So Germany and Italy flip blue?
The French and Russians are fucked then.
I wonder if that super alliance of Germany, Britain, A-H, Italy, Ottomans, Japan, and America can stay together then. it is just way too big, right?
And that should mean France and Russia don't lose too much because balance of power and all that
I'd argue against those listing pretty verbosely, so this is the forewarning.
Thing is, with Germany, Wilhelm II was pushing Nicholas II to war with Japan when the latter was contemplating compromise (Nicholas as the "savior of the white race", "it is evident to every unbiased mind that Korea must and will be Russian," "Twenty to thirty million Chinese, supported by a half dozen Japanese divisions, led by competent, intrepid Japanese officers, full of hatred for Christianity—that is a vision of the future that cannot be contemplated without concern, and it is not impossible. On the contrary, it is the realisation of the yellow peril, which I described a few years ago and I was ridiculed by the majority of people for my graphic depiction of it ... Your devoted friend and cousin, Willy, Admiral of the Atlantic") and the Yellow Peril nonsense Wilhelm II was peddling that helped trigger the war in the first place.
As for why, Germany wanted Russia focusing on Asia for three reasons: 1. A Russia focused on conquering and pacifying the Far East is a Russia that can't focus on the Balkans (which removes the tensions with Austria-Hungary) and a Russia can't bring its full force down on Europe in any timely manner, 2. France really did not want Russia going on Asian adventures, with Maurice Rouvier even clarifying that the Franco-Russian alliance only applied to Europe and that France wouldn't help against Japan in OTL. Enough Russian expansionism in Asia would strain Franco-Russian ties and their alliance (at least that's what Wilhelm II was hoping for) and 3. Japan was allied to Britain, Wilhelm II intended on challenging Britain as world hegemon, and having Russia fight Japan could potentially force Russia into an alliance with Germany, which would help Germany realize its ambition of Weltpolitik once (well, again, what Wilhelm was hoping at least) the Tirpitz Plan actually came into fruition. So Germany fighting *against* Russia is counterintuitive for them when Wilhelm II had been cheerleading Nicholas II along the whole way to war.
I mean, Wilhelm II wrote to Nicholas, asking if
"Russia is equal to her task of undertaking the protection and defense of the White Race, and with it, Christian civilization, against the Yellow Race. And whatever the Japs are determined to ensure the domination of the Yellow Race in East Asia, to put themselves at its head and organise and lead it into battle against the White Race. That is the kernel of the situation, and therefore there can be very little doubt about where the sympathies of all half-way intelligent Europeans should lie. England betrayed Europe's interests to America in a cowardly and shameful way over the Panama Canal question, so as to be left in 'peace' by the Yankees. Will the 'Tsar' likewise betray the interests of the White Race to the Yellow as to be 'left in peace' and not embarrass the Hague tribunal too much?
and
"Since 97-Kiaochow-we have never left Russia in any doubt that we would cover her back in Europe, in case she decided to pursue a bigger policy in the Far East that might lead to military complications (with the aim of relieving our eastern border from the fearful pressure and threat of the massive Russian army!). Whereupon, Russia took Port Arthur and trusting us, took her fleet out of the Baltic, thereby making herself vulnerable to us by sea. In Danzig 01 and Reval 02, the same assurance was given again, with result that entire Russian divisions from Poland and European Russia were and are being sent to the Far East. This would not had happened if our governments had not been in agreement!
Germany not joining Russia in the war was one matter but doing a complete 180 and fighting against Russia for the sake of "the Yellow Race?" That's a bit out of character for Wilhelm II and doesn't help the realizations of his ambitions one bit. In the long run, it only manages to cement the Franco-Russia alliance as more of a necessity for Russia to protect itself from Germany, which would've proven itself as two-faced and untrustworthy to the extreme (telling Russia to go to war and then stabbing them in the back).
On the other hand, we had France publicly declare that France would not intervene in a Russo-Japanese conflict in 1904, so France joining Russia sans German involvement (which, as mentioned above, is unlikely and too requires an earlier POD) would require an earlier POD.
Regarding the US, the US was more partial to Japan, or could be pushed that way, due to Russia having protectionist economic policies and potentially locking the Americans out of the resources of Manchuria and Korea and Japan being more free trade. The Americans were more cordial with the British, too, due to economic interests than with the Russians. But even so, the US didn't enough incentive to make military moves overseas worthwhile economically or politically speaking.
Qing China too was more in line with supporting the Japanese, since it viewed the prospect of regaining Manchuria from the Japanese to be better than from the Russians, with Yuan Shikai offering aid to Japan during the war (turned down but the Chinese still favoured Japan over Russia).
On yet another hand, Joseon Kor-I mean the 'Empire' of Korea favoured Russia over Japan, especially after the assassination of Queen Min, but ended up playing neutral in a failed attempt to maintain independence. Korean involvement in the war would probably amount to very little in actual military effect but the guerilla potential and long-term damage is still worth consideration.
Another thing to mind is that Austria-Hungary has not yet annexed Bosnia in 1904, that being a significant source of animosity between the AH and Russian Empires, and both empires had agreed to status quo in the Balkans prior to this. AH joining the war is far from in the interests of the Dual Monarchy, especially against Russia since that would 1. spur more Russian aid to Slavic independence movements and pan-Slavism and 2. guarantee another war with Russia in coming years.
Overall, the only power that really was willing to jump into the conflict was Britain and they'd only do so if Russia had someone also willing to jump in. Honestly, the only 'someone' both crazy enough and powerful enough to warrant British intervention was Wilhelm II.
So to sum up, the most realistic prospect, with the above in mind, would be Russia+Germany vs Japan+Britain.
If you want the absolute maximum conflict though, then I'd say Russia+Germany+Austria-Hungary+Bulgaria+Serbia+Korea vs. Japan+Britain+France+Italy+the Ottoman Empire+Portugal+Qing China, with the US giving monetary aid to the latter camp and Spain sitting things out like OTL but leaning towards the former due to tensions regarding Ferdinando Po, maybe, would be the most likely escalation.