Help needed for Greater Germany timeline

JJohnson

Banned
I'm looking to restart an old idea, with the hope to make it as realistic as possible, but would need help to do so.

The idea is to have a version of Germany survive to the present holding the territory of the German Empire, German Austria, and Burgenland (with Sopron/Preßburg) in one country, without having caused the second world war. It may have caused a version of the first, but successfully avoids the pitfalls from this timeline's developments afterwards.

I'm not sure whether to keep a monarchy/chancellor, or to go with the President/chancellor system from the Weimar constitution, whichever would give the most stability to the eventual 20th century Germany.

I have a very rough timeline for this Germany, which I would like to have keep some island territories to the present.

Rough timeline:

1815 - Guadeloupe, Martinique, St Martin, Reunion and Seychelles ceded to the Coalition; Reunion becomes a territory of the German Confederation (Deutscher Bund) along with French Guiana, Seychelles, Mauritius, and the Scattered Islands; St Martin is ceded to the United Kingdom of the Netherlands; Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Barts are ceded to Sweden. The undercurrent of having island territories brings forth a sense amongst many Germans in the various states of belonging to one 'Germany' even if their Confederation isn't as unified as France or the United Kingdom, and increased the desire amongst many Germans to do so.
1815-30 - Prussia, Bavaria, Württemberg, Saxony, and other German states vie to send colonists to the island territories, before the 1831 conference leading to the 'Colonial Office' which is the Confederation-wide office to administer the islands. Germany doesn't seem to seek any additional colonies at this point, but does set up some trading posts, including some in what we would call Namibia/Angola, Senegal, Gabon/Cameroon, and Tanzania.
1830s - Liberals protest throughout the decade across the German states. Baden becomes a republic, Hanover introduces a liberal constitution that actually sticks. With the increase in German ships, the British sends additional ships out that would otherwise have been docked near the home islands to protect trade and find new islands for themselves.
1820 - A convoy of ships from London, the HMS Donegal, Diana, and Niobe reached the coast of New Caledonia. After an attack on the British sailors and a priest by the islanders, reinforcements from New Zealand and Australia back up the ships, returning in the fall and claiming the islands for the United Kingdom.
1840s - Liberals grow in the west of Germany, the movement moving from Hanover to Westphalia and the Rhine Province, and from Baden northward.

From there I'm unsure of how to get the eventual revolutions of 1848 to play out, and from there, have Austria and Hungary split, Germany unite, and 'German Austria' join that country. That's where I'm having difficulty. I had thought to have Frederick William IV as the first Kaiser (William I having fallen in the riots in Berlin), then Frederick III, then Prince Henry (with William II having troubles in East Asia) till 1929, and his son Waldemar until 1945, at which time, the monarchy would either collapse and the country becomes a republic with romanticized views of the old monarchy, or it would continue to this day in some form.

My rough version had:
-Frederick William IV agrees to and keeps the more liberal constitution and accepts title of German Emperor;
-Schleswig falling to Germany in 1864, then a Franco-German War where Alsace-Lorraine is captured, but no crowning in Versailles, and A-L is made an actual state between 1867-69.
-Hungary successfully gets independence from Austria in 1848 (not sure how this affects Austria though). From here to the 20th century, I don't envision this Germany making huge waves, but does join in the colony game in some manner.
-Hungary ignites the Bosnian Crisis in 1908, which angers the Serbs who take out the Hungarian King. Hungary declares war on Serbia, Russia on Hungary, Austria on Russia, and so on until Europe is all at war, though Germany here drags its feet and waits till France declares war on it to declare war on France.
-This European War lasts till around 1915, and I'm not sure if the Americans even join in, but I would have them at the diplomatic table (without Woodrow Wilson).
-This treaty would have plebiscites in Schleswig and A-L, leaving the majority Danish/French areas to those countries, Poland gaining free port rights in Danzig, and shared war reparations amongst Austria, Hungary, Germany, and the Ottomans, no merger of Austria/Germany for 20 years, and minority rights for the Poles in Posen. Prussia would break into its constituent provinces, with the king of Prussia becoming king in East/West Prussia and German Emperor. Germany limits its army to 125K, a light recon airforce only, and a merchant marine. France is outraged, wanting all of A-L back, but the Germans accept. Henry I promises to rebuild and repay the war costs. Austria's monarchy falls and it becomes a republic.
-Henry I passes, and Waldemar is crowned German emperor in 1929, and the post-war stability of the monarchy holds Germany through the depression of the 1930s when the rest of the world's major powers succumb to the economic downturn. Instead of inflating the money supply, Germany encourages its poor to the colonies with free passage and lower taxes, and by 1937, its economy is turning around.
-France in this timeline believes the Americans double-crossed them, and begin making demands for the return of all of Alsace-Lorraine, and a mounting extremist movement finally seizes its government in 1932 (Croix-de-Feu), and begins building up its military.
-1935-37 Austria votes to remain independent of Germany through vote-rigging and accusations of fraud ripple across Austria. Dollfuß's autocratic style, reminiscent of Italy, worries Germans, who move troops to the border with Austrian Bohemia and Upper Austria.
-1937 - Austria declares war on Germany, viewing their troop movements as hostile acts; this Germany declares war, but having older war equipment, their mobilization is lacking. The first four months is a slow Austrian advance until the Germans begin making progress into Austrian Bohemia, Austrian Moravia, and Upper Austria. By 1938, the Germans are in Austria, on the way to defeating Austria's fascist regime, when France attacks, for Germany violating their treaty (its army exceeded 125K and they bought additional arms for their troops and built new heavy tanks).
-1938-41 - Franco-German War - France annexes A-L, and moves through the United Kingdom of the Netherlands into Rhineland and west Germany, with its aim officially to 'enforce treaty obligations' and secure its debt payments by seizing the Rhineland and its factories. Spain's government sends aid to France, while Fascist Italy attempts to seize Tyrol, Carinthia, and Styria from Austria while it's distracted. This war begins to turn in 1940, and by 1941, France is pushed out of Germany, and back into France, with Germany forcing a French surrender on July 14. Austria had already capitulated on June 6.
1942 - Germany and Austria merge under the German emperor, Waldemar, but now face Russia, who believes it the right time to strike, sweeping in from the east.
1942-48 - Second Great War - Russia faces off against Europe, and agrees to divide China with Japan. Japan falls in 1947 to the Americans, while Korea is taken back from the communist forces, and China remains divided in two. Russia sweeps through Europe, taking Poland, Germany, even the Balkans. The UK allies with France and Germany to push back the reds, including the Americans. After using two nuclear bombs, the Allies force Russia to capitulate and leave the countries it had conquered. Volga Germans are sent to Germany out of Russia. Kruschev takes over leadership from Stalin of the country. By 1948, China is at peace, but divided into North and South, while Korea is united and free, with British and American troops along the borders.
1948 - a United Nations is formed as a diplomatic body to attempt to prevent future wars and resolve conflicts through diplomacy, based in NYC.
----

That's a rough timeline, but I kept a monarchy for stability there, at least till the 40s. Anyone have any ideas what works, what doesn't, what would be better? I'm hoping to carry this timeline to the present, flesh out the present world from this timeline's perspective.
 
Butterflies. Khrushchev and Dolfuss shouldn't exist.

Germany isn't getting Caribbean colonies out of the napoleonic wars. The hanseatic cities merchants were very wary of upsetting Britain in this time period. It wasn't until the 60s or 70s they started pressuring the government for colonies. There was a fear that if they upset the British they'd lose out on preferential trade status and being the main outlet of British goods into Central Europe. But this sounds better than what I remember from the last version you made.
 
The colonial territories at Vienna are entirely dependent on British goodwill. The Netherlands getting St Martin and the Swedes getting some of the minor ones (St Barts maybe, but Martinique and Guadeloupe are unlikely) are reasonable suggestions as part of compensation for the loss of territories elsewhere, but I cannot see any reason why France is going to be stripped of her entire colonial empire, only for Britain to give away some not inconsiderable territories (which include Mauritius which had been neutralised as a pirate threat in 1810 due to some careful diplomacy by the British in return for governance of the island) to a confederation which, at this point, has essentially no navy to speak of.
 

JJohnson

Banned
Butterflies. Khrushchev and Dolfuss shouldn't exist.

Germany isn't getting Caribbean colonies out of the napoleonic wars. The hanseatic cities merchants were very wary of upsetting Britain in this time period. It wasn't until the 60s or 70s they started pressuring the government for colonies. There was a fear that if they upset the British they'd lose out on preferential trade status and being the main outlet of British goods into Central Europe. But this sounds better than what I remember from the last version you made.

Perhaps not. I was thinking more that having some kind of colony with serve 2 purposes - reduce France's power, and serve as a 'we gave you this, so give us favorable trading status' gift to either the Hansa cities or Prussia or something, and that would also serve as something to draw the German states together over time.

And yes, better than the last timeline, and hopefully I can flesh it out with everyone's help.
 

JJohnson

Banned
The colonial territories at Vienna are entirely dependent on British goodwill. The Netherlands getting St Martin and the Swedes getting some of the minor ones (St Barts maybe, but Martinique and Guadeloupe are unlikely) are reasonable suggestions as part of compensation for the loss of territories elsewhere, but I cannot see any reason why France is going to be stripped of her entire colonial empire, only for Britain to give away some not inconsiderable territories (which include Mauritius which had been neutralised as a pirate threat in 1810 due to some careful diplomacy by the British in return for governance of the island) to a confederation which, at this point, has essentially no navy to speak of.

I was thinking the islands would be removed from France as compensation for having caused around a decade and a half of wars for the parties involved, which included the German states, some of which were conquered by France. St Martin and St Barts are pretty minor, I agree, and we can go ahead with those transfers. What about the various German states? Would any of France's islands go there, perhaps Hanover? And how important were Martinique/Guadeloupe that they had to remain French vs. going to either the UK or another European power?
 
I was thinking the islands would be removed from France as compensation for having caused around a decade and a half of wars for the parties involved, which included the German states, some of which were conquered by France. St Martin and St Barts are pretty minor, I agree, and we can go ahead with those transfers. What about the various German states? Would any of France's islands go there, perhaps Hanover? And how important were Martinique/Guadeloupe that they had to remain French vs. going to either the UK or another European power?

The German states wouldn't want them. They've got no navy to reach there, and would much prefer bits of territory from the neighbouring German states/Belgium/Poland/France etc.
 
The colonial territories at Vienna are entirely dependent on British goodwill. The Netherlands getting St Martin and the Swedes getting some of the minor ones (St Barts maybe, but Martinique and Guadeloupe are unlikely) are reasonable suggestions as part of compensation for the loss of territories elsewhere, but I cannot see any reason why France is going to be stripped of her entire colonial empire, only for Britain to give away some not inconsiderable territories (which include Mauritius which had been neutralised as a pirate threat in 1810 due to some careful diplomacy by the British in return for governance of the island) to a confederation which, at this point, has essentially no navy to speak of.

Well Alex St Barts was already Swedish and they did get Guadaloupe OTL so... and the Vienna congress was not a British dictate
 
Well Alex St Barts was already Swedish and they did get Guadaloupe OTL so... and the Vienna congress was not a British dictate

Ah, was it indeed. And I know that the whole thing wasn't a British dictate, but when it came to overseas colonies if Britain didn't want a nation to get something, there wasn't a whole lot they could do about it.

Case in point, Sweden was ceded Guadeloupe, but it remained under British occupation with British governors and with a British administration.
 
Perhaps not. I was thinking more that having some kind of colony with serve 2 purposes - reduce France's power, and serve as a 'we gave you this, so give us favorable trading status' gift to either the Hansa cities or Prussia or something, and that would also serve as something to draw the German states together over time.

And yes, better than the last timeline, and hopefully I can flesh it out with everyone's help.

Or Britain could take the islands themselves instead of handing them over to foreigners. And the cities aren't exactly in a place to negotiate with the British. Where else will Germany get quality industrial goods in 1815? Local industry, while about to boom, was not on par with British industry at the time. They can't tell Britain to go screw themselves exactly.
 
perhaps to lessen the appearance of having butterfly catchers around certain people, replace Dolfuss and others with equivalent but fictional characters so that for example in this case you could have Albert Dornberg leading the Heritage Protection Party.
 
Ah, was it indeed. And I know that the whole thing wasn't a British dictate, but when it came to overseas colonies if Britain didn't want a nation to get something, there wasn't a whole lot they could do about it.

Case in point, Sweden was ceded Guadeloupe, but it remained under British occupation with British governors and with a British administration.

Well Sweden was a bit reluctant to send ships overseas while the Danish Navy and French Army was at its borders ofcourse having a coup and the things that follow in 1809 didnt help.
 

JJohnson

Banned
You markedly diverged in 1848, only to have ASB level convergence in an alt WW1 and OTL outcome.

If you wish to explore the idea, then go with your biggest initial POD, which is the Hungarians successful in the 1848 revolution.

That results in the dissolution of the AH as we know it. It leaves Prussia predominant in Germany.

Does Austria refocus on Germany afterward?

Is there still an Austro - Prussian war? If so, Prussia hammers Austria even further, and you could setup a Greater Germany off that. Then we get a Franco Prussia war, and boom, Greater Germany.

With that in place, there will be no OTL WW1. There is no more AH, there is Greater Germany and Greater Hungary, and neither has major points of contention with Russia. There would be no Entente vs Central Powers , etc.


That's the kind of help I'm looking for. I'm thinking having Hungary's independence succeed will steer Austria towards Germany eventually, but I'm not sure how and when that would happen - 1860s perhaps?. What are the implications of Hungary going its own way in 1848 for Austria? Does Austria experience political instability that causes its collapse and annexation into Germany? What about Czechia? And will France try to step in and mess with annexation to the point of causing a Franco-German war?

It is possible for there to be an Austro-Prussian War at some point in the next 20 years or so after 1848, but the flash point is my question and what I would still need to research. European history at that time is still new to me.

You are correct that OTL WW1 won't happen considering the changes so far in Germany, Austria, and Hungary, aside from the ripple effect outward from that. If we go with Greater Germany and Greater Hungary, who are their most likely allies and enemies? Lots of questions and I'm definitely open to ideas for how to fill in the timeline. Thanks for your input, I do appreciate it.
 
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