Help with Timeline - Russia goes Liberal (POD: 1881)

[Justin Pickard]

I am currently working on a timeline where Tsar Alexander II survives an anarchist attempt on his life in March 1881, living instead until his eventual assasination (by the same people) in 1887. His survival ensures the creation of 'Gosudarstvenny Soviet' under the advice of Count Loris-Melikof, Russian Minister for the Interior. The Soviet is a national body elected (initially) by members the Russian zhemstvo (roughly equivalent to parish councils). The body is tasked with advising the Tsar on matters of legislation and reform. Whilst not quite a parliament, it is a step in the right direction - earning him popular support from middle-class liberal types.

First elections are held in Oct 1881. Soviet inaugerated in Feb 1882.
In June 1882 the Soviet proposes the creation of a Russian constitution. Alexander II remains sceptical but makes the concession of an extention of the voting franchise to landowners for the Soviet elections
Second elections are held in Oct 1885.

Upon Alexander II's death in June 1887, his son Alexander III suceeds him as Tsar. Much like in OTL, Alexander III reacts against the revolutionaries who killed his father. He strengthens the 'Okhrana' (military/secret police), enacts censorship, bans overtly revoluionary political organisations etc. After an attempt on his life in September 1887 (blamed on Polish nationalists), he starts a process of 'Russification' in areas where ethnic nationalism is rife. This includes a persecution of all non-Orthodox religious minorities.

After a further assassination attempt in early November, Alexander III bans all remaining political organisations and dissolves the Gosudarstvenny Soviet. This move meets with massive public opposition, especially with the upper and the middle classes who see the move as ‘a step backward for Mother Russia’.

In late November, strikes and rioting start to spread across the country as discontent grows. Alexander III attempts to use the military to bring resistance under control. However, this merely exacerbates the situation, triggering simultaneous nationalist uprisings in Poland, Finland, Byelorussia and the Ukraine, and plunging the nation into a Civil War. The Civil War is fought between the Tsarists who wanted to retain an absolute monarch and keep the provinces under control, and the Constitutionalists, who wanted the Tsar to act as a constitutional monarch, subordinate to the legislative body of a democratic Constitution, and were willing to allow Ethnic groups greater autonomy.

In early 1888 Tsar Alexander III is killed when a bomb goes off in a Constitutionalist raid on the Winter Palace, and his wife and children seek exile in Switzerland. The revolutionaries install the forty year old Grand Duke Vladimir Alexandrovich as Tsar Vladimir I, and set about drafting a Russian Constitution. End of Russian Civil War.

In late April, Russia officially recognises the independence of Congress Poland and Finland. However, Russian troops remain in both states until June, when order is officially restored. Byelorussia and the Ukraine are granted limited regional parliaments, as are the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.


I would greatly welcome your feedback/suggestions. Answers to the following questions would also be welcomed....
1) Any suggestions as to a realistic leader for the Constitutionalist forces?
2) What would the Soviet have tried to do in the years between its inaugeration and Alexander II's death?
3) What course could the civil war have taken in terms of battles etc. - can I shove some famines and suchlike in to compound the discontent?
4) Is Tsar Vladimir I a suitable liberal puppet monarch? Can anyone provide me with some more information about him or more suitable candidates?
5) How plausable is this turn of events?
6) What happens next (I'm thinking Communist Germany, Different WW1)?

 

[Peter]

In late April, Russia officially recognises the independence of Congress Poland and Finland. However, Russian troops remain in both states until June, when order is officially restored. Byelorussia and the Ukraine are granted limited regional parliaments, as are the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Giving Finland indenpendence is unplausible, the Germans may help the Poles, but who will help the Finns?

 

[Justin Pickard]

I was thinking that the Constitutionalists would grant the Finns some kind of independence as part of the outcome of the civil war...? Implausable?

 

[Justin Pickard]

Hello? Anyone?

 

[Hierophant]

Kind of unrelated but Lenin had a older brother Alexander Ulyanov who had participated in one of the failed attempts on the Czars life. OTL he was captured and executed(one reason Lenin went down his path). Perhaps Alex could lead the reds in your Tl?

 

[Justin Pickard]

He would have been 21 - how does that compare to other people in leadership positions through history?

 

[Hierophant]

The radical left in Russia was young compared to the west. I dont se why he couldnt have played at least a junior position and succeded later.

Also lokk at Castro and the leader of libya(fordget name) He gained power at 28 I think.

 

[RatCatcher]

Its interesting, but I dont beleive in a possibillity of any kind of Civil war in Russia in the late XIX century.
Men, Constitutionals are nothing! They do not have army, thay do not have Guards, they do not have police. All this structures obey to Tzar. Remember real firs Russian revolution in 1905.
So, this timeline is absolutely unreal.
And talking about terrorost-revolutioners. In reality their organisation Narodnaya Volya (People Freedom) were almost collapsed in 1881 - police captured most of them. If Alexander II survived, this guys would be all captured.

 

[Xen]

Its interesting, but I dont beleive in a possibillity of any kind of Civil war in Russia in the late XIX century.
Men, Constitutionals are nothing! They do not have army, thay do not have Guards, they do not have police. All this structures obey to Tzar. Remember real firs Russian revolution in 1905.
So, this timeline is absolutely unreal.
And talking about terrorost-revolutioners. In reality their organisation Narodnaya Volya (People Freedom) were almost collapsed in 1881 - police captured most of them. If Alexander II survived, this guys would be all captured.

Red Catcher do you like bannana's

You know its posts like this that make me sick to my stomach. How rude can people get? Instead of seeing things wrong with a timeline and making suggestions on how to improve them we have a critic who apparently has a magic ability to look into the past and know with 100% accuracy what will happen and what wont happen.

You want to know what is absolutely unreal, and completely implausible? An assassin trying to kill an American President at close range fires with his pistol only to have it misfire, then pulls out another pistol only to have it misfire too. Now thats not likely to happen at all......wait a minute that did happen

Besides where are your great flawless timelines? I dont recall seeing any. Dont go around calling someones timeline implausible until you come up with one that is completely flawless. I will be watching, and I will ride your ass for everything that seems the slightest bit implausible.

How do you like them bannana's?

 

[RatCatcher]

Xen, first of all I do not understand American jokes about banannas
Second, please tell me is there possible a Second Civil war in the USA in, let say, 1950-s? Something like, afroamericans decided to fight against evil white oppressors. President is in exile and Consitutionalists appoint a new one. Do you beleive it? I don't.
Situation in Russia in those time is the same. There simply was no power, which could begin Civil War.
Guys, create alternatives, but please, learn history more patiently.

 

[Xen]

Xen, first of all I do not understand American jokes about banannas
Second, please tell me is there possible a Second Civil war in the USA in, let say, 1950-s? Something like, afroamericans decided to fight against evil white oppressors. President is in exile and Consitutionalists appoint a new one. Do you beleive it? I don't.
Situation in Russia in those time is the same. There simply was no power, which could begin Civil War.
Guys, create alternatives, but please, learn history more patiently.

On the contrary a Civil War in the USA during the 1950's isn't as remote as you may think. If its a POD based in the 1950's it would most likely be classified as a rebellion by historians, but in fact would be a Civil War. Unless it can get popular support from the USSR it will likely fail and could push the world to WWIII.

So a second American Civil War isnt implausible in the 1950's, its not likely it will succeed and would ultimatley hurt the afro-american cause more than advance it. The conditions were certainly right.

Now the President in exile is a bit much with out a better POD, perhaps something going back to the 1860s and harsher reconstruction lasting well into the twentieth century.

The thing about history is it is created by people, with all their flaws, heroics and lies. Men do funny things when put in situations where they have to either rise to the occaison or be pushed to the side and let history. Perhaps a Russian Spartacus can rise from the ashes after a brutal slaughter murdered his wife and child. The people can very well rally to his side, perhaps some soldiers, generals and other well placed members of the society will too. Its not too much of a stretch, history after all is full of scenarios like this.

Now the real question is, what happens next? Not can it be done? That is the whole point of these forums. The cause is not as important as the effect, the cause will go down as only a detail in history, the effect is what defines the world as it was, as it is and as it will be.

 

[RatCatcher]

OK, let see by points:

Justin wrote:
"The Soviet is a national body elected (initially) by members the Russian zhemstvo (roughly equivalent to parish councils)."

Gosudarstvennyi Soviet existed BEFORE Alexander II. It consisted of people appointed by Tzar. So, the advice of Loris-Melikov was not to create a new Soviet, but to give to "zemstvo" delagates PARTISIPATE it. Do you see the difference?

Justin wrote:
"After an attempt on his life in September 1887 (blamed on Polish nationalists), he starts a process of 'Russification' in areas where ethnic nationalism is rife. This includes a persecution of all non-Orthodox religious minorities."
In this time people did not blame someone in crimes they did not make. So, if socialists tried to kill Tzar? noone would blame Poles. It is XIX century, not XX.
Thens, what justin means by "persecution"? The real persecution could be only against Jews.
And you know, very few persecutions in Russia can be compared to, for example, English policy in Ireland

Justin wrote:
"However, this merely exacerbates the situation, triggering simultaneous nationalist uprisings in Poland, Finland, Byelorussia and the Ukraine, and plunging the nation into a Civil War."
Poland - in 1863 there was Great Pole Riot. Crashed by Russian army.
Finland - Alexander III liked Finland very much, and prefered to spend his holidays on Finnish lakes. In OTL he have never tried to take part of Finnish privileges back. The first attempt was made only by Stolypin in 1909.
Belorussia, Ukraine - there could be no uprising, simply because people did not care about it. Belorussian and Ukrainian nationalism appeared later, in early XX century.
Ukraine - there was not even such name, it was Malorossia (Small Russia).
Once again, army, Guards, police - they all are loyal to tzar. And no Spartac could change their mind.

You wrote:
"The people can very well rally to his side, perhaps some soldiers, generals and other well placed members of the society will too"
Generals - absolutely unbelivable. All generals and oficers are nobles and nobles did not really could betray Tzar.
Actualy there are 2 examplas of "Spartacus from ashes" - riots of Stepan RAzin in XVII century and Emelyan Pugachev in XVIII century. Both were executed.
By the way, do you remember what happened to Spartacus?

So, what REALLY could happen if Alexander II survived - slow political reforms, which would not be stopped even by Alexander III, and then, who knows, maybe first real parlament, Duma, would be elected without first russian revolution...

 

[Justin Pickard]

"Gosudarstvennyi Soviet existed BEFORE Alexander II. It consisted of people appointed by Tzar. So, the advice of Loris-Melikov was not to create a new Soviet, but to give to "zemstvo" delagates PARTISIPATE it. Do you see the difference?" - Okay. Say that this is strengthened, given more power and made more democratic...then surely its closure would have triggered outrage from groups such as the "People's Will". It seems to me that Alexander III came fairly close to causing a Civil War in OTL as it was, wouldn't the closure of the strenthened Soviet act as a catalyst - the final straw if you will.

As for the assasination attempt against Alexander III - what if it was orchestrated by Polish nationalists, and one was captured - would that be sufficiant?

"Persecution" was maybe a bit of a strong word. But say that only those who were Russian Orthodox could hold certain positions - such as teachers, administrators, lawyers etc. Maybe Orthodox Christians would get special privilages? What then?

Thanks for the ethnicity/nationalism information...

As for your lasty point, nobles could very well betray the Tsar. Indeed, some people believe that in OTL the reason that the "People's Will" were able to sucessfully assasinate Tsar Alexander III was because they have inside information for members of the Russian court as to his movements.

 

[RatCatcher]

Hi, Justin!

Say that this is strengthened, given more power and made more democratic

Democratic - yes, strengthened - no. But of course, the propaganda effect would be great.

It seems to me that Alexander III came fairly close to causing a Civil War in OTL as it was, wouldn't the closure of the strenthened Soviet act as a catalyst - the final straw if you will.

I don't think so. Democratisation is not always leads to Civil War.

But say that only those who were Russian Orthodox could hold certain positions - such as teachers, administrators, lawyers etc.
No. In real history there was nothing like this. There were menu non-Orthodox and even non-Christians not only teachers, lowers, etc., but even generals!

As for your lasty point, nobles could very well betray the Tsar.
In time of palace coup d'etats, not in the second part of XIX century

because they have inside information for members of the Russian court as to his movements
There is no provements