Help with Napoleon victory scenario-North America

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I am thinking about writing a post-Napoleon victory scenarion, however, while I do pretty much sketched out how Europe would look like, do you have any suggestions what would be butterflies in North America ?
Just to give an idea-in this scenario France is ruling only part of Europe, with Russia being neutral, Austro-Hungary lukewarm towards allied France. France is not a superpower dictating the rest of the world what to do, and in rivalry with English Empire.
 
A clear PoD would give us a lot more to work with, but I imagine a Britain shut out of a hostile Europe would be mucking around in the western hemisphere a bit. Is there an *1812, and when in relation to the European war?
 
I am thinking about writing a post-Napoleon victory scenarion, however, while I do pretty much sketched out how Europe would look like, do you have any suggestions what would be butterflies in North America ?
Just to give an idea-in this scenario France is ruling only part of Europe, with Russia being neutral, Austro-Hungary lukewarm towards allied France. France is not a superpower dictating the rest of the world what to do, and in rivalry with English Empire.

Post Napoleonic the Hapsburg realms is still just Austria. Does the Duchy of Warsaw still exist, if so it is unlikely Russia is neutral. Similarl points for Austria and Prussia if France has territories in Italy and Germany respectivly. Also what is the status with the Continental system, as long as that is in place Great Britain is unlikely to end its naval campaign and supporting campaigns against France on the continent.

A obvious idea that comes to mind in such a scenario is the USA taking and holding Canada if Britain is tied up on the continent. Hopefuly you'll be able to come up with a less noobish future for NA, do post your ideas and I will give feedback; intrested to see your ideas and eventually TL.

Regards Bobbis
 
Post Napoleonic the Hapsburg realms is still just Austria. Does the Duchy of Warsaw still exist, if so it is unlikely Russia is neutral.

The DoW wasn't popular with the Russians, true, although there are a lot more variables to fiddle with. But what's this about "just Austria?" Do you mean they didn't have any reliable alliances?

Similarl points for Austria and Prussia if France has territories in Italy and Germany respectivly.

Not really. Austria was resolved to make the best of a bad situation under Napoleon. In 1813 they hung back until after Bautzen. Prussia was pretty explosive after 1806, but it qould require a spark...

Also what is the status with the Continental system, as long as that is in place Great Britain is unlikely to end its naval campaign and supporting campaigns against France on the continent.

But if Napoleon got lucky and clever in several places, he could sign a peace with us. Spain is a major issue here. France could have been vastly more tactful, which would have left us rathe rin the lurch.

A obvious idea that comes to mind in such a scenario is the USA taking and holding Canada if Britain is tied up on the continent. Hopefuly you'll be able to come up with a less noobish future for NA, do post your ideas and I will give feedback; intrested to see your ideas and eventually TL.

But with the continent effectively controlled by Napoleon, we're in effect less tied up. We paid for many of the troops of the Coalition in 1813.
 
The DoW wasn't popular with the Russians, true, although there are a lot more variables to fiddle with. But what's this about "just Austria?" Do you mean they didn't have any reliable alliances?

In my mind the mere existance of the DoW means that any peace on the Vistular would just be to re-organise and prepare to fight again.

What I mean by this is that the Hapsburg empire is still 'Austria' and wont become the dual monarchy until 1867.

Not really. Austria was resolved to make the best of a bad situation under Napoleon. In 1813 they hung back until after Bautzen. Prussia was pretty explosive after 1806, but it qould require a spark...

Exactly, in the short term Austria makes the best of a bad situation. What I was saying is that by the time that Austria has rebuilt her armies, and other nations like Russia and Prussia are set to turn Europe into a powerkeg; Austria will go to make gains in Italy and to a lesser extent Germany.

But if Napoleon got lucky and clever in several places, he could sign a peace with us. Spain is a major issue here. France could have been vastly more tactful, which would have left us rathe rin the lurch.

Seconded the whole issue is reliant on Spain but Britain would have to end any ambitions of being superpower if they accept the treaty and would be more in line with the Continental powers, this would be a last ditch kinda thing and I can't see how France could inflict such a defeat on Britain. The continental system and perhaps an alliance with the US and some Indian powers is a start.

But with the continent effectively controlled by Napoleon, we're in effect less tied up. We paid for many of the troops of the Coalition in 1813.

The OP said that France wasn't sole dominator of the continent, therefore there is plenty of opertunity for the goldern cavalry of St George to make an appearance, along with actual cavalry too.
 
In my mind the mere existance of the DoW means that any peace on the Vistular would just be to re-organise and prepare to fight again.

Hmm. I've often said that teh Russians had no real reason to stick with France after 1810, but I think the really important issue is the continental system. The price of sugar rather put the edge of the evil Catholic conspiracy as far as the Russian educated public was concerned, and of course fighting France guranteed trade with Britain.

If there's a CoSys, Britain is up and kicking, and there's a DoW, then the Russians will be at best hostile schemers to France.

What I mean by this is that the Hapsburg empire is still 'Austria' and wont become the dual monarchy until 1867.

Oh, dur! Silly IBC. :eek:

Exactly, in the short term Austria makes the best of a bad situation. What I was saying is that by the time that Austria has rebuilt her armies, and other nations like Russia and Prussia are set to turn Europe into a powerkeg; Austria will go to make gains in Italy and to a lesser extent Germany.

Hmm. Austria was the most flexible power, I think. They weighed up pros and cons a lot, and after 1809, the Coalition needed to gather an awful lot of pros to interest them. British diplomacy in Vienna was rather tactless, as well, being on the lines of "War = Money! War = Good!" and making vague attempts to unseat Metternich.

Seconded the whole issue is reliant on Spain but Britain would have to end any ambitions of being superpower if they accept the treaty and would be more in line with the Continental powers, this would be a last ditch kinda thing and I can't see how France could inflict such a defeat on Britain. The continental system and perhaps an alliance with the US and some Indian powers is a start.

No Spanish debacle has interesting consequences for S.America, and for Austria. Napoleon needs to get lucky several times, but hey, he was willing to concede quite a bit in 1813 if he could get some colonies back.

The OP said that France wasn't sole dominator of the continent, therefore there is plenty of opertunity for the goldern cavalry of St George to make an appearance, along with actual cavalry too.

Ah, good point.
 
The bigger differences I believe will be not in the US but in Latin America as they are all achieving independence at this point and many of those movements were directly linked to what was going on in Spain at that time. So what exactly is going on in Spain in your TL?
A few butterflies can include:
The Bourbons actually fleeing to Mexico. This was the plan in OTL until last minute changes. If Jose Bonaparte stays King of Spain then this is a very likely option.
Most countries achieving independence earlier, due to Spain being weaker. Or achieving independence later. Napoleon actually promised to help Spain keep them, its unlikely but maybe Peru and Mexico.

If Latin America over all is stabler, some regions might become quite prosperous. In the case of Mexico it might really affect US expansionism westward. If the war of 1812 went different the US might push harder in Oregon, it might not.

Because Napoleon managed to stay Emperor you can assume many Latin American military leaders will pull a Napoleon and crown themselves. They did unsuccessfully in OTL maybe they'll be successful.

Maybe Gran Colombia manages to stay together this can affect Caribbean politics between US, Mexico, Britain, Colombia, Spain, a lot!

The one thing that you do have to consider is that France is now in a position to have an overseas Empire and as Spanish Empire crumbles and since the Monroe Doctrine is still not in place France will want to pick up the crumbs. It can do this formally by conquering and imposing its rule by force. However that is unlikely to last and you'll probably (but not necessarily) end up with a Latin America worse of than OTL. Or it can do it informally by establishing protectorates, much more practical and likely to last. This could also result in a more stable and wealthier Latin America which would pose as a challenge to the US.
 

Empee

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Is there an *1812, and when in relation to the European war?
Instead of going for Moscow, Napoleon stations his armies in Smolensk and Vilna, extending the campaign but building up the supply lines and logistics do Duchy of Warsaw.
Forcing Russian attack, the Grand Army manages to deal several blows to Russians, which lead to peace in 1813, the terms of which are quite easy on the Tsar. In terms of territory only parts of Lithuania are lost.
During the campaign Napoleon starts to realise that his battle genius is no longer the same as it was, and that enforcing peace by military means alone will not be sufficient.
As a result in the years 1813-1816 he tries to build up political position of France versus other powers, in part using his connections to France.
England continues to scheme against France and builds up another great coalition made of Austria, Prussia and Russian Empire.
Unknown to them Austrians have betrayed them, and when the war starts, Austria switches sides(it also gave information about war plans to France), moving against Prussia and Russian Empire. Metternicht is imprisoned for plotting against interests of Austria.
The resulting war ends with defeat of Prussia by which is turned into a depedency of Austria, and Silesia annexed back into Austrian holdings.
In North Sweden is convinced to join French side and together with French troops manages to take Petersburg, while Austrians, French and Poles manage to throw back Russian invasion.
In the aftermath Napoleon does arrange a Congress of Paris where European matters are resolved finally.
Sweden takes back its Baltic holdings, with Russia having only Petersburg as its sea outlet. Poland is restored with borders based on its pre-second partition with Louis-Nicolas Davout as its king. Additionaly an Cossack Hetmanate is made with its armies directly under command of French Emperor.
Out of Confederation of the Rhine the Kingdom of the Rhine is formed, with the exclusion of Saxony, that remains a seperate state and whose rulers gain Free City of Danzig as dependency(part of the city taxes go the Saxon court-compensation for losing Polish throne).

The system of French alliances looks like this-Kingdom of the Rhine, Kingdom of Poland, Sweden and Cossack Hetmanate.
The Congress is largely acceptence of Napoleon that France is leading but not the ruling country in Europe as the second power is Austria which gains Silesia and Prussia as dependency(reduced to territory of Brandenburg, Pomerania, and East Prussia with parts of West remaining).

During the Congress a truce agreement is made with England as well.

I know it's sketchy but those are the ideas I have so far.
Obviously I know little about French dealings with Spain, Italian states and I am not sure how to formulate the truce with England.

As for Latin America I want something like FRCA to exist as one of the migration destinations of Prussians in XIX century who are dissatisfied with Austrian rule over their country(doesn't have to be republic but a larger Central American state).
 
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