Paul Martin’s loss wasn’t great for the Liberals. After 13 years in government, and just three years after they were supposed to win a 200+ seat majority government, they now found themselves in the opposition benches. If his loss as Prime Minister and subsequent resignation as Liberal leader had had any benefit, however, it was that the Liberals would now have a chance to inject fresh blood into their party and elect a leader who’d be able to move them beyond the petty Chrétien/Martin feud, and if one thing was clear it was that this time, unlike 2003, the leadership was anyone’s to win.
Immediately following Martin’s resignation the field would being to take shape, the fact that the convention wasn’t until the end of the year evidently not mattering much to anyone. That being said, the first batch of candidates weren’t a particularly inspiring bunch, with Martha Hall Findlay, Hedy Fry, Joe Volpe, Judy Sgro, Carolyn Bennett, Paul Zed, John Godfrey, and Clifford Blais among those entering early and evidently hoping their head starts in the race would allow them to overcome low name recognition/popularity and possibly mount a dark horse bid at the convention. Nevertheless, the attention early on was all focused on the big names of the last ten years – the Allan Rocks, the Frank McKennas, the John Manleys, the Brian Tobins, and so forth – and who among them, if any, would mount a campaign. Those hoping for a battle between heavyweights would not be disappointed; Rock, McKenna, Manley, and Tobin would all enter the race to lead the quote-unquote natural governing party of Canada, along with fellow heavyweights Martin Cauchon, Stéphane Dion, Sheila Copps, and Bob Rae, and with a surplus of candidates and no shortage of frontrunners other rumoured contenders, among them Belinda Stronach, Michael Ignatieff, and Ken Dryden, would all opt to stay on the sidelines.
As the race entered the summer and fall of 2006, much of the lesser-ran candidates would see the writing on the wall and withdraw from the race, while the media had generally agreed that five candidates had solid paths to the leadership: Martin Cauchon, Frank McKenna, Bob Rae, Allan Rock, and Brian Tobin. Cauchon, Rock, and Tobin had all proven themselves during the Chrétien government, had high recognition within the party, and had been seen as competent managers in historically tricky positions. Beyond that, Cauchon was seen as one of the better candidates to appeal to Quebec (a particular advantage given the party was still struggling to move on from the sponsorship scandal), Rock was beloved by the left of the party (though had a bit of a reputation for being a little gaffe-prone), and Tobin had impressed as the former Premier of Newfoundland and endeared himself to federalists through his role as “Captain Canada” during the 1995 Quebec sovereignty referendum (a bit of a double edge sword as polls didn’t exactly show him expanding the Liberal base in la belle province). All, however, had the flaw of being distinct “Chrétien men,” all having exited politics by Martin’s leadership, and with the leadership tensions still fresh and people desperate to move past the feud that had crippled the party this was seen as a distinct disadvantage. Meanwhile, much like Tobin, McKenna and Rae had both made their mark as Premiers during the 90s, though with admittedly different legacies, McKenna being known for his solid decade of leadership and subsequent international service as Canada’s Ambassador to the United States and Rae being known for having the misfortune of governing during the early 90s recession and for his subsequent abandonment of the New Democratic Party in favour of a move to the Liberals. Perhaps understandably, Rae would attract the most attention during the race, if only due to his reputation and the media’s continued interest in his party shift, and though the memory of opposing him in the early 90s had left Liberals still somewhat uneasy about embracing him entirely he nevertheless was able to endear himself to the party during the campaign and, if nothing else, would allow him to secure a place in the party moving forward.
Throughout the fall, as the process of selecting delegates was underway, it became clear that while it was still anyone’s race McKenna was nevertheless the candidate to beat as all eyes now shifted to the convention. As Liberals across the country met in Montreal, the first ballot would provide little drama, other than confirming everyone’s suspicions that McKenna was the arguable frontrunner, as the former Premier of New Brunswick would come out on top with a little over 30% of the delegates backing him. Behind him, Rock had emerged as his strongest challenger with 20% support, followed by Rae, Tobin, Cauchon, Manley, Copps, Dion, Findlay, and Volpe, who in last place would be dropped from subsequent ballots while both Dion and Findlay opted to withdraw seeing little path to victory.
With both Volpe and Findlay throwing their support behind McKenna, small though it may have been, New Brunswick's favourite son would see his support grow by six points on the second ballot as every other candidate struggled to make gains or, in the case of Copps, Manley, and Cauchon, experienced losses instead. Copps would be dropped from subsequent ballots, throwing her support behind fellow left-winger Bob Rae, while Manley would withdraw. Cauchon would opt to fight another ballot, possibly hoping to take advantage of Copps’ withdrawal to gain her left-wing and Quebec supporters, though would instead experience additional losses (his supporters having evidently accepted that he no longer had a path to victory) and be dropped following the third ballot, with McKenna and Rock both making minor gains and Rae experiencing a bit of a surge following Copps’ endorsement to come within 5 delegates of overtaking Rock. Tobin, meanwhile, would see his support drop as his supporters, too, realized his path to victory was getting slimmer and slimmer, and opt to withdraw in the interest of speeding the convention along and ultimately throw his support behind McKenna, leading to a fourth ballot where few had any illusions about the result. With Tobin throwing his support behind McKenna, and McKenna already having a near-20 point lead over Rock and Rae, most people saw the writing on the wall and few were shocked when McKenna was elected leader with a little over 50% of the vote. Both Rae and Rock would quickly throw their support behind McKenna, hoping to end the party’s internal squabbles and pledge their support for his leadership; both would subsequently go a step further and announce their return to politics as star candidates in the next election, in the constituencies of Toronto Centre and Brampton West, respectively. With McKenna now Liberal leader, his focus now turns to facing Stephen Harper head on and trying to return the Liberals to government.
Immediately following Martin’s resignation the field would being to take shape, the fact that the convention wasn’t until the end of the year evidently not mattering much to anyone. That being said, the first batch of candidates weren’t a particularly inspiring bunch, with Martha Hall Findlay, Hedy Fry, Joe Volpe, Judy Sgro, Carolyn Bennett, Paul Zed, John Godfrey, and Clifford Blais among those entering early and evidently hoping their head starts in the race would allow them to overcome low name recognition/popularity and possibly mount a dark horse bid at the convention. Nevertheless, the attention early on was all focused on the big names of the last ten years – the Allan Rocks, the Frank McKennas, the John Manleys, the Brian Tobins, and so forth – and who among them, if any, would mount a campaign. Those hoping for a battle between heavyweights would not be disappointed; Rock, McKenna, Manley, and Tobin would all enter the race to lead the quote-unquote natural governing party of Canada, along with fellow heavyweights Martin Cauchon, Stéphane Dion, Sheila Copps, and Bob Rae, and with a surplus of candidates and no shortage of frontrunners other rumoured contenders, among them Belinda Stronach, Michael Ignatieff, and Ken Dryden, would all opt to stay on the sidelines.
As the race entered the summer and fall of 2006, much of the lesser-ran candidates would see the writing on the wall and withdraw from the race, while the media had generally agreed that five candidates had solid paths to the leadership: Martin Cauchon, Frank McKenna, Bob Rae, Allan Rock, and Brian Tobin. Cauchon, Rock, and Tobin had all proven themselves during the Chrétien government, had high recognition within the party, and had been seen as competent managers in historically tricky positions. Beyond that, Cauchon was seen as one of the better candidates to appeal to Quebec (a particular advantage given the party was still struggling to move on from the sponsorship scandal), Rock was beloved by the left of the party (though had a bit of a reputation for being a little gaffe-prone), and Tobin had impressed as the former Premier of Newfoundland and endeared himself to federalists through his role as “Captain Canada” during the 1995 Quebec sovereignty referendum (a bit of a double edge sword as polls didn’t exactly show him expanding the Liberal base in la belle province). All, however, had the flaw of being distinct “Chrétien men,” all having exited politics by Martin’s leadership, and with the leadership tensions still fresh and people desperate to move past the feud that had crippled the party this was seen as a distinct disadvantage. Meanwhile, much like Tobin, McKenna and Rae had both made their mark as Premiers during the 90s, though with admittedly different legacies, McKenna being known for his solid decade of leadership and subsequent international service as Canada’s Ambassador to the United States and Rae being known for having the misfortune of governing during the early 90s recession and for his subsequent abandonment of the New Democratic Party in favour of a move to the Liberals. Perhaps understandably, Rae would attract the most attention during the race, if only due to his reputation and the media’s continued interest in his party shift, and though the memory of opposing him in the early 90s had left Liberals still somewhat uneasy about embracing him entirely he nevertheless was able to endear himself to the party during the campaign and, if nothing else, would allow him to secure a place in the party moving forward.
Throughout the fall, as the process of selecting delegates was underway, it became clear that while it was still anyone’s race McKenna was nevertheless the candidate to beat as all eyes now shifted to the convention. As Liberals across the country met in Montreal, the first ballot would provide little drama, other than confirming everyone’s suspicions that McKenna was the arguable frontrunner, as the former Premier of New Brunswick would come out on top with a little over 30% of the delegates backing him. Behind him, Rock had emerged as his strongest challenger with 20% support, followed by Rae, Tobin, Cauchon, Manley, Copps, Dion, Findlay, and Volpe, who in last place would be dropped from subsequent ballots while both Dion and Findlay opted to withdraw seeing little path to victory.
With both Volpe and Findlay throwing their support behind McKenna, small though it may have been, New Brunswick's favourite son would see his support grow by six points on the second ballot as every other candidate struggled to make gains or, in the case of Copps, Manley, and Cauchon, experienced losses instead. Copps would be dropped from subsequent ballots, throwing her support behind fellow left-winger Bob Rae, while Manley would withdraw. Cauchon would opt to fight another ballot, possibly hoping to take advantage of Copps’ withdrawal to gain her left-wing and Quebec supporters, though would instead experience additional losses (his supporters having evidently accepted that he no longer had a path to victory) and be dropped following the third ballot, with McKenna and Rock both making minor gains and Rae experiencing a bit of a surge following Copps’ endorsement to come within 5 delegates of overtaking Rock. Tobin, meanwhile, would see his support drop as his supporters, too, realized his path to victory was getting slimmer and slimmer, and opt to withdraw in the interest of speeding the convention along and ultimately throw his support behind McKenna, leading to a fourth ballot where few had any illusions about the result. With Tobin throwing his support behind McKenna, and McKenna already having a near-20 point lead over Rock and Rae, most people saw the writing on the wall and few were shocked when McKenna was elected leader with a little over 50% of the vote. Both Rae and Rock would quickly throw their support behind McKenna, hoping to end the party’s internal squabbles and pledge their support for his leadership; both would subsequently go a step further and announce their return to politics as star candidates in the next election, in the constituencies of Toronto Centre and Brampton West, respectively. With McKenna now Liberal leader, his focus now turns to facing Stephen Harper head on and trying to return the Liberals to government.
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