop of York, Richard le Scrope, who had enough influence to raise his own in rebellion against Henry IV in 1405 IOTL, as well as several important Scottish nobles including Archibald Douglas, 4th Earl of Douglas, who fought alongside Hotspur at Shrewsbury. No doubt they also had numerous more minor nobles among their allies, especially in the north, whose names are less readily available to a quick search. To put it another way, the Percys are an incredibly powerful faction in England and lost IOTL because of bad luck. Their army at Shrewsbury was already superior to the royal army and they have the ability to raise even more soldiers if they need. This could lead to the power in England turning to the north, at least for a generation or two, actually.

On the topic of marriages tho, Edmund Mortimer could be married to Blanche of Lancaster, Henry IV's eldest daughter born in 1392 (1 year after Edmund), if a reconciliation marriage policy is needed.
 
The Percys are probably enough to keep the throne, especially if they don't start further antagonising other nobles. Henry Hotspur was one of England's foremost military commanders, his father (also Henry) was 1st Duke of Northumberland and King of Mann, Constable of England, Warden of Scottish Marches and formerly Marshal of England and Admiral of the Northern Seas and, as noted above, was effectively King in the North.
So if the Percys get major holdings in Cumberland, which I believe was one of the points of grievance for their rebellion, then they basically have a contiguous 'kingdom within a kingdom' stretching from Newcastle-on-Tyne to Carlisle? Were there allies of Henry IV north of the Humber who might lose holdings to House Percy in a peace agreement? Were the Nevilles allies of Henry IV or were they neutral bystanders during the rebellion?

I saw a video about the Battle of Shrewsbury that stated that Owain Glyndwr in Wales was sending an army to link up with Hotspur but couldn't make it in time. Was the video correct about Glyndwr being an active participant? If Edmund Mortimer recognizes Welsh independence, did Glyndwr have cordial enough relations with the Percys to be considered one of their allies post-rebellion?
 
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I honestly doubt that the Lancasters would fight on with their king dead and his heir either dead or captive. Henry IV had alienated many of the supporters who put him on the throne, like the Percys, and the Percys were original Kings in the North, long before Game of Thrones was a thing. They dominate the north of England already and have incredible resources in their own right. If they win hard enough to kill Henry IV and capture Prince Hal then they've just smashed the royal army and the Beauforts aren't going to be able to rally an army against them. As the Percy grudge was chiefly against Henry IV personally for his mistreatment of them, I doubt they would try to purge the remaining Lancastrians either, thus not giving the Beauforts a reason to want to fight on. Henry IV's sons would probably be jailed like the Earl of March but the Beauforts would probably retain their estates and such if they didn't actively resist.
Where are they located, physically? Can they exit England before they get caught?
 
So if the Percys get major holdings in Cumberland, which I believe was one of the points of grievance for their rebellion, then they basically have a contiguous 'kingdom within a kingdom' stretching from Newcastle-on-Tyne to Carlisle? Were there allies of Henry IV north of the Humber who might lose holdings to House Percy in a peace agreement? Were the Nevilles allies of Henry IV or were they neutral bystanders during the rebellion?

I saw a video about the Battle of Shrewsbury that stated that Owain Glyndwr in Wales was sending an army to link up with Hotspur but couldn't make it in time. Was the video correct about Glyndwr being an active participant? If Edmund Mortimer recognizes Welsh independence, did Glyndwr have cordial enough relations with the Percys to be considered one of their allies post-rebellion?
I don't know the noble holdings in England to that level of detail, unfortunately. The Nevilles were not overtly allied to Henry IV when it came to the Battle of Shrewsbury but would probably have supported him as loyal vassals of the King. I can't imagine they would lose territory or anything like that. Any Percy gains would be probably be from small nobles captured in the battle as stripping titles wantonly would be deeply unpopular.

This claim appears fairly often, IIRC from writing my Owain Glyndwr TL some years ago (see my signature), as does the claim that Hotspur and Glyndwr had made an alliance before Hotspur raised his standard in rebellion. I'm a bit skeptical of this tho. Glyndwr's rebellion didn't really have substantial armies, they operated more like highly effective guerrillas (their successes were against woefully poorly garrisoned castles, 'civilian' mobs like in Pembrokeshire and went they took advantage of local weather and terrain as when they captured Sir Edmund Mortimer at the Battle of Bryn Glas), except when a French army arrived in 1405. In 1403, Glyndwr lacked that force and those he did have were campaigning in south Wales. So, no, I doubt he was an active participant other than being also engaged in fighting Henry IV.

Your other question about him being an ally post-Shrewsbury is interesting. If Welsh independence was recognised by a newly proclaimed Edmund I, then yes, Glyndwr would be an ally. We know from OTL that the Percy's and Glyndwr could be allies against a common foe and could work together, even to partition England. But if Hotspur wins then there's an argument that the rebellion would end with a negotiated settlement. The Percys and Mortimers, especially Hotspur and Sir Edmund, had much greater respect for the Welsh than Henry IV had and I could see a Mortimer-Percy England going back to Richard II's policy of conciliation with the Welsh. Welsh nobles were keen supporters of Richard II and the Welsh heritage archers of Cheshire were core parts of his army, as they were for Hotspur at Shrewsbury, which may well be by Henry IV treated them so badly.
 
The Beauforts? I mean, yeah, there's not much to stop that, it wasn't hard in the medieval period. It doesn't seem likely that they would, tho, unless the Percys start trying to kill them.
In 1485, King Richard III fell at Bosworth on 22nd of August. Henry marched into London on 3rd of September, 12 days later. Edward Earl of Warwick was 10 years old. Henry kept Edward in Tower, and executed him 14 years later.
Did any Yorkists successfully exit England in August-September 1485?
 
In 1485, King Richard III fell at Bosworth on 22nd of August. Henry marched into London on 3rd of September, 12 days later. Edward Earl of Warwick was 10 years old. Henry kept Edward in Tower, and executed him 14 years later.
Did any Yorkists successfully exit England in August-September 1485?
Edward, Earl of Warwick, was ten, I don't thi k he could have fled himself. But I was more thinking about Edward IV fleeing to Flanders in the Wars of the Roses or indeed Henry Tudor himself. I don't know about the specific timeframe you're asking about this, I'm afraid.
 
What is the role of Parliament in all of this? Does it take part in peace negotiations? Does membership in the House of Lords change, with some members from the losing side being replaced by those from the victorious faction?
 
What is the role of Parliament in all of this? Does it take part in peace negotiations?
Not directly. It is not sitting. It can be called... by the winner.
Does membership in the House of Lords change, with some members from the losing side being replaced by those from the victorious faction?
Consider the OTL precedents:
1326-1327: Isabella landed at Harwich 24 IX, Parliament not sitting (last sat in 1325). King was in London - fled London 2 X. In late October, King was trying to leave Great Britain by sea, unsuccessfully. Earl of Winchester captured 26 X, executed in cold blood on 27 X. Earl of Arundel captured alive, executed in cold blood 17 XI. Baron Despenser captured alive 16 XI, executed 24 XI. King captured alive in Wales 16 XI. Parliament summoned on 28 X to meet on 14 XII 1326, on 3 XII the meeting put off to 7 I 1327. Only 26 of the 46 barons who had been summoned in October 1326 for the December parliament were then also summoned to that of January 1327, and six of those had never received summonses under Edward II at all. Besides the obvious 3 lords executed. There were fewer lords present than were traditionally summoned, which increased the influence of the Commons. This may have been a deliberate strategy on behalf of Isabella and Mortimer, who, suggests Dodd, would have known well that in the occasionally tumultuous parliaments of earlier reigns, "the trouble that had been caused in parliament had emanated almost exclusively from the barons". The Archbishop of York, who had been summoned to the December parliament, was "conspicuous by his absence" from the January sitting. Some Welsh MPs also received summonses, but these had deliberately been despatched too late for those elected to attend. The January–February parliament was geographically broader too, as it contained unelected members from Bury St Edmunds and St Albans: says Maddicott, "those who planned the deposition reached out in parliament to those who had no right to be there".
1399: Bolingbroke landed in Ravenspurn in late June. King was away in Ireland. King landed in Wales 24 VII, captured in Wales 19 VIII. Parliament summoned 19 VIII, met 30 IX.
1403: No Parliament sitting (last dissolved November 1402, OTL next called in October 1403, met January 1404)
1461: Parliament sitting since October 1460, apparently dissolved forcibly by Yorkist army in March 1461. First Yorkist parliament summoned 23 V 1461, met 4 XI 1461

The meeting of 1327 Parliament included both a large scale purge (at least 3 lords executed in cold blood, Archbishop of York kept his life and post but conspicuously absent from 1327 Parliament, a total of 20 out of 46 lords gone) and packing (6 completely new lords, plus a bunch of new Commons seats). 146i included forcible dispersal of sitting Parliament. Can anyone comment on the 1399 Parliament - who were removed from Parliament, who were added? And what would a 1403 Parliament of Shrewsbury winners have been like?
 
What is the role of Parliament in all of this? Does it take part in peace negotiations? Does membership in the House of Lords change, with some members from the losing side being replaced by those from the victorious faction?
The membership of the House of Lords was the nobles of the realm. Indeed, to officially be a lord of the kingdom or to officially have a new title you had to be summoned to parliament by that title. So there won't be a deliberate change to the House of Lords like swapping one politician for another, it will be a side-effect of any title changes that happen.
 
The membership of the House of Lords was the nobles of the realm. Indeed, to officially be a lord of the kingdom or to officially have a new title you had to be summoned to parliament by that title. So there won't be a deliberate change to the House of Lords like swapping one politician for another, it will be a side-effect of any title changes that happen.
Archbishop of York kept his life and post as Archbishop in 1326 - he lost just his appointed position as Treasurer. His conspicuous absence from January 1327 Parliament was deliberate... on whose side?
 
Henry V becomes king early if he's not dead. Thomas becomes king if Monmouth is dead. Henry IV, though he had a steep learning curve upon taking the throne in 1399, had ensured that Lancastrians were in every major position of power by 1403. There's no way anyone else ends up on the throne besides one of his sons.


Sir Edmund claimed the crown for his nephew
Edmund claimed the throne for himself, not his nephew. It's one of the more laughable parts of the already ridiculous Tripartite Indenture.
 
There are MANY ways this can go. Regardless of the involvement of other entities, Parliament, the Church etc, the three main parties Mortimer, Percy and Glyndwr all going to want the spoils of victory. Presumably everyone understands the Welsh are not in this to continue to be under Plantagenet control surely? Any attempt to impose the Earl of March as Edmund III on the Welsh just because, when they have a viable, native alternative who has proven their will and ability to resist English rule. Any attempt to just blithely assume power like nothing had happened will inevitably be resisted by the Welsh to the utmost. He can try, but Edmund III is in some ways a default king coming after another default king (Henry IV) and will have to secure legitimacy across England and secure the North and Ireland as well.

I suspect this situation and the March-Glyndwr-Percy alliance degenerates relatively quickly due to naturally conflicting visions and goals which could be papered over during a rebellion but not during the peace afterwards. There is also the tendency of Triads to crumble after a relatively short length of time historically as petty jealousy and conflicting styles and agendas play out, often alongside the loss of life and the distinct regional differences between the different parts of England, Wales and Ireland don't really get ironed out or at least managed through thinks like standardised English, administration and railway time driven by the centralisation and regularisation that starts happening in the Industrial era.

I wouldn't count out a three-way fight between Edmund III, Percy and Glyndwr with the 2 weakest ganging up against one for mutual survival, especially if say Percy can marry his daughter Elizabeth who I think is still available to one of the two men's heir or favourite. It's not insane to imagine a war-ravaged England and these three guys fighting each other to stalemate over the spoils and then Parliament growing a pair as everyone is just sick of the carnage and decides to force the three sides into cutting a deal in 10 or 20 years. The eventual treaty probably means tolerating losing Wales to Glyndwr plus possibly some border areas say following the Teme River in Shropshire and Wye in Herefordshire as a Welsh buffer-zone, Edmund III getting southern England (Peak District south), Ireland and the claims to France which are likely still inherited by the Yorkists if he does without heirs and Hotspur and his heirs gets everything from the Humber to Berwick in the east and from around Crewe to Gretna in the west undoing the work of every English king since Aethlestan to boot.

No one really wins here: England is weakened severely, will find it more challenging to access it's holdings in Ireland and it's growth into european power in the 16th century sidetracked in its 15th century infancy whilst being saddled with a claim to France and this involvement in continental politics it can't do anything about. I would expect that English control of Calais and it's surrounding territory much more quickly, again weakening the hand of England long-term and potentially changing French and Breton politics and Flanders trade politics in ways that are difficult to quantify given the activities of the House of Valois-Burgandy in Burgandy, the kingdom that never quite was at this time. It's possible that Parliament asserts itself more in this tl, with implications for future relations with future Monarchs, but it's also possible that it breaks under the strain, especially if Burghers and Peers from Wales and the northern counties leave to form a Senedd at Caernarfon say and a Northumbrian Parliament in York. The Tudors being removed from power is a given, so no break with Rome over Anne Boleyn, no Bloody Mary, no Gloriana, so no Spanish Armada, at least not in the same way and for the same reasons and no disaster that is the Stuarts inheriting England with the dumpster fire that is British and Irish politics in the 17th century. To suggest that Oliver Cromwell remains a country squire, the Glorious Revolution and the Plantation of Ulster probably don't happen is a given, with absolutely MASSIVE consequences all around for the development of democracy, the British view of republicanism and civil war and the Troubles don't blight Northern Ireland for decades in the second half of the 20th century. I wonder though if Yorkist successors plant defeated Lancastrian supporters and other less than desirable types in Southern Ireland, say around Waterford or Wexford, the parts they can more easily access, so I wonder whether we get some form of upside down Troubles after-all - what a horrifying thought! I suspect Ireland probably generates its own Glyndwr too and goes down a similar path to Wales in this scenario eventually, perhaps the chief of the O'Neills in Tyrone or the chief of the Fitzgeralds of Kildare or someone else with much to gain or loose emerging as a new High King of Ireland.

Wales is difficult to govern due to geographical and structural reasons and needs substantial reform and nation-building to ensure a unified state able to resist Edmund's descendents and so may just disintegrate and get gobbled up by England again in time. Whatever the case the concept of Welsh nationhood is likely far more thoroughly embedded, perhaps becoming a western european, Reformed equivalent to Poland -occupied some of the time, not others, resisting it closest, more powerful neighbour all the while, undaunted.

And Northumbria has the Scots to deal with on top of establishing itself as a state and legitimising Percy authority over the entire domain, which is easier said than done, as is creating a shared identity out of what is likely to be quite a religiously diverse state going forward, possibly far more Catholic than it's neighbours for far longer and closely aligned with France, containing England to these islands which slows the development of the Royal Navy and the colonisation of North America quite a bit. Who would go? Would people go at all? Just from perspective of embedding Percy power, it's possible that Percy cuts a deal with the Beauforts, of the "recognise Northumbria and I support you to get southern England, Ireland and what's left in France" variety and we get a Wars of the Roses same but different with a younger Percy playing a decisive role as the deciding general in a rebel army under Lady Margaret's dad John, 1st Duke or uncle Edmund, 2nd Duke of Somerset...

How that affects relationships within the Isles or the Reformation is hard to say, but one can assume it will lead to the Welsh language surviving as a significant presence alone and it will absolutely pour fuel on the fire of Anglo-French disputes and Low Countries politics, just the English can't actually do anything about it...
 
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