I was poking around Dave Leip's Election Atlas and I never realized how close the 1844 election was. James Polk defeated Henry Clay by only 39,000 votes and only 5,000 votes in New York, the state that ultimately decided the election. So let's take as our POD that the Liberty Party (a short-lived splinter group of anti-slavery Whigs) nominates someone less popular or falls apart due to infighting earlier than OTL. In OTL, Liberty Party candidate James Birney got 67,000 votes nationwide and 15,000 in New York, most of which presumably would have gone to Clay. ITTL, Clay narrowly wins the popular vote and (by virtue of taking New York) the electoral college.
So how does Clay's Presidency differ from Polk's? Obvious effect is no annexation of Texas (yet) and thus no Mexican War. On the Oregon issue, I know Clay was generally less aggressive and militaristic than Polk and felt Polk's "Fifty-Four Forty or Fight" rhetoric was unnecessarily provocative, but I don't know the precise details of his position.
On domestic policy, I assume we would see a full implementation of the American System: higher tariffs, more infrastructure investment, and a Third National Bank along the same lines as the second one. Of course, that's all predicated on his ability to work with a Democratic-controlled House. I'm really not sure who would control the Senate ITTL. IOTL it was Democrats 26-24, but if Clay does better maybe he could drag in a couple extra Whigs on his coattails?
Do you think Clay would run for re-election in 1848 (he would have been 71) and if so would he win? What would a second term look like? Keep in mind that in OTL, Clay died in June 1852. Given the stress of the Presidency, we could end up seeing a President Frelinghuysen by 1850 or so (my sympathies to this TL's grade school children). Thoughts?
So how does Clay's Presidency differ from Polk's? Obvious effect is no annexation of Texas (yet) and thus no Mexican War. On the Oregon issue, I know Clay was generally less aggressive and militaristic than Polk and felt Polk's "Fifty-Four Forty or Fight" rhetoric was unnecessarily provocative, but I don't know the precise details of his position.
On domestic policy, I assume we would see a full implementation of the American System: higher tariffs, more infrastructure investment, and a Third National Bank along the same lines as the second one. Of course, that's all predicated on his ability to work with a Democratic-controlled House. I'm really not sure who would control the Senate ITTL. IOTL it was Democrats 26-24, but if Clay does better maybe he could drag in a couple extra Whigs on his coattails?
Do you think Clay would run for re-election in 1848 (he would have been 71) and if so would he win? What would a second term look like? Keep in mind that in OTL, Clay died in June 1852. Given the stress of the Presidency, we could end up seeing a President Frelinghuysen by 1850 or so (my sympathies to this TL's grade school children). Thoughts?