Help me work out a Gran Colombian backstory/timeline...

I've chirped about this occasionally; what I'm doing is attempting to build a vaguely plausible backstory for a surviving, modern-day "Gran Colombia" that has a per-capita GDP similar to OTL Spain.

Given that this will support some fiction-writing in Alternate History Writers, I'm not building a super-detailed timeline. It will certainly not be referenced very often in detail in the story(s). Its primary purposes are to tell me what the geographical extent of Colombia is in the modern day, and what other major powers exist alongside it. Here's what I've outlined thus far:

1820s

-Gran Colombia is formed as the result of successful rebellions against Spain (~OTL)

-Bolivar is killed late in the struggle (POD)

-Given that much of OTL Ecuador remains disputed between Colombia and Peru, the two countries still fight a war over it, and Colombia still wins, adding the territory in question.

-Bolivar's absence does a fair bit to weaken the centralist factions within Colombia; consequently, the centralist/decentralist political struggle that ripped OTL Colombia apart somewhat reduced. By and large, the republic develops along constitutional/decentralist lines.
 
1830s

-Rather than splinter apart, Colombia generally stumbles along.

-Primary source of political squabbling is between protectionist and open-market factions amongst the economic elites.

1840s

-Friction between political factions turns into low-grade civil war.

-Peruvian powerplay fails to snatch back OTL Ecuador and there's a bit of shooting but not quite a war.

-Political factions make amends, insofar as the two recognize that their squabbles threaten national security and must be toned down.

-Colombian attempts to woo Costa Rica into the fold are unsuccessful.

-Colombia watches Mexican/American fireworks with interest but has no obvious dog in the race; events in that part of the world unfold more or less as OTL.

1850s

-Slavery outlawed in Colombia.

1860s

-There being no obvious butterfly to prevent it, the French still get involved in Mexico. Colombia joins the USA in supporting the Mexican liberales, who manage to get rid of Maximilian a little sooner. Dude might be less inclined to stay and die for his crown.

-There also being no obvious butterflies to prevent it, the Americans still have a civil war. Colombia officially has no favorites, but finds very modest opportunities to assist the CSA out of a pragmatic hope that the war will end with two rivals in North America rather than one. Though specifics vary, the war has the same general outcome as OTL.

-The Colombians do note the significance of railways and waterways in the latter conflict, though, and more emphasis is placed on "nation-building" infrastructure than had been the case previously.

-Relations with Spain remain strained; Spain continues to behave antagonistically towards its former colonies. However, the Chincha Islands War is butterflied away.

1870s

-The dispute between Bolivia and Chile over mineral rights in the Atacama comes a little earlier as there's no post-Chincha period of South American solidarity. Peru gets involved on the Bolivian side - and then Chile talks Colombia into getting involved.

-The war is shorter in duration than the OTL War of the Pacific, and goes more poorly for Peru/Bolivia. While Chile bites off chunks of both, Colombia gobbles up much of the Peruvian Amazon. On the other hand, Colombian efforts to seize coastal territory are thwarted by the Peruvian navy.

-Feeling cocky nonetheless, the Colombians turn their gaze to their other neighbours. Efforts to renegotiate the border with British Guiana are thwarted, as the British don't care to do so and aren't exactly a pushover. Efforts to expand south into the Brazilian Amazon are hindered by the utter lack of infrastructure and Brazil's control of the lower Amazon. Costa Rica remains "an option". And there's the Spanish colonies in the Caribbean: Cuba and Puerto Rico.

-But, somewhat unexpectedly, it is the Dominican Republic which gets more-or-less voluntarily annexed into Colombia. (OTL) Dominican efforts to get annexed into Spain and the USA had failed, but the third time was the charm. The USA expresses discontent and imposes some trade sanctions, but doesn't make a forceful effort to prevent the deal. Between Reconstruction of the South, and expansion westward, it's got its hands full.

-Colombia starts providing material assistance to pro-independence forces in Cuba and Puerto Rico.

1880s

-By this point, Colombia's neighbours are pretty leery of it. Powers with interests in the area - USA, UK, France, Spain - are reluctant to trade advanced arms or hardware.

-This does present something of an opening for Germany to increase exports, however.

-And it's also incentive for some domestic industrialization, too.

-French entrepenuers start planning a canal through Nicaragua. Whatever the geographic benefits and drawbacks of a canal there or in the Panama Isthmus, the French reckon it'll be easier to manage the small Nicaraguan government than the large Colombian one.

1890s

-Spain sees the writing on the wall. Locals in Cuba, Philippines, and Puerto Rico are all restless and Spain doesn't have the resources to suppress them all. Cuba is especially problematic given that both the USA and Colombia covet it. So Spain makes the domestically unpopular move of selling Cuba to the USA.

-Along generally OTL lines, Spain also concludes an autonomy agreement with Puerto Rico.

-More Spanish resources are then moved to the Philippines. Fighting continues there for awhile, but an autonomy agreement is eventually forged there as well.

-French businesses starts construction of a canal across Nicaragua; American and Colombian interests, among others, subscribe to the share offering.

-The 1895 Venezuelan Crisis is butterflied away.

-The Spanish-American War is butterflied away.

Elsewhere:

-Events in Europe, Africa, Asia, minus the above, generally proceed as historical. We have Germany coming together and freaking out/beating up its neighbours, the scramble for Africa, etc.

My questions are:

-Are the general events outlined vaguely plausible?

-Should the butterflies flap harder, further afield? I'm assuming, for now, that they are largely confined to the Americas.

-Are there compelling reasons to think the above significantly affects the lead-up to WW1?

Your thoughts are much appreciated...
 
-Are the general events outlined vaguely plausible?

Yes, I'd say they are.

I have only two points:

1) You mention political squabbling is between protectionist and open-market factions, which later "make amends, insofar as the two recognize that their squabbles threaten national security and must be toned down." How, exactly, that issue is eventually worked out is important, because it will eventually shape the nation. Protectionist economies and free markets lead to quite different results.

2) I don't think Gran Colombia supporting the CSA, just a decade after outlawing slavery itself, is plausible. There would have been significant opposition to abolition from the landowners, and if that had been overcome, I imagine the Colombian government would want to be clearly anti-slavery. I'd expect them to stay neutral when it comes to the Civil War. (Also because a Union victory is clearly in the cards, and antagonizing the USA is not a smart move.)


-Should the butterflies flap harder, further afield? I'm assuming, for now, that they are largely confined to the Americas.

Butterflies flap harder than you think. They always do. ;) I'd expect there to be subtle changes over time, all over the world. The idea of increased economic ties between Germany and colombia, for instance, will have effects.


-Are there compelling reasons to think the above significantly affects the lead-up to WW1?

I'm not sure there would be a WW1, as we know it, due to butterflies. Assuming a similar conflict as a similar point in time, might the aforementioned economic ties mean that Colombia joins the *Central Powers, or at least allies with them to some extent? (Maybe it would try to grab Nicaragua, getting the canal?)

In that case, what does Spain do? Does it still detest Colombia, and automatically sides against it?

What about the USA? It has annexed Cuba. There are bound to be different presidents. Does the president in office at the time even want to enter into *WW1 (on the Entente side)? Maybe not, since that would mean fighting Colombia, and would maybe even lead to troubles in Cuba (do the people there feel any solidarity towards Colombia? Was there a faction that really wanted to join Colombia?)

Maybe the USA enters on the *CP side, together with Colombia, but only in the Western hemishere. Together, they kick the French out and take control of the lucrative canal. Meanwhile, in Europe, with American trade denied to the Entente but granted to the CPs, the CPs might win the war.

...or things could go off in a completely different direction. I'm just spitballing here.

Hope it's of some use to you.
 

Deleted member 67076

There are a number of things I'd correct in this outline. First of all, the butterflies should be a lot more effective in this timeline. Events worldwide would probably not go broadly like OTL.

I personally think you're understating Gran Colombia's development. Gran Colombia should be more like OTL Italy than anything else on the economic side of things, even if there is some stumbling along the way. They have immense resources(Venezuela alone was the #1 oil producer in the world for over 40 years), more co-ordination than OTL, a less militaristic tradition, haven't really fallen into the caudillo cycle, a large population (OTL Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador's population add up to over 100 million. ITTL it would be more with the added stability), a strategic position and most importantly, the country is MUCH more stable compared to OTL, making it more attractive area to invest in.

Industrialization should start earlier, around the 1860s nationally more or less. In several of the states, it should start earlier, around the 50s (and if all goes well, the late 1840s). If the country wants to expand, that should be an incentive to start industrializing there. The military would likely be backers of a native armament industry, which should help fund a military industrial complex and give more incentive to industrialize. As well, the military will be a big fan of railroads, as that will at the least aid in troop deployment and centralization. (This can probably be likened to the Gomez regime in Venezuela) With regards to "nation building" this should happen in the 30s or 40s, not starting in the 60s. Stability and a larger state will give the country much more money than any of the Post Colombian state would otherwise have and this should be reflected in the nation's infrastructure. Since you are going with a federal structure of government, this is going to start of locally and as early as possible in certain areas, particularly ones that really on trade and manufacturing. Expect the coastal regions to be more developed than the hinterland.

While I do think the country would be decentralized, it is important to know that Santander, the main advocate of decentralization and de facto ruler of GC while Bolivar was commanding troops, increasingly centralized the country, causing unrest among the provincial elites. And with Bolivar not here to support him (at least until 1826, when things went downhill) you're going to see even more discontent, possibly spilling into revolt if things go badly. Or might not. You may possibly need a POD that keeps him from overly centralizing.

With regards to Ecuador, you might want to have Juan Jose Flores killed for good measure, as he was the main instigator of Ecuadorian independence. With him dead, much of the support for independence is kept insignificant and Colombia will have a much better time holding that area. Also, of note, Ecuador had a growing textile and manufacturing industry in the late colonial era, which was destroyed during following the first decades of independence. Here, that probably won't be the case. They'll also be a big backer of the Anti-Federalists and would be a base of support for free trade.

About slavery, Gran Colombia had already abolished it in 1829. In OTL, it was reinstated after the country's dissolution by the Republic of New Granada government. Here that won't happen. The liberals in Venezuela (along with Haiti, who Colombia was friendly too) wouldn't stand for it and the rural elites already shifted to ruling over poor freemen.

Dominican annexation, I'm having a hard time seeing it. The reason the country was readmitted into Spain and wanted to be re-annexed was due to Buenaventura Baez attempts to secure power. This will ALMOST CERTAINLY be butterflied away. Now, I do foresee a very warm relationship between the two countries. Dominican Republic might become Gran Colombia's Canada, per say.

The Colombians would almost certainly try destabilize Brazil as much as they can. As time goes on, they will see Brazil as enemy #1, not Peru.

Colombia would get very mad at the Mexican-American war and give aid to them.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
There are a number of things I'd correct in this outline. First of all, the butterflies should be a lot more effective in this timeline. Events worldwide would probably not go broadly like OTL.

I personally think you're understating Gran Colombia's development. Gran Colombia should be more like OTL Italy than anything else on the economic side of things, even if there is some stumbling along the way. They have immense resources(Venezuela alone was the #1 oil producer in the world for over 40 years), more co-ordination than OTL, a less militaristic tradition, haven't really fallen into the caudillo cycle, a large population (OTL Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador's population add up to over 100 million. ITTL it would be more with the added stability), a strategic position and most importantly, the country is MUCH more stable compared to OTL, making it more attractive area to invest in.

Industrialization should start earlier, around the 1860s nationally more or less. In several of the states, it should start earlier, around the 50s (and if all goes well, the late 1840s). If the country wants to expand, that should be an incentive to start industrializing there. The military would likely be backers of a native armament industry, which should help fund a military industrial complex and give more incentive to industrialize. As well, the military will be a big fan of railroads, as that will at the least aid in troop deployment and centralization. (This can probably be likened to the Gomez regime in Venezuela) With regards to "nation building" this should happen in the 30s or 40s, not starting in the 60s. Stability and a larger state will give the country much more money than any of the Post Colombian state would otherwise have and this should be reflected in the nation's infrastructure. Since you are going with a federal structure of government, this is going to start of locally and as early as possible in certain areas, particularly ones that really on trade and manufacturing. Expect the coastal regions to be more developed than the hinterland.

While I do think the country would be decentralized, it is important to know that Santander, the main advocate of decentralization and de facto ruler of GC while Bolivar was commanding troops, increasingly centralized the country, causing unrest among the provincial elites. And with Bolivar not here to support him (at least until 1826, when things went downhill) you're going to see even more discontent, possibly spilling into revolt if things go badly. Or might not. You may possibly need a POD that keeps him from overly centralizing.

With regards to Ecuador, you might want to have Juan Jose Flores killed for good measure, as he was the main instigator of Ecuadorian independence. With him dead, much of the support for independence is kept insignificant and Colombia will have a much better time holding that area. Also, of note, Ecuador had a growing textile and manufacturing industry in the late colonial era, which was destroyed during following the first decades of independence. Here, that probably won't be the case. They'll also be a big backer of the Anti-Federalists and would be a base of support for free trade.

About slavery, Gran Colombia had already abolished it in 1829. In OTL, it was reinstated after the country's dissolution by the Republic of New Granada government. Here that won't happen. The liberals in Venezuela (along with Haiti, who Colombia was friendly too) wouldn't stand for it and the rural elites already shifted to ruling over poor freemen.

Dominican annexation, I'm having a hard time seeing it. The reason the country was readmitted into Spain and wanted to be re-annexed was due to Buenaventura Baez attempts to secure power. This will ALMOST CERTAINLY be butterflied away. Now, I do foresee a very warm relationship between the two countries. Dominican Republic might become Gran Colombia's Canada, per say.

The Colombians would almost certainly try destabilize Brazil as much as they can. As time goes on, they will see Brazil as enemy #1, not Peru.

Colombia would get very mad at the Mexican-American war and give aid to them.

Okay, the last part I would disagree with. Granted Colombia and Brazil would be rivals, but Brazil and Colombia was seperated by the near impassible Amazon rainforest, so that would at least prevent hostilities for a good while. Peru of course is no where near strong enough to take on Gran Colombia, but with that being said, I do imagine Colombia being pro-Argentinian in any Platinian-Brazilian conflicts. As for Mexico, it all depends on the matter of if Mexico retains Central America. If it does, then yeah, if not, then support might not be plentiful, as a powerful Colombia might contest Mexico for influence in Central America.
 

Deleted member 67076

Okay, the last part I would disagree with. Granted Colombia and Brazil would be rivals, but Brazil and Colombia was seperated by the near impassible Amazon rainforest, so that would at least prevent hostilities for a good while. Peru of course is no where near strong enough to take on Gran Colombia, but with that being said, I do imagine Colombia being pro-Argentinian in any Platinian-Brazilian conflicts. As for Mexico, it all depends on the matter of if Mexico retains Central America. If it does, then yeah, if not, then support might not be plentiful, as a powerful Colombia might contest Mexico for influence in Central America.
Well I was referring to the late 1800s to 1900s in which the Amazon barrier would eventually be surpassed and both economies would start to boom. They'd eventually be the most powerful countries on the continent. That'd likely lead to war, if not a very big rivalry.

As for Mexico, OP mentions Nicaragua which implies the Central American states have broken off from Mexico. While I don't disagree that there would be a degree of rivalry, I don't believe the two sides would to blow unless one of them made open grabs for power and influence in Central America. I do say Colombia would be angry at a Mexican-American war in which America does very well in as that would upset the balance of power drastically in America's side (this assumes that the government is thinking far ahead and seeing a possible threat in the US).
 
I think you’re massacring butterflies indiscriminately here. First off, the POD. Does Bolivar die when exactly? 1819? 1823? 1825?

If he dies before the Guayaquil conference, Gran Colombia is in deep shit. To its east, are the British Colonies. To the southeast Brazil. And to the South, a mammoth Peru that stretches from Guayaquil to Argentina, hardly a pushover. If he dies in 1824, then you gain Guayaquil, but OTL Bolivia would still end up as part of Peru; again creating a Greater Peru that could squash the Colombians, should the war of 1829 still happen.

With the passage of time, if OTL’s progress of Peru is any indicator, the guano bonanza will allow the Peruvians to overtake the Colombians militarily. And perhaps, with the unified resources of Bolivia and Peru, a larger industrial base by the mid to late 1850s. Peru laid down the first railway line in LA in 1851, and by then also had a “large” (by SA standards) arms industry thriving in Ayacucho, Arequipa, and Lima itself.
 
quick question for my own interest- could this scenario still happen if, id est, the British take over Argentina? how much influence would the earlier POD have over our "Gran Colombia" TL?
 
I think you’re massacring butterflies indiscriminately here. First off, the POD. Does Bolivar die when exactly? 1819? 1823? 1825?

If he dies before the Guayaquil conference, Gran Colombia is in deep shit. To its east, are the British Colonies. To the southeast Brazil. And to the South, a mammoth Peru that stretches from Guayaquil to Argentina, hardly a pushover. If he dies in 1824, then you gain Guayaquil, but OTL Bolivia would still end up as part of Peru; again creating a Greater Peru that could squash the Colombians, should the war of 1829 still happen.

With the passage of time, if OTL’s progress of Peru is any indicator, the guano bonanza will allow the Peruvians to overtake the Colombians militarily. And perhaps, with the unified resources of Bolivia and Peru, a larger industrial base by the mid to late 1850s. Peru laid down the first railway line in LA in 1851, and by then also had a “large” (by SA standards) arms industry thriving in Ayacucho, Arequipa, and Lima itself.

I'll freely concede my butterflies may be too arbitrary, Dominican annexation a case in point.

Are you guys able to direct me to some sturdy, online references that I can peruse? My initial passes through the 'net did not yield a lot of success for me.
 
Top