Hello! I have some questions for you :-)

[Haydn]

Hello!

I don't know if it's alright to post something like this here but if not excuse my naivety

I have some question I want to hear opinions about, I not asking for hard political science just your opinion! heads up, my English is messy do it might be a hassle to read

1. How long could the 2nd French empire have lasted if not for the Franco-Prussian war? would the people eventually rise up? probably yes but could it have gone on into the 20th century?

2. In the US civil war, what will be the borders if the Confederacy held? from looking at a map it seems that the corridor between Virginia and the great lakes is very small in comparison to the HUGE plains to the west, would the union at least annex west Virginia?
could California have succeeded into its own thing if the union lost? if yes where will the border between California and the Union go? the Rockies? the Mississippi?

3. If the white army won the Russian civil war, and a tsardom under Kolchak was established, would there be any industrialization?
Under Stalin there were the five-year plans, who were perhaps the greatest and quickest industrialization policies in history, and I don't believe White Russia would be capable of this, but Kolchak was very militaristic and I suspect he would implement at least modest attempts at Tank manufacturing, not tens of thousands like the Soviets but still...

Thanks! this is mainly for fun, so don't be too restrictive!

 

[Augenis]

Welcome!

1. How long could the 2nd French empire have lasted if not for the Franco-Prussian war? would the people eventually rise up? probably yes but could it have gone on into the 20th century?

Depends. I wouldn't necessarily call the Second Empire as inherently unpopular - though Napoleon III was an autocrat, his rule was generally quite benevolent when compared to some other absolute monarchs Europe had seen in history. The 1860s saw a period of relaxed government censorship and autocracy, and Napoleon III oversaw important economic and social reforms. If Napoleon III or his successor see the writing on the wall and decide to continue the "Liberal Empire" reforms into an actual constitutional monarchy, then I can't see why the French Empire couldn't survive into the 20th century, or hell, if it's lucky, into the 21st.

2. In the US civil war, what will be the borders if the Confederacy held? from looking at a map it seems that the corridor between Virginia and the great lakes is very small in comparison to the HUGE plains to the west, would the union at least annex west Virginia?
could California have succeeded into its own thing if the union lost? if yes where will the border between California and the Union go? the Rockies? the Mississippi?

I have zero knowledge about the US Civil War, so my answer is Pikachu

3. If the white army won the Russian civil war, and a tsardom under Kolchak was established, would there be any industrialization?
Under Stalin there were the five-year plans, who were perhaps the greatest and quickest industrialization policies in history, and I don't believe White Russia would be capable of this, but Kolchak was very militaristic and I suspect he would implement at least modest attempts at Tank manufacturing, not tens of thousands like the Soviets but still...

The thing about Soviet industrialization is that it was inherently asymmetrical. Its goal was never to improve the well-being of the Soviet people or to strengthen the Soviet economy to make it as wealthy as the West, its goal was to drastically improve Soviet military-industrial complex and have its technology, especially military technology, catch up to what the West could offer, both of which were successfully achieved. Common people be damned.

No matter what government arises from White Russia after the civil war (unless it's as totalitarian and expansionist as Stalinist USSR, which is not impossible), if it doesn't see the need to increase its army tenfold in ten years (a very likely outcome of a White victory, seeing as it would likely butterfly away the Nazi takeover of Germany), then no, it won't do it. Why would you? Military spending is an economic dead end.

 

[Nmale]

If the Confederacy won the Civil War, it would basically be the states that succeeded and the New Mexico territory. I think the Union would keep West Virginia though. I’m not sure about the border states though, they were wildcards in United States politics during the Civil War and vey well may have seceded at any time.

 

[Haydn]

No matter what government arises from White Russia after the civil war (unless it's as totalitarian and expansionist as Stalinist USSR, which is not impossible), if it doesn't see the need to increase its army tenfold in ten years (a very likely outcome of a White victory, seeing as it would likely butterfly away the Nazi takeover of Germany), then no, it won't do it. Why would you? Military spending is an economic dead end.

Well, that's probably right, the Nazis had a large military because they planned to conquer much of Europe and the Soviets had it to defend themselves from reactionary forces (which did come).
Maybe, though, if communism arose in central Europe (Germany, Hungary) then maybe a Tsarist regime would become reactionary and militarize. (though it's difficult having communism in Germany after 1917, the allies would probably intervene, I don't know )

 

[Toraach]

Well, that's probably right, the Nazis had a large military because they planned to conquer much of Europe and the Soviets had it to defend themselves from reactionary forces (which did come).
Maybe, though, if communism arose in central Europe (Germany, Hungary) then maybe a Tsarist regime would become reactionary and militarize. (though it's difficult having communism in Germany after 1917, the allies would probably intervene, I don't know )

The increasing of the soviet military and forced industralization started before Hitler came to power. The expansion was an important thing for Stalin, which was hidden in propaganda by a briliant move: babling about "socialism in one country", instead of "wolrd revolution", just to decrease foreign warrines about the Soviet Union.

For industrialization in white Russia. Augenis wrote a smart thing how much worthly was Stalin's industrialization. I can add that before 1WW the Russian Empire was one of the fastes growing world economies, a country of great economical possibilities, despite some still undeveloped areas, there were thriwing industrial cities, and factories which could produce modern goods. I don't see any reasons why White Russia under a wise leader (a bad economical policy is still possible) could't return to a path of fast growth, which contrary to Stalin's industrialization would be for betterment and enriching common people.

 

[desmirelle]

If the Confederacy won the Civil War, it would basically be the states that succeeded and the New Mexico territory. I think the Union would keep West Virginia though. I’m not sure about the border states though, they were wildcards in United States politics during the Civil War and vey well may have seceded at any time.

Don't forget that Maryland was a southern sympathy state, several prominent Marylanders (Wallis, Duchess of Windsor's grandfather among them) were held without charges during the war. So it would not be far-fetched that Maryland might join the 'CSA', extending the south's northern point.

 

[Urcea]

The Confederacy will have borders that aren't viable for an independent state unless your PoD is in 1861. The most typical one - 1864 Election - basically gives you a picture where the Union controls the entire Mississippi valley, Northern Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, the all-important port of New Orleans, etc. The Confederates have been pushed out of the Western territories. Texas stands on its own. The Union isn't giving all of that back - might as well keep fighting if they have to

 

[Lalli]

About White vicotry on RCW: Whites hadn't exact common idea what after the war would be. Only thing which white generals agreed was overthrown of Bolschevik regime. Even if they succeed on this, I can see Russia facing China style war lord era when generals begin fight from power.

 

[wcv215]

Don't forget that Maryland was a southern sympathy state, several prominent Marylanders (Wallis, Duchess of Windsor's grandfather among them) were held without charges during the war. So it would not be far-fetched that Maryland might join the 'CSA', extending the south's northern point.

When Lee’s army invaded Maryland they found basically no sympathy among the populace.

2. In the US civil war, what will be the borders if the Confederacy held? from looking at a map it seems that the corridor between Virginia and the great lakes is very small in comparison to the HUGE plains to the west, would the union at least annex west Virginia?

If the CSA is lucky they get their OTL borders. If not they lose Tennessee. The territories cannot be taken.

could California have succeeded into its own thing if the union lost? if yes where will the border between California and the Union go? the Rockies? the Mississippi?

No. California had virtually nil secession desire during the war. And no reason to secede either.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Napoleon III was actually extreamly popular, even late in the Empire. Most of his support was in the Normandy, Brittany urban centers and the rural farmers. Ironically, he wasn't well liked in his own capital, Paris. Someone once said (I forgot which book) that Napoleon had three times as many supporters than opponents (such as Republicans or Orelanists), but this ratio was reversed in his own capital. I guess if he survives a violent (as opposed to poisoning) assassination attempt and runs into the streets, he'd better find a soldier since the first civilian than sees him is likely to flag him to the would be assassin.