...though of course if we did want this timeline to keep torturing you then the logical next step would be Frank McKenna beating Jim Prentice in a landslide...
Don't forget Prentice being ousted and Bernier replacing him...
If that’s the case I’ll have to find a suitable ending for Pupatello in my TL
You already found a "suitable ending" for Gerard Kennedy and Bob Rae (my favourite post-Chretien politicos). How much worse could it possibly get?If that’s the case I’ll have to find a suitable ending for Pupatello in my TL
You already found a "suitable ending" for Gerard Kennedy and Bob Rae (my favourite post-Chretien politicos). How much worse could it possibly get?
You have no idea
Seems like we’ve got ourselves a real hostage situation here. Don’t make me bring John Tory into this!If that’s the case I’ll have to find a suitable ending for Pupatello in my TL
Look at them, pretending that's not what they've been planning all along. You're not fooling anyone, guys
The Liberals won similarly big in 1974, 1980, 1993, and 2000, and failed to win a single seat in Calgary on any of those occasions. Baby Trudeau managed to break through in Calgary IOTL 2015 because Calgary was continuing to suffer economically even after nearly a decade of Tory rule, and that plus Trudeau's unabashedly left-wing campaign appealing to the same urbanites who got Clark elected in 2000 got his foot in the door - and even then they only won 2 seats out of 10 instead of 3 out of 8 (and one of those two just barely). I think it's overly optimistic. Especially with Stephane "Green Shift" Dion as Environment Minister. "Absolutely a carbon tax", which I can't imagine not being the proposed solution ITTL as Dion fought so valiantly for it IOTL, just isn't going to win votes in Calgary. To be honest I can see the Liberals being shut out in Alberta even as they form a huge majority elsewhere - again, Papa Trudeau turned the trick in 1974 and 1980.
The carbon tax is another issue altogether. The promise of it being "revenue neutral" I imagine also being repeated ITTL, especially with this being the era of austerity, even though many people (@Electric Monk first among them) would urge the government to instead use that money to invest in mass transit and other carbon-cutting incentives. Although that would of course require cooperation with the provinces.
Speaking of, and since John Tory was just brought up, the Law of Opposing Parties in Parliament Hill and Queen's Park requires that the PCs managed to win the 2007 provincial election, which was indeed very winnable for them IOTL before the whole religious schools funding pledge kerfuffle happened. Indeed, the provincial NDP might see some recovery as well. In fact I'm curious about provincial results in general, not just in Ontario.
I wanted to address this point more seriously. I'll accept your premise but I strongly suspect we'll be seeing a lot of scandals during McKenna's majority term as a result of the kind of complacency and arrogance that can only result from a political party being in power for so long (Harper blip aside) that they perceive themselves as invincible (cf. the Pipeline Debate, "who would stop us?"). After all, they only needed to apply a fresh coat of paint (a new leader) and they're back with another majority! With Layton and the NDP successfully neutralized on their left flank (which they achieved despite Layton's strong personal appeal and McKenna being on the party's right wing) they even have wiggle room now! Who knows what they might be able to get away with? I imagine someone might be tempted to find out...Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968 said:
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Fresh off of winning a majority government in the 2009 election, Frank McKenna and the Liberals would get back to work to steer Canada through the global economic crisis and continue Canada down its grand liberal tradition; certainly, they were aided by the hardships the opposition had been placed in as a result of the 2009 election, as the Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc all found themselves thrust into sudden leadership elections and giving McKenna a comfortable grace period where he would face a weak opposition at best. Not that the opposition wasn’t trying their best, but it’s not like Canadians were ever really going to rally behind the interim Conservative and NDP leaderships of Chuck Strahl and David Christopherson, so through much of 2009 McKenna was able to enjoy a relatively strong honeymoon despite concerns over the economy.
The pressures on McKenna would increase somewhat beginning in late 2009, as the Bloc Québécois kicked off what would be the first of several leadership changes Canada’s major parties would undergo through the next few years. The party, which had recorded its worst result in its history during the 2009 election, had seen long-time leader Gilles Duceppe resign (eventually making the jump to provincial politics), with the contest to succeed him coming down to Joliette MP Pierre Paquette and former provincial MNA and cabinet minister Daniel Paillé. With Paquette getting the backing of the party’s significant left-wing, he would narrowly defeat Paillé after two ballots and be elected party leader on September 7, 2009. The NDP would be the next party to undergo a change in leadership, the race to succeed defeated leader Jack Layton being scheduled for March 7, 2010, where after four ballots Howard Hampton would be declared elected over Winnipeg Centre MP Pat Martin. Hampton, the former leader of the Ontario New Democrats for over a decade, would quickly set about getting into the House of Commons, and would get his chance following the resignation of Windsor—Tecumseh NDP MP Joe Comartin. While the Liberals had hoped to recruit a star candidate to run against him, provincial cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello in particular being heavily courted, this did not ultimately come to pass and Hampton was able to win the ensuing by-election relatively easily.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, would take a bit longer to get their new leadership team in place, waiting until June 2011 as a result of Jim Flaherty’s initial indecisiveness on whether or not he’d be able to remain the party’s leader; this wouldn’t particularly matter much in the long run, though, as McKenna’s majority ensured that the opposition was always going to be fairly powerless in the House of Commons and as a result there was no real rush to elect a new leader.
Aside from having new opposition leaders in place to deal with, by 2011 Frank McKenna was also beginning to feel the natural strains of being in government: cabinet ministers Allan Rock and Susan Whelan, in charge of Foreign Affairs and Industry, respectively, would find themselves embroiled in separate controversies; McKenna would lose one of his top lieutenants, Citizenship and Immigration Minister Maurizio Bevilacqua, following his jump to provincial politics; a controversial pipeline approval, though cutting into Conservative criticism, had irritated some of the Liberal’s left-wing supporters; and a senate expenses scandal threatened to bring down the entire senate, Liberals and Conservatives alike. While there were still good news stories for the government, the economy being at the top of the list but beyond that the success of the 2010 Olympics, McKenna’s generally well received environmental plan, and McKenna’s association with the beloved-in-Canada President of the United States Barack Obama, nevertheless the shine had generally begun to wear off of the McKenna government.
As such it made sense that the Conservatives were feeling optimistic. As 2012 wore on, polls would routinely show a close race, albeit with the Liberals generally ahead but with the Conservatives still in spitting distance and looking likely to reduce McKenna to another minority. Bolstered by Prentice’s personal popularity, the party was able to recruit a series of star candidates, among them former Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino, former British Columbia cabinet minister Kevin Falcon, journalist Danielle Smith, former Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel, Caroline Mulroney (daughter of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney), former Harper-era Minister Lawrence Cannon, and Quebecor CEO Pierre Karl Péladeau. With a strong team behind him and a general message of renewal, Prentice and the Conservatives were itching for a fight.
With the election called for June 12, 2013 and the campaign underway, the main issue would once again prove to be the economy, Prentice accusing McKenna of mismanagement and doing too little too late and Hampton accusing McKenna of an over the top embrace of austerity policies at the expense of social services. Paquette, meanwhile, would find the Bloc Québécois again struggling to gain traction, particularly with McKenna’s strong approval ratings in the province and Prentice making frequent use of Péladeau to appeal to Quebec nationalists. Green Party leader Elizabeth May, meanwhile, would see new life breathed into her party, as disgruntled former Liberals would produce a minor uptick for her party in the polls nationally, and local polls placed her in a close race with controversial Conservative incumbent Larry Miller in the Ontario riding of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound; further adding to Green optimism was the announcement that, after not being invited in 2009, the Greens would once again have a place on the debate stage in 2013.
The debates would ultimately prove to be one of the key moments of the campaign. What started out as a solid performance from Prentice, hitting all his expected marks on the economy, the debate quickly turned into a bit of a disaster for the Conservative leader following an exchange with May wherein he criticized the numbers of her party's environmental plan by dismissively stating “I know math is difficult.” While Prentice would later reiterate that he had been misinterpreted, the remark was met with a negative reaction from the public, viewing it as condescending at best and sexist at worst. Polls following the debate would subsequently show the Conservatives having dropped several points, and though maintaining that he had been misinterpreted Prentice would later apologize for any offence his remarks may have caused. Though the Conservatives would rebound a bit from this headache in the final week of the campaign, the Liberals had increased their lead over the party and looked likely to return to government.
As the results came in, the Liberals would indeed return to government, surpassing most pre-election expectations by winning a second majority government of 163 seats despite dropping over 3 points in the popular vote. For the Conservatives, the results were a bit of a mixed bag; while obviously disheartened over the Liberal re-election, Prentice nevertheless had led the party to solid gains, and despite being a source of some headaches for Conservatives in the last few weeks of the election, Prentice’s performance was still an improvement and the party had no problem giving him another shot in the next election. The results were similarly mixed for the Conservatives’ star candidates: while Cannon, Mulroney, Péladeau, and Smith were all elected, in the ridings of Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, Thornhill, Lac-Saint-Louis, and Macleod, respectively (Péladeau being the big success story, giving the Conservatives their first seat on the island of Montreal since 1988), Fantino, Falcon, and Mandel (the latter running against Liberal cabinet minister Jim Wachowich in Edmonton Centre) all found themselves coming just short of making it to the House of Commons. For the NDP the results were generally a success, making gains across the country and seeing Hampton elected in his home riding of Kenora, though their loss of support in Quebec after the highs of 2009 would nevertheless be a sore spot for them coming out of the election. For the Bloc, Liberal and Conservative gains in Quebec would continue to hound them, causing them to drop even further and be reduced to just 20 seats, while for the Green’s May’s personal popularity would again prove unable to secure her a seat in the House of Commons, coming three points behind the Conservatives in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound. Having failed to get in the House of Commons for the fourth time as party leader, May would subsequently find herself pressured to step aside.
The pressures on McKenna would increase somewhat beginning in late 2009, as the Bloc Québécois kicked off what would be the first of several leadership changes Canada’s major parties would undergo through the next few years. The party, which had recorded its worst result in its history during the 2009 election, had seen long-time leader Gilles Duceppe resign (eventually making the jump to provincial politics), with the contest to succeed him coming down to Joliette MP Pierre Paquette and former provincial MNA and cabinet minister Daniel Paillé. With Paquette getting the backing of the party’s significant left-wing, he would narrowly defeat Paillé after two ballots and be elected party leader on September 7, 2009. The NDP would be the next party to undergo a change in leadership, the race to succeed defeated leader Jack Layton being scheduled for March 7, 2010, where after four ballots Howard Hampton would be declared elected over Winnipeg Centre MP Pat Martin. Hampton, the former leader of the Ontario New Democrats for over a decade, would quickly set about getting into the House of Commons, and would get his chance following the resignation of Windsor—Tecumseh NDP MP Joe Comartin. While the Liberals had hoped to recruit a star candidate to run against him, provincial cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello in particular being heavily courted, this did not ultimately come to pass and Hampton was able to win the ensuing by-election relatively easily.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, would take a bit longer to get their new leadership team in place, waiting until June 2011 as a result of Jim Flaherty’s initial indecisiveness on whether or not he’d be able to remain the party’s leader; this wouldn’t particularly matter much in the long run, though, as McKenna’s majority ensured that the opposition was always going to be fairly powerless in the House of Commons and as a result there was no real rush to elect a new leader.
Aside from having new opposition leaders in place to deal with, by 2011 Frank McKenna was also beginning to feel the natural strains of being in government: cabinet ministers Allan Rock and Susan Whelan, in charge of Foreign Affairs and Industry, respectively, would find themselves embroiled in separate controversies; McKenna would lose one of his top lieutenants, Citizenship and Immigration Minister Maurizio Bevilacqua, following his jump to provincial politics; a controversial pipeline approval, though cutting into Conservative criticism, had irritated some of the Liberal’s left-wing supporters; and a senate expenses scandal threatened to bring down the entire senate, Liberals and Conservatives alike. While there were still good news stories for the government, the economy being at the top of the list but beyond that the success of the 2010 Olympics, McKenna’s generally well received environmental plan, and McKenna’s association with the beloved-in-Canada President of the United States Barack Obama, nevertheless the shine had generally begun to wear off of the McKenna government.
As such it made sense that the Conservatives were feeling optimistic. As 2012 wore on, polls would routinely show a close race, albeit with the Liberals generally ahead but with the Conservatives still in spitting distance and looking likely to reduce McKenna to another minority. Bolstered by Prentice’s personal popularity, the party was able to recruit a series of star candidates, among them former Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino, former British Columbia cabinet minister Kevin Falcon, journalist Danielle Smith, former Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel, Caroline Mulroney (daughter of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney), former Harper-era Minister Lawrence Cannon, and Quebecor CEO Pierre Karl Péladeau. With a strong team behind him and a general message of renewal, Prentice and the Conservatives were itching for a fight.
With the election called for June 12, 2013 and the campaign underway, the main issue would once again prove to be the economy, Prentice accusing McKenna of mismanagement and doing too little too late and Hampton accusing McKenna of an over the top embrace of austerity policies at the expense of social services. Paquette, meanwhile, would find the Bloc Québécois again struggling to gain traction, particularly with McKenna’s strong approval ratings in the province and Prentice making frequent use of Péladeau to appeal to Quebec nationalists. Green Party leader Elizabeth May, meanwhile, would see new life breathed into her party, as disgruntled former Liberals would produce a minor uptick for her party in the polls nationally, and local polls placed her in a close race with controversial Conservative incumbent Larry Miller in the Ontario riding of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound; further adding to Green optimism was the announcement that, after not being invited in 2009, the Greens would once again have a place on the debate stage in 2013.
The debates would ultimately prove to be one of the key moments of the campaign. What started out as a solid performance from Prentice, hitting all his expected marks on the economy, the debate quickly turned into a bit of a disaster for the Conservative leader following an exchange with May wherein he criticized the numbers of her party's environmental plan by dismissively stating “I know math is difficult.” While Prentice would later reiterate that he had been misinterpreted, the remark was met with a negative reaction from the public, viewing it as condescending at best and sexist at worst. Polls following the debate would subsequently show the Conservatives having dropped several points, and though maintaining that he had been misinterpreted Prentice would later apologize for any offence his remarks may have caused. Though the Conservatives would rebound a bit from this headache in the final week of the campaign, the Liberals had increased their lead over the party and looked likely to return to government.
As the results came in, the Liberals would indeed return to government, surpassing most pre-election expectations by winning a second majority government of 163 seats despite dropping over 3 points in the popular vote. For the Conservatives, the results were a bit of a mixed bag; while obviously disheartened over the Liberal re-election, Prentice nevertheless had led the party to solid gains, and despite being a source of some headaches for Conservatives in the last few weeks of the election, Prentice’s performance was still an improvement and the party had no problem giving him another shot in the next election. The results were similarly mixed for the Conservatives’ star candidates: while Cannon, Mulroney, Péladeau, and Smith were all elected, in the ridings of Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, Thornhill, Lac-Saint-Louis, and Macleod, respectively (Péladeau being the big success story, giving the Conservatives their first seat on the island of Montreal since 1988), Fantino, Falcon, and Mandel (the latter running against Liberal cabinet minister Jim Wachowich in Edmonton Centre) all found themselves coming just short of making it to the House of Commons. For the NDP the results were generally a success, making gains across the country and seeing Hampton elected in his home riding of Kenora, though their loss of support in Quebec after the highs of 2009 would nevertheless be a sore spot for them coming out of the election. For the Bloc, Liberal and Conservative gains in Quebec would continue to hound them, causing them to drop even further and be reduced to just 20 seats, while for the Green’s May’s personal popularity would again prove unable to secure her a seat in the House of Commons, coming three points behind the Conservatives in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound. Having failed to get in the House of Commons for the fourth time as party leader, May would subsequently find herself pressured to step aside.
After two Liberal governments as far as I can tell from the text they’ve accomplished literally nothing aside from some good PR on the environment and the hilarious economic mismanagement of austerity in a recession if Howard Hampton is to be believed—just getting lucky with American stimulus and rising oil prices.
That sounds about right lol
That sounds about right lol
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You guys are going to make CT drink himself to death at this rate by making him relive Prentice blowing a shot at winning an election by being condescending to a female party leader in a debate.
Turns out you shouldn't believe TTL Howard Hampton.
Turns out you shouldn't believe TTL Howard Hampton.
Oh I read it. That why I put in the part about American stimulus and rising oil prices giving the Liberals luck. The text simply says “good news stories” not Liberals invest to boost Canada or Liberals expand assistance to the poor, or Liberals targeted lower and middle class tax cuts provides strong consumer spending boost.
I’m open
, but we have no idea what the Liberals have done yet beyond happening to get some good economic newsAlso, got to love the Liberal Party's dominance on the federal level is even crazier with a truncated Harper: in the 82 years between 1935 and TTL's 2017 (when I'm assuming the next federal election is), the Liberals will have held power for about 65 of them. The PCs/Conservatives haven't held power for more than ten years straight since 1921; the Liberals will have had four (1935-1957, 1963-1979, 1993-2006, 2007-2017) such periods of a decade in power since then, with one of those stretches more than doubling the longest post-war PC stretch (22 consecutive years for King's third tenure & St. Laurent versus 9 for Mulroney & Campbell).
Just insane.
Just as long as you don't start smoking crack around people with the ability to record videos and try to get your brother to become premier, you should be fine, buddy.
Just insane.
Just as long as you don't start smoking crack around people with the ability to record videos and try to get your brother to become premier, you should be fine, buddy.
I'm glad you asked!
The state of the Premiers, as of Election Day 2013, is as follows:NL: Kathy Dunderdale (as OTL)
PEI: Robert Ghiz (as OTL)
NS: Darrel Dexter (as OTL)
NB: Bernard Lord (re-elected in 2006 and 2010)
QC: Thomas Mulcair (elected as PLQ leader after the ADQ wins the 2007 Quebec Election, and wins the 2009 Quebec election)
ON: John Tory (still loses 2007, but wins the Haliburton by-election, stays on as leader, and was elected with a minority in 2011)
MB: Greg Sellinger (as OTL)
SK: Brad Wall (Elected with a narrower majority in 2007 due to a stronger Liberal performance, but a majority nonetheless, and was easily re-elected in 2011)
AB: Kevin Taft (Oversaw a significant increase in Liberal support in 2008 despite the PCs winning another majority before winning a majority of his own in 2012)
BC: Mike Farnworth (recently elected in a 69 seat landslide over the Kevin Falcon-led Liberals)
We should probably have mentioned the specific response in the text, apologies. As for how McKenna responds to the GFC, I honestly don't think it's too different from OTL (spending wise, I mean). Spending just made a lot of sense, and even with McKenna's Fiscal Conservatism, I think he wouldn't mind going into deficit.Oh I read it. That why I put in the part about American stimulus and rising oil prices giving the Liberals luck. The text simply says “good news stories” not Liberals invest to boost Canada or Liberals expand assistance to the poor, or Liberals targeted lower and middle class tax cuts provides strong consumer spending boost.
I’m open
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Another excellently detailed set of updates! Nice work all around Hope you don't mind if I continue to quibble...
Mandel: A nice "antidote" to big-city Albertans always running for left-wing parties, and again I'm surprised he didn't win given a) NDP strength in Edmonton and b) how the Liberals are not likely to do well in Alberta, even Edmonton;
Mulroney: An extremely logical choice and federal politics does feel more "right" for her than her OTL choice of provincial, Thornhill is also an ideal choice for her as a riding given Kent's OTL success there;
Cannon: Already retirement age, odd that he'd mount a comeback, though at least it's in his old stomping grounds (huge mistake for him to have run in Pontiac IMO, given Conservative strength in the Capitale-Nationale);
Peladeau: Obviously gunning for the right-leaning soft separatists. Odd that you'd put him in such a genteel Anglophone riding even though I admit it is a (relatively) strong Tory riding in Montreal. I do wonder if a reasonably popular provincial Liberal MNA from the West Island might be convinced to run in any scenario.
But I do have to ask: why is May in the debates at all? The only explanation is that someone defected to the Greens (which someone - Bruce Hyer - did IOTL before 2008, which is why she participated, and even then it was a very near thing. Because in 2011 she didn't, though she did in 2015 because she was an incumbent MP).
Also odd to see the Liberals doing so well when they have to own their federal counterparts' missteps (one reason the NDP emerged as the Opposition IOTL in the 1970s and 1980s, the Liberals only catching on after the federal Tories had been in power for a while).
Riding results:
Quebec: Odd to see the Liberals doing so well in the Tory heartland, winning seats they've not even managed IOTL (Beauport--Limoilou, Megantic--L'Erable) presumably because they're coming up the middle between the Tories and the Bloc? I see Kamouraska--Riviere-du-Loup went Tory this time, presumably Genereux edged it out second try as IOTL. It's weird to see the Tories took Chicoutimi in 2007 but haven't won it since. A "quirky" riding to be sure. Liberals picking up Saint-Jean is a big victory for them.
Ontario: Tories picking up Newmarket--Aurora is interesting. A few surprising Liberal holds: Haldimand--Norfolk (Hoskins still?), Prince Edward--Hastings (Kramp must have landed on his feet provincially as IOTL, even still, tough for the Liberals to hold). The NDP gaining three seats in the North looks good for them although the Soo not going their way is funny. I take it Whelan either resigned or went down to defeat given that the NDP picked up Essex, as you hinted given her scandal.
Alberta: Again I think you overestimate Liberal strength here even though it's just Calgary Northeast and Edmonton Centre now.
I continue to be impressed with the pace and the detail and the strong sense of collaboration, keep up the good work both of you!
Hope you don't mind if I continue to quibble...I had a feeling it was going to be Hampton. Solid choice for the NDP, especially if they did better ITTL 2007 provincially (as is likely) - getting say 16-17 seats instead of the 10 of OTL. That's the kind of momentum that would make Hampton a frontrunner and likely to be courted by the federal NDP, especially as he represents an area where the NDP has lots of room for growth (Northern Ontario).
Are we to assume that he ran to replace McGuinty as provincial Liberal leader given their loss in the 2011 election?True Grit said:
Canadians loathed the GST and yet they're just fine with the carbon tax. Go figure!True Grit said:
True Grit said:
Mandel: A nice "antidote" to big-city Albertans always running for left-wing parties, and again I'm surprised he didn't win given a) NDP strength in Edmonton and b) how the Liberals are not likely to do well in Alberta, even Edmonton;
Mulroney: An extremely logical choice and federal politics does feel more "right" for her than her OTL choice of provincial, Thornhill is also an ideal choice for her as a riding given Kent's OTL success there;
Cannon: Already retirement age, odd that he'd mount a comeback, though at least it's in his old stomping grounds (huge mistake for him to have run in Pontiac IMO, given Conservative strength in the Capitale-Nationale);
Peladeau: Obviously gunning for the right-leaning soft separatists. Odd that you'd put him in such a genteel Anglophone riding even though I admit it is a (relatively) strong Tory riding in Montreal. I do wonder if a reasonably popular provincial Liberal MNA from the West Island might be convinced to run in any scenario.
Oh look, it's Prentice who made the gaffe, not the complacent incumbent McKenna. What a shockTrue Grit said:
But I do have to ask: why is May in the debates at all? The only explanation is that someone defected to the Greens (which someone - Bruce Hyer - did IOTL before 2008, which is why she participated, and even then it was a very near thing. Because in 2011 she didn't, though she did in 2015 because she was an incumbent MP).Very unsurprising to see a Liberal majority (though I am surprised to see them under 40%), and the Tories being held below 100 seats. Looks very much like another 1997 situation. Prentice can hold on but it won't be without complaint. His debate gaffe will enter the annals of Canadian legend, to be brought up every election cycle just like "you had an option, sir" and (IOTL) "if you don't show up for work, you don't get a promotion".True Grit said:
Third time. Harris was still leader in 2006. ITTL, 2007, 2009, and 2013 were her three elections as Leader. Doubt she'd be facing any serious calls to step down, though. The media adores her (this can't be overstated) and she has few obvious heirs or challengers. Maybe someone in the provincial BC Green machine.True Grit said:
Agreed, how Hampton and the NDP and the Canadian left in general are likely to define successful economic stewardship differs completely from the "orthodox" or "mainstream" viewpoint. Look at the UK c. 2015, consistently described as one of Europe's biggest success stories despite a great deal of infrastructural problems.
And thank you so much for the detailed response!I'm glad you asked!
This is a sop for @CanadianTory, isn't it. Even if it isn't, Lord's name is going to be bandied about for Tory leader for sure, as it was IOTL (as the counterweight to McKenna), which should be interesting.Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968 said:
A solid choice, I like this one.Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968 said:
Or, y'know, you could have him beat Wynne in 2007, she didn't win by that much (it was only 50-40) and don't let her clinging to her seat IOTL 2018 deceive you, Don Valley West is the ultimate anti-populist seat and an NDP black hole. Plus it replicates 1990 (the Tories gaining a toehold in Metro/the 416) because they're probably also picking up Eglinton--Lawrence (they only lost by 5 IOTL) and maybe Willowdale (municipal councillor David Shiner ran there and did top 35% and hold his Liberal opponent below a majority).Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968 said:
This of course violates the First Law of Albertan Politics (once out of power, never again returned) and in favour of what party - the Liberals?! Shock!Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968 said:
Also odd to see the Liberals doing so well when they have to own their federal counterparts' missteps (one reason the NDP emerged as the Opposition IOTL in the 1970s and 1980s, the Liberals only catching on after the federal Tories had been in power for a while). Oooh, neat. Did the Greens win any seats? What about the Conservatives? The NDP always does best with a divided right in BC, so I would assume so. Maybe Cummins runs a halfway-decent campaign this time and actually runs a bigger slate of candidates.Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968 said:
Riding results:
Quebec: Odd to see the Liberals doing so well in the Tory heartland, winning seats they've not even managed IOTL (Beauport--Limoilou, Megantic--L'Erable) presumably because they're coming up the middle between the Tories and the Bloc? I see Kamouraska--Riviere-du-Loup went Tory this time, presumably Genereux edged it out second try as IOTL. It's weird to see the Tories took Chicoutimi in 2007 but haven't won it since. A "quirky" riding to be sure. Liberals picking up Saint-Jean is a big victory for them.
Ontario: Tories picking up Newmarket--Aurora is interesting. A few surprising Liberal holds: Haldimand--Norfolk (Hoskins still?), Prince Edward--Hastings (Kramp must have landed on his feet provincially as IOTL, even still, tough for the Liberals to hold). The NDP gaining three seats in the North looks good for them although the Soo not going their way is funny. I take it Whelan either resigned or went down to defeat given that the NDP picked up Essex, as you hinted given her scandal.
Alberta: Again I think you overestimate Liberal strength here even though it's just Calgary Northeast and Edmonton Centre now.
I continue to be impressed with the pace and the detail and the strong sense of collaboration, keep up the good work both of you!
Whether he wins or not I'll leave a mystery, but yup that was what I was hinting at.
This is more based on the rumours ahead of 2015 IOTL that he was being courted to launch a comeback for the Conservatives and run in a Quebec City riding.
Third general election, yes, but don't forget she ran unsuccessfully in the 2006 London North-Centre by-election. As for her leadership, worth noting that it was under somewhat of a strain in 2010 IOTL (here and here are some good articles from the time about the infighting that was beginning to bloom in the party).
As an aside, I think I speak for @Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968 and myself when I say we appreciate your comments, the attention the detail is always impressive.