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I've chirped about this occasionally; what I'm doing is attempting to build a vaguely plausible backstory for a surviving, modern-day "Gran Colombia" that has a per-capita GDP similar to OTL Spain.

Given that this will support some fiction-writing in Alternate History Writers, I'm not building a super-detailed timeline. It will certainly not be referenced very often in detail in the story(s). Its primary purposes are to tell me what the geographical extent of Colombia is in the modern day, and what other major powers exist alongside it. Here's what I've outlined thus far:

1820s

-Gran Colombia is formed as the result of successful rebellions against Spain (~OTL)

-Bolivar is killed late in the struggle (POD)

-Given that much of OTL Ecuador remains disputed between Colombia and Peru, the two countries still fight a war over it, and Colombia still wins, adding the territory in question.

-Bolivar's absence does a fair bit to weaken the centralist factions within Colombia; consequently, the centralist/decentralist political struggle that ripped OTL Colombia apart somewhat reduced. By and large, the republic develops along constitutional/decentralist lines.
 
1830s

-Rather than splinter apart, Colombia generally stumbles along.

-Primary source of political squabbling is between protectionist and open-market factions amongst the economic elites.

1840s

-Friction between political factions turns into low-grade civil war.

-Peruvian powerplay fails to snatch back OTL Ecuador and there's a bit of shooting but not quite a war.

-Political factions make amends, insofar as the two recognize that their squabbles threaten national security and must be toned down.

-Colombian attempts to woo Costa Rica into the fold are unsuccessful.

-Colombia watches Mexican/American fireworks with interest but has no obvious dog in the race; events in that part of the world unfold more or less as OTL.

1850s

-Slavery outlawed in Colombia.

1860s

-There being no obvious butterfly to prevent it, the French still get involved in Mexico. Colombia joins the USA in supporting the Mexican liberales, who manage to get rid of Maximilian a little sooner. Dude might be less inclined to stay and die for his crown.

-There also being no obvious butterflies to prevent it, the Americans still have a civil war. Colombia officially has no favorites, but finds very modest opportunities to assist the CSA out of a pragmatic hope that the war will end with two rivals in North America rather than one. Though specifics vary, the war has the same general outcome as OTL.

-The Colombians do note the significance of railways and waterways in the latter conflict, though, and more emphasis is placed on "nation-building" infrastructure than had been the case previously.

-Relations with Spain remain strained; Spain continues to behave antagonistically towards its former colonies. However, the Chincha Islands War is butterflied away.

1870s

-The dispute between Bolivia and Chile over mineral rights in the Atacama comes a little earlier as there's no post-Chincha period of South American solidarity. Peru gets involved on the Bolivian side - and then Chile talks Colombia into getting involved.

-The war is shorter in duration than the OTL War of the Pacific, and goes more poorly for Peru/Bolivia. While Chile bites off chunks of both, Colombia gobbles up much of the Peruvian Amazon. On the other hand, Colombian efforts to seize coastal territory are thwarted by the Peruvian navy.

-Feeling cocky nonetheless, the Colombians turn their gaze to their other neighbours. Efforts to renegotiate the border with British Guiana are thwarted, as the British don't care to do so and aren't exactly a pushover. Efforts to expand south into the Brazilian Amazon are hindered by the utter lack of infrastructure and Brazil's control of the lower Amazon. Costa Rica remains "an option". And there's the Spanish colonies in the Caribbean: Cuba and Puerto Rico.

-But, somewhat unexpectedly, it is the Dominican Republic which gets more-or-less voluntarily annexed into Colombia. (OTL) Dominican efforts to get annexed into Spain and the USA had failed, but the third time was the charm. The USA expresses discontent and imposes some trade sanctions, but doesn't make a forceful effort to prevent the deal. Between Reconstruction of the South, and expansion westward, it's got its hands full.

-Colombia starts providing material assistance to pro-independence forces in Cuba and Puerto Rico.

1880s

-By this point, Colombia's neighbours are pretty leery of it. Powers with interests in the area - USA, UK, France, Spain - are reluctant to trade advanced arms or hardware.

-This does present something of an opening for Germany to increase exports, however.

-And it's also incentive for some domestic industrialization, too.

-French entrepenuers start planning a canal through Nicaragua. Whatever the geographic benefits and drawbacks of a canal there or in the Panama Isthmus, the French reckon it'll be easier to manage the small Nicaraguan government than the large Colombian one.

1890s

-Spain sees the writing on the wall. Locals in Cuba, Philippines, and Puerto Rico are all restless and Spain doesn't have the resources to suppress them all. Cuba is especially problematic given that both the USA and Colombia covet it. So Spain makes the domestically unpopular move of selling Cuba to the USA.

-Along generally OTL lines, Spain also concludes an autonomy agreement with Puerto Rico.

-More Spanish resources are then moved to the Philippines. Fighting continues there for awhile, but an autonomy agreement is eventually forged there as well.

-French businesses starts construction of a canal across Nicaragua; American and Colombian interests, among others, subscribe to the share offering.

-The 1895 Venezuelan Crisis is butterflied away.

-The Spanish-American War is butterflied away.

Elsewhere:

-Events in Europe, Africa, Asia, minus the above, generally proceed as historical. We have Germany coming together and freaking out/beating up its neighbours, the scramble for Africa, etc.

My questions are:

-Are the general events outlined vaguely plausible?

-Should the butterflies flap harder, further afield? I'm assuming, for now, that they are largely confined to the Americas.

-Are there compelling reasons to think the above significantly affects the lead-up to WW1?

Your thoughts are much appreciated...
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