I'm looking to restart an old idea, with the hope to make it as realistic as possible, but would need help to do so.
The idea is to have a version of Germany survive to the present holding the territory of the German Empire, German Austria, and Burgenland (with Sopron/Preßburg) in one country, without having caused the second world war. It may have caused a version of the first, but successfully avoids the pitfalls from this timeline's developments afterwards.
I'm not sure whether to keep a monarchy/chancellor, or to go with the President/chancellor system from the Weimar constitution, whichever would give the most stability to the eventual 20th century Germany.
I have a very rough timeline for this Germany, which I would like to have keep some island territories to the present.
Rough timeline:
1815 - Guadeloupe, Martinique, St Martin, Reunion and Seychelles ceded to the Coalition; Reunion becomes a territory of the German Confederation (Deutscher Bund) along with French Guiana, Seychelles, Mauritius, and the Scattered Islands; St Martin is ceded to the United Kingdom of the Netherlands; Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Barts are ceded to Sweden. The undercurrent of having island territories brings forth a sense amongst many Germans in the various states of belonging to one 'Germany' even if their Confederation isn't as unified as France or the United Kingdom, and increased the desire amongst many Germans to do so.
1815-30 - Prussia, Bavaria, Württemberg, Saxony, and other German states vie to send colonists to the island territories, before the 1831 conference leading to the 'Colonial Office' which is the Confederation-wide office to administer the islands. Germany doesn't seem to seek any additional colonies at this point, but does set up some trading posts, including some in what we would call Namibia/Angola, Senegal, Gabon/Cameroon, and Tanzania.
1830s - Liberals protest throughout the decade across the German states. Baden becomes a republic, Hanover introduces a liberal constitution that actually sticks. With the increase in German ships, the British sends additional ships out that would otherwise have been docked near the home islands to protect trade and find new islands for themselves.
1820 - A convoy of ships from London, the HMS Donegal, Diana, and Niobe reached the coast of New Caledonia. After an attack on the British sailors and a priest by the islanders, reinforcements from New Zealand and Australia back up the ships, returning in the fall and claiming the islands for the United Kingdom.
1840s - Liberals grow in the west of Germany, the movement moving from Hanover to Westphalia and the Rhine Province, and from Baden northward.
From there I'm unsure of how to get the eventual revolutions of 1848 to play out, and from there, have Austria and Hungary split, Germany unite, and 'German Austria' join that country. That's where I'm having difficulty. I had thought to have Frederick William IV as the first Kaiser (William I having fallen in the riots in Berlin), then Frederick III, then Prince Henry (with William II having troubles in East Asia) till 1929, and his son Waldemar until 1945, at which time, the monarchy would either collapse and the country becomes a republic with romanticized views of the old monarchy, or it would continue to this day in some form.
My rough version had:
-Frederick William IV agrees to and keeps the more liberal constitution and accepts title of German Emperor;
-Schleswig falling to Germany in 1864, then a Franco-German War where Alsace-Lorraine is captured, but no crowning in Versailles, and A-L is made an actual state between 1867-69.
-Hungary successfully gets independence from Austria in 1848 (not sure how this affects Austria though). From here to the 20th century, I don't envision this Germany making huge waves, but does join in the colony game in some manner.
-Hungary ignites the Bosnian Crisis in 1908, which angers the Serbs who take out the Hungarian King. Hungary declares war on Serbia, Russia on Hungary, Austria on Russia, and so on until Europe is all at war, though Germany here drags its feet and waits till France declares war on it to declare war on France.
-This European War lasts till around 1915, and I'm not sure if the Americans even join in, but I would have them at the diplomatic table (without Woodrow Wilson).
-This treaty would have plebiscites in Schleswig and A-L, leaving the majority Danish/French areas to those countries, Poland gaining free port rights in Danzig, and shared war reparations amongst Austria, Hungary, Germany, and the Ottomans, no merger of Austria/Germany for 20 years, and minority rights for the Poles in Posen. Prussia would break into its constituent provinces, with the king of Prussia becoming king in East/West Prussia and German Emperor. Germany limits its army to 125K, a light recon airforce only, and a merchant marine. France is outraged, wanting all of A-L back, but the Germans accept. Henry I promises to rebuild and repay the war costs. Austria's monarchy falls and it becomes a republic.
-Henry I passes, and Waldemar is crowned German emperor in 1929, and the post-war stability of the monarchy holds Germany through the depression of the 1930s when the rest of the world's major powers succumb to the economic downturn. Instead of inflating the money supply, Germany encourages its poor to the colonies with free passage and lower taxes, and by 1937, its economy is turning around.
-France in this timeline believes the Americans double-crossed them, and begin making demands for the return of all of Alsace-Lorraine, and a mounting extremist movement finally seizes its government in 1932 (Croix-de-Feu), and begins building up its military.
-1935-37 Austria votes to remain independent of Germany through vote-rigging and accusations of fraud ripple across Austria. Dollfuß's autocratic style, reminiscent of Italy, worries Germans, who move troops to the border with Austrian Bohemia and Upper Austria.
-1937 - Austria declares war on Germany, viewing their troop movements as hostile acts; this Germany declares war, but having older war equipment, their mobilization is lacking. The first four months is a slow Austrian advance until the Germans begin making progress into Austrian Bohemia, Austrian Moravia, and Upper Austria. By 1938, the Germans are in Austria, on the way to defeating Austria's fascist regime, when France attacks, for Germany violating their treaty (its army exceeded 125K and they bought additional arms for their troops and built new heavy tanks).
-1938-41 - Franco-German War - France annexes A-L, and moves through the United Kingdom of the Netherlands into Rhineland and west Germany, with its aim officially to 'enforce treaty obligations' and secure its debt payments by seizing the Rhineland and its factories. Spain's government sends aid to France, while Fascist Italy attempts to seize Tyrol, Carinthia, and Styria from Austria while it's distracted. This war begins to turn in 1940, and by 1941, France is pushed out of Germany, and back into France, with Germany forcing a French surrender on July 14. Austria had already capitulated on June 6.
1942 - Germany and Austria merge under the German emperor, Waldemar, but now face Russia, who believes it the right time to strike, sweeping in from the east.
1942-48 - Second Great War - Russia faces off against Europe, and agrees to divide China with Japan. Japan falls in 1947 to the Americans, while Korea is taken back from the communist forces, and China remains divided in two. Russia sweeps through Europe, taking Poland, Germany, even the Balkans. The UK allies with France and Germany to push back the reds, including the Americans. After using two nuclear bombs, the Allies force Russia to capitulate and leave the countries it had conquered. Volga Germans are sent to Germany out of Russia. Kruschev takes over leadership from Stalin of the country. By 1948, China is at peace, but divided into North and South, while Korea is united and free, with British and American troops along the borders.
1948 - a United Nations is formed as a diplomatic body to attempt to prevent future wars and resolve conflicts through diplomacy, based in NYC.
----
That's a rough timeline, but I kept a monarchy for stability there, at least till the 40s. Anyone have any ideas what works, what doesn't, what would be better? I'm hoping to carry this timeline to the present, flesh out the present world from this timeline's perspective.