So this is something I've been working on for many years, but some things still just don't feel correct or fit as nicely as I'd like to. I'm hoping a fresh set of eyes will yield some new ideas and workability.

Basically, I will be posting various 'sections' of the TL in chronological format and we'll evaluate it as a group. Hopefully it passes as "okay, that's interesting but could work" or gets changed or outright replaced with a different idea. Then, we can help decide what the most logical course of action would be after this.

In other words, this TL isn't quite finished, and I'm looking for help and suggestions to see where it might go, or to evaluate the plausibility of such a thing. Here's what I generally have so far (in incredibly condensed form):


Central POD is post War of 1812 where, amidst the period of OTL's 'The Atlantic Revolutions', Britain generally heeds the words of Admiral Sir David Milne when he wrote "We cannot keep Canada if the Americans declare war against us again." The presence of numerous settlers of American origin in Upper Canada leave Britain wary of potential revolution that could be used as a future casus belli.

Different Latin American Wars of Independence results in the Department/Republic of Guayaquil becoming a British Protectorate. This upsets America and the nascent Monroe Doctrine. In 1827, Dalhousie's refusal of accepting Papineau as Speaker of the Assembly leads to earlier Lower and Upper Canada rebellions (there is also the shortlived OTL Madawaska Republic). Emboldened by the revolutions elsewhere, they also seek responsible government. In other words, Canadian history is jump-started by a full decade.

Heeding Milne's words and having seen the dangers of where revolution can lead, the British government of Arthur Wellesley acts rather quickly, and a provisional act of union between the Canada's and the rest of the BNA colonies is pushed in order (or hopes) to better deter the US and revolutionary zeal. More forts such as OTL's citadelle, Fort Henry, and others are constructed in case another war breaks out.

1842. It's clear that this rushed union is not working out for many, and gold has just been discovered in the Fraser Valley of the Oregon Country/Columbia District. Coinciding with an earlier establishment of "proto-Canada," there is an earlier though still not wholehearted attempt at western settlement. This stokes American fears that Britain will attempt to seize all of the Oregon Country. Amicable Anglo-Mexican relations and the British fortifications do not assuage fears that a new war is around the corner. Eager for access to the Pacific, America is willing to go to war if necessary. "54'40 or Fight!" becomes far more serious and literal.

Roughly coinciding with the discovery of gold in the Fraser Valley of the Columbia District/Oregon Country, the Union put pressure on Britain to allow them to reform it and Britain, wary of American expansion and disunited colonies, was eager to listen. It also helped that Baldwin and Lafontaine were around to help try and find cooperation and compromise. The end result is the replacement of the Union of North America with the Commonwealth of North America in 1842, which was a relatively loose union with many protections and guarantees for minorities, be they linguistic or religious. It also maintained a promise for greater representation for the smaller provinces, and would also enable greater funding for projects such as railroads. Louis-Hippolyte Lafontaine became the first Premier of the Commonwealth of North America.

Seeing European interference in Venezuela, Central America, Ecuador, and Argentina, America forms a sort of "Anti-Imperial/Anti-European Alliance." The Oregon crisis, Texas issue, and European interference in Latin America eventually lead to the Pan-American War, a war between Britain and allies vs America and allies across the two continents. It lasts from 1846 to 1852. The war beyond North America catches Britain off-guard, but they do eventually rally and the war becomes a British victory.

The loss of space to expand exacerbates an already tense crisis between slave and free states in the US. Some other PODs lead to the US Civil War starting in 1851. It also lasts much longer due to events and loss of life and industry in the Pan-American War. Mexico loses a rump Texas, and Britain holds onto northern California in exchange for lifting their debt to them. This and other PODs prevent a later return of Santa Anna, much to Mexico's benefit (sort of). Europe generally sees the defeat of America as a defeat of the Monroe Doctrine as well, and begin searching for potential opportunities to exploit.

Further reform and tweaking of the "proto-Canada" eventually results in it becoming the Kingdom of Canada, with then-prince Arthur being crowned King William I of Canada in 1867. Things are good for Canada as a whole. Terrible Icelandic eruption essentially results in temporary uninhabitability of most of Iceland (Mount Askja eruption, but even worse than OTL). A 'free state' of sorts is set up in Canada similar to OTL. This will have repercussions later.

The French exploit the Reform War in Mexico to help restore the Mexican Empire and turn it into a French Protectorate. Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic) becomes a US state in 1871. In 1873, eager to unite Americans, the Virginius affair is the catalyst for an earlier Spanish-American War. Puerto Rico becomes a territory, and Cuba is invited to become a state.

Uruguay by this point is firmly in the sphere of Brazil and is ostensibly a British Protectorate. The ongoing crisis/civil war in Argentina means they can't settle/claim Patagonia as effectively. The Welsh still colonize the area. Patagonia eventually becomes a British Colony. Kind of like a South American version of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia (still part of the British Empire, but proud of the history, heritage, culture, and language. This makes Patagonia the second part of the world to speak Welsh as an official language.

Different events in Europe has led to a stronger (though not super strong) Netherlands. The French have also helped restore the Second Haitian Empire and make them a puppet state of France. The Dutch have a small colony on Guatemala's coast. The Spanish attempted to retake Santo Domingo in 1853, but failed (this was also before they asked to become a US state). These events helped Britain reconsider the Monroe Doctrine and helped turn them away from recognizing the CSA.

With no Belgium sneaking in the Congo Free State thanks to earlier PODs, Africa continues as normal; influence with natives. This makes for a much different colonial conference and scramble for Africa. A system more akin to what the British had in India and the Dutch had in Indonesia becomes the standard format of colonization and control in Africa. Lots of "Princely States" in this TL. Dutch exploration and colonization of the Congo pushes the convening of the Berlin Conference. Britain takes the Dutch side as far as establishing company/colonial control and exerting influence on kingdoms being the way future dealings with Africa should work. Other nations (France, Portugal, Germany, Spain, Italy, etc.) agree to this principle.

The extra involvement of Britain in affairs in the Americas has left them feeling frustrated and overwhelmed when they want to focus on more global affairs. Britain offers to help the US reestablish and indirectly enforce the Monroe Doctrine in exchange for acceptance of Canada and existing British colonies in the hemisphere. This is accepted and is the start of better and more amicable relations between the two powers. America starts to settle into an international role different from OTL: that of democratic champion, global factory, and business investor (like OTL's modern China, only a force for good). The situation and enough people are convinced that things are pretty peaceful or internal in the Americas, and so Britain transfers control of all its colonies and protectorates in the Americas and the Atlantic to the Kingdom of Canada. These are called 'Trusts' instead of Dominions because though British, they are held "in trust" of the Kingdom of Canada which has become far bigger and more populous than OTL. Essentially, it is now the "British Empire in the Western Hemisphere," or the Western British Empire in some circles.

Early 1900's. There's still some crises, including the new Iceland Crisis that sees Iceland become a part of Canada via referendum due to the aforementioned history. Denmark is salty. Though African colonization is pretty different, it still happens though the borders are wonkier and more natural. WWI happens pretty much OTL. America, being more neutral TTL, still helps Britain et al with supplies and loans, but doesn't get involved in the war. There's no German invitation to Mexico to invade the US because earlier POD's left Mexico with much more territory than OTL, and Mexico has had a good thing going for a while (they're kind of becoming like the Spanish-speaking Catholic version of OTL America; coast to coast, lots of people, booming economy, deeply religious). However, Canada and the British Empire are bigger. Also, Brazil joins the war in 1917 like it did OTL.

In this TL, the war happens similarly, only sans Americans. Anticipating a fresh massive wave of newly trained Brazilian units, the Germans have their Spring Offensive but it is halted and pushed back more or less as per OTL. However, because both sides didn't acquire total victory in this version, the peace leaves no one happy.

Russia still descends into civil war, Germany is allowed to keep its eastern OTL borders pre-1914 but is sworn from any further annexations or putting German princelings in control of new states in eastern Europe. They are also banned from uniting with Austria. They are not banned from establishing relationships and protectorates with the new states, though, provided they also give up their overseas colonies. Germany gives up all of Schleswig-Hollstein (as said earlier, the Danes are salty and this is their consolation prize) and returns Alsace-Lorraine to France. Germany must demilitarize as per OTL but doesn't suffer occupation as in OTL. Poland, Lithuania, Estonia/Livonia, Ukraine, and Finland all become independent. Germany doesn't suffer the sole blame for WWI and pays much less in reparations than OTL.

Germany breathes a sigh of relief as the war was not a total embarrassment (they retain more of their borders, don't suffer occupation, and still retain a degree of power and influence and new opportunities in eastern Europe). This also means the German Empire survives, albeit by a slim margin. Russia is pissed because, well, Russia. They want those territories back. France is pissed because they wanted to see Germany suffer completely and see eastern Europe as being "given away as a German plaything." This leads France and Russia to feeling 'abandoned' by their allies, and incidentally pushes them closer together in a new/renewed Franco-Russian Alliance.

In the wake of the war, British Dominions ask for the "Canada treatment," where they get territories and 'independence' and their own kingdoms. Australia is the most passionate for this, followed to a certain degree by New Zealand. South Africa, for still tense ethnic and cultural reasons, is not as keen (though it does eventually happen, as well as a different political history that sees it avoid being a pariah state and having majority rule). India also asks for greater representation, which only complicates matters further. In the wake of the war, France descends into chaos and a revolution brings about a French version of fascism/nationalism.

Some shit happens in the 30s, and it's clear that France and Russia are the big allied powers looking to settle the score from WWI. Italy goes fascist, and the French take their cue from that like OTL Nazi Germany did. The 'Axis Powers' of this TL are France, the USSR, and Italy. France and Italy covertly help the fascists in Spain win the civil war. Other post-WWI events have led the development of the "Latin League," an alliance/economic objective between France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal to a certain extent. Romania also considers joining, but fears encirclement by enemies (Hungary, Ukraine, Poland, and Bulgaria).

Germany and Britain are like "omgwtf" and try to prevent their surging power. They eventually issue an ultimatum that if the Soviets invade any of the recently independent countries, and if France and/or the Latin League support them, that would be seen as an act of war. They also sideeye Belgium for any French leanings. The war kicks off when the Soviets invade Finland, and France exploits a crisis in Belgium. TTL's version of WWII has kicked off. "Allied Powers" are: British Empire et al., German Empire, Finland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Japan, Brazil, the USA, Turkey and others that would join later. The "Axis Powers" are: France and colonies, USSR, Italy and colonies, Spain and colonies, Serbia, and Greece.

The Soviet invasion is a diversion, meant to draw allied men to the East so France can exploit Belgium and transport their armies through it while the Maginot Line limits German movement options. Fearing they might ally with Germany and assault their supply lines, France invades the Netherlands. Now needing to split men between two fronts, the Soviets unleash an invasion of the Baltics, Ukraine, and Poland as well. However, like with OTL's Winter War, it quickly becomes an embarrassment for the Soviets. Poland does the worst out of them all because they limited German influence. However, the other states, fearful of the Soviets and Polish irredentism took to German training and military structure and tactics. They are holding, allowing the Germans to increase focus on France and their southern allies. Africa becomes a much more crucial part of the war than OTL.

Post WWII TTL, the Latin League is defeated when allied troops march into Paris with only minor fighting and resistance. Nukes are dropped on several Russian cities, including Moscow and Stalingrad (the soviets "take more work"). Japan has taken parts of the Russian Far East. Canada has invaded French territories in the Caribbean and West Africa, and helped in the Italian, North African, and Spanish campaigns. They also helped liberate Denmark and the Netherlands. Other stuff that I forget.


This is about where I've gotten so far, but there's more I want to include. This is also where I would like some help and guidance. I do have some ideas, but I'll get to those when it becomes relevant.
 
I really like it. One thing I'd suggest is for the world to be a bit more different. Instead of WW1 possibly a second Pan-American War. This seems to be a Canadian-focused timeline so I that giving Canada an enemy in the Americas would be cool. You could also make the second Pan-American War expand to Europe or just have a powerful nation in the Americas side with Germany. I'd also suggest to get rid of the Iceland volcano thing. It doesn't really feel necessary but makes the timeline feel like something that couldn't happen because the eruption didn't happen in OTL.

Hopefully these suggestions help you and once again this sounds really cool! :)
 
I really like it. One thing I'd suggest is for the world to be a bit more different. Instead of WW1 possibly a second Pan-American War. This seems to be a Canadian-focused timeline so I that giving Canada an enemy in the Americas would be cool. You could also make the second Pan-American War expand to Europe or just have a powerful nation in the Americas side with Germany. I'd also suggest to get rid of the Iceland volcano thing. It doesn't really feel necessary but makes the timeline feel like something that couldn't happen because the eruption didn't happen in OTL.

Hopefully these suggestions help you and once again this sounds really cool! :)

@ETGalaxy Actually, I planned for a second Pan-American War to come about after the earlier collapse of the USSR post-WWII TTL. A bunch of them go to South America and Africa. And there's a certain communist who plays an even bigger role than OTL.

And the eruption did happen OTL. Mount Askja erupted, a bunch of Icelanders fled, and it's why there's Icelandic communities in Manitoba and why Canada has the highest number of Icelandic descendants outside of Iceland. The GG at the time even offered to let them have a free state of sorts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_Canadians

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Iceland
 
That isn't ok..

Meh. It just shows me they don't like reading. No biggie. :p

Here's something I came up with, though; since the US doesn't reach the Pacific in this TL, what does that do to the Alaska Purchase? OTL Russia wanted to sell it because they wanted to get some value from it and not have Britain take it from them for nothing in a future war. With no America to buy, is Britain interested? Does Russia hold onto it? Does Russia sell it to the Japanese?
 
Really interesting. I would love to read more. My own personal suggestion would be to keep world war 1 and add the second pan-American warehouse in the late 20s or early thirties but keep it a short war. This would allow the allies to have trained units, which may be necessary for Germany if you want them to train eastern European militaries. In addition it opens up different technological and logistical lessons for everyone to learn from, if you're into the whole specifications of warmachines and blow-by-blow battles that is. Hope that this is helpful and I look forward to reading more.
 
For reference, here's a map of the Americas after the conclusion of all theatres of the Pan-American War:

https://imgur.com/a/L4sEd
L4sEd
 
Would it be possible for the Netherlands to retain at least half of Flanders?
Yes, with minor differences during the Belgian revolt, I could see Belgian Limburg remain Dutch. I could even see a Dutch Antwerp (city and Provence). Dutch troops did occupy part of Antwerp for a long time. I could see them keeping it. In the end all depends on the negotiations after the revolt. If Dutch troops occupy more of Limburg and Antwerp province (or other parts of Belgium), the Netherlands could keep more of Belgium.
 
Okay, here's something I'm still trying to figure out how it would work and affect things...

In this TL, America doesn't reach the Pacific. They do intend to in their own way, but it's not like OTL's massive stretch of North American coastline, and they won't get closer access until later. So what does this do to Japan being forced open by Perry's fleet? Does America sail anyway (from further afield)? Does some other nation or empire open Japan? Is there no opening and therefore Japan languishes? What happens?

IMPORTANT: The US Civil War in this TL occurs from 1851-1861, so even if it's an American fleet, they would be delayed until after this war, causing other potential butterflies.
 
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Okay, here's something I'm still trying to figure out how it would work and affect things...

In this TL, America doesn't reach the Pacific. They do intend to in their own way, but it's not like OTL's massive stretch of North American coastline, and they won't get closer access until later. So what does this do to Japan being forced open by Perry's fleet? Does America sail anyway (from further afield)? Does some other nation or empire open Japan? Is there no opening and therefore Japan languishes? What happens?

IMPORTANT: The US Civil War in this TL occurs from 1851-1861, so even if it's an American fleet, they would be delayed until after this war, causing other potential butterflies.
Perry probably wouldn't open Japan and my idea would be for Canada or Britain to open up Japan instead to help keep the focus on these two.
 

Great_Stag

Banned
Few questions.

How's Indo-China? How's China? What new nations are forming in Africa and how are they? Who are the new monarchs in Australia/NewZealand and S.Africa? Is this going to an Imperial Confederation? And how powerful is the Western British Empire in comparison to its' original counterpart?

Otherwise, it's a very interesting idea with a lot of ways it could go down.
 
Okay, here's something I'm still trying to figure out how it would work and affect things...

In this TL, America doesn't reach the Pacific. They do intend to in their own way, but it's not like OTL's massive stretch of North American coastline, and they won't get closer access until later. So what does this do to Japan being forced open by Perry's fleet? Does America sail anyway (from further afield)? Does some other nation or empire open Japan? Is there no opening and therefore Japan languishes? What happens?

IMPORTANT: The US Civil War in this TL occurs from 1851-1861, so even if it's an American fleet, they would be delayed until after this war, causing other potential butterflies.

If Japan were to enjoy a form of Meiji restoration ittl, I doubt USA will have the same influence over how that happens. I agree with ETGalaxy, the British and Canadian navies should be the driving forces here, or leave it until later. The question then becomes how would Japan respond to an empire that lies to the east (Canada), south (Australasia) and West (India)? There is a lot of things that are different here, but trade is likely to be equal to or greater than OTL. My question is would the British be accepting of a power dedicated to rapidly expanding economically and militarily so close to two major parts of the empire?

Hope this helps.
 
Few questions.

How's Indo-China? How's China? What new nations are forming in Africa and how are they? Who are the new monarchs in Australia/NewZealand and S.Africa? Is this going to an Imperial Confederation? And how powerful is the Western British Empire in comparison to its' original counterpart?

Otherwise, it's a very interesting idea with a lot of ways it could go down.

Long story short, Indochina is still falling firmly under French influence, and very little will differ from OTL in French Indochina. China is in between the two Opium Wars. Since I'm largely focusing on the 1850s at the moment, "new" nations don't exactly exist in Africa yet; it's just that the future of expansion will rely more of establishing protectorates and inter-tribal wars than effective control/seizure (though the latter will play a role).

As for the new monarchs, that's still being worked out. After all, Australia didn't becoming a united dominion until 1901. I figure that a member of the royal family would test-run as a governor-general and would need to ingratiate themselves into the society, which would take time and not necessarily be guaranteed success. In New Zealand for example, the Maori and their kings may not take kindly to such an imposition unless it merged with their structure as well. As I said in my original post: "In the wake of the war (WWI), British Dominions ask for the "Canada treatment," where they get territories and 'independence' and their own kingdoms. Australia is the most passionate for this, followed to a certain degree by New Zealand. South Africa, for still tense ethnic and cultural reasons, is not as keen (though it does eventually happen, as well as a different political history that sees it avoid being a pariah state and having majority rule)."

As for the Japanese, it's not like Australia is unified at this point, and isn't as populous as its Asian neighbours to the North. Additionally, Canada ITTL is far more Americas-focused, so anything to do with Asia only matters so far as trades and cheap labour goes (kind of like OTL). Remember, the "colonies" that Canada has ITTL were foisted on them by the Brits and renamed 'Trusts' as it was now the Kingdom of Canada's job to safeguard, improve, and develop them, with of course some occasional help from Britain and gradual transfer of power (kind of how OTL Canada grew into a self-governing nation with its own military). Proto-Canada only really arises in the Pan-American War, and the actual Kingdom of Canada doesn't arrive until 1867. In the 1850s? Canada's going to be far too focused on getting its shit together than sending any kind of armada to Japan's shores. Britain is the most likely candidate.

OTL Britain seemed charmed by Japan and respected their meteoric rise to success. And being supporters of capitalism, I could see Britain forcing Japan to open itself up to Britain and the world. Again however, you suggested leaving it until later. We could see a post-US civil war fleet sail from Virginia like it did OTL, only it would delay Japanese modernization by around 10-15 years.
 
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Great_Stag

Banned
I can't really comment on Japan, due to a lack of knowledge. Since this the 19th century, I'd imagine it's gonna be one of Queen Vic's kids getting the thrones. With Iceland part of Canada, how's the culture shift? Does this lead to the Scandinavian Union or revanchist Denmark?
 
I can't really comment on Japan, due to a lack of knowledge. Since this the 19th century, I'd imagine it's gonna be one of Queen Vic's kids getting the thrones. With Iceland part of Canada, how's the culture shift? Does this lead to the Scandinavian Union or revanchist Denmark?

Right, so what I have in mind with Iceland is that while the island is pretty much abandoned in 1870, it is still technically a Danish territory/colony. By the turn of the century, many want to go back (like OTL) but the higher numbers of "Icelanders in Canada" who themselves essentially had a free state, complicate matters. Now, I'm not suggesting that they made a free state in Canada and abandon it; I'm planning that many are now tied to the land but others want to go back to Iceland but now have a taste for independence. This is the source for the Iceland Crisis of 1901.

Basically, Canada and Denmark don't want a needless war, but Denmark (rightfully) asserts that it is their territory, and Canada (rightfully) asserts that these are Canadian citizens and as such are their responsibility. Since most of the Icelanders migrated to Canada, this is a weird situation where the territory belongs to someone else, but the bulk of the people returning to said territory have kind of become independent and/or different citizens. The diplomatic crisis is resolved by international arbitration over a referendum held in Iceland. Denmark offers a form of home-rule (remember, earlier and worse eruption prevents OTL limited home rule), Canada offers to make Iceland a province where they will have control over their language, laws, culture, etc. like Quebec. Independence was proposed as an option, but Denmark (understandably) refused. The vote is held and by a relatively narrow margin, they vote to join Canada as they see more benefits. Canada still keeps it largely open to Danes as an "apology" for inadvertently taking a piece of Denmark's overseas empire.

This obviously displeases Denmark to the point they ally with the Germans in the hopes that a victory on their part can extract Iceland as a reparation from Canada in a future conflict.

I'm open to suggestions for improvement, or new methods for how this comes about.
 
The Iceland dispute seems reasonable, but I am unsure as to how valuable Denmark saw Iceland as being, the main exports from the time seem to be fish and diatomite (a material used to stabilise explosives). I don't feel they would ally against the various allies Canada has, especially since the British Isles are so close, though I am willing to be proven wrong. A Scandinavian union would potentially be able to make for a much fairer fight, but that is assuming that they are willing to break almost 100 years of peace. On the other hand, if diatomite is rare, then maybe they would want to corner the market, or there could well be something I missed.

Regarding Japan, I do indeed stand corrected, looked it up and the British were somewhat fond of Japan for a little over a century and considered them fine trading partners. The relationship between these two would be even closer ITTL.

Look forward to reading more!
 
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