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OTL: on January 12, 1945 the Soviets opened their great penultimate offensive on the Eastern Front. 2.2 million troops, 4500 tanks and literally tens of thousands of heavy guns struck with massive force against the German center in Poland. A day later a secondary offensive opened up in East Prussia.

The Vistula-Oder Offensive was a massive success; within a month it had taken pretty much all of what's now Poland, and had advanced to within 70 km of Berlin. More to the point, it had smashed Germany's offensive capacity beyond repair. The Wehrmacht would still be able to mount local offensives -- most notably Operation Solstice in Pomerania, and Operation Spring Awakening in Hungary -- but these were small-scale operations.

Part of the reason for the success was the weather. By this time the Soviets outnumbered the Germans better than 2-1, and the Red Army had massive superiority in both quality and quantity of arms. But the weather -- clear and icy cold -- played to their strengths, allowing them to maneuver freely and attack the Germans without respite.

Okay, so. Let's say that a butterfly in Papua New Guinea flaps its wings this way instead of that, with the result that the weather over east central Europe is dramatically different. January 12 is clear and fine, but the 13th is gloomy and chill, and that evening the first flakes start falling. By the 14th all of Poland and East Prussia is undergoing a massive three-day blizzard that dumps nearly a meter of snow across the region. Heavy winds and limited visibility keep planes grounded for days, while armor and guns are slowed to a crawl or rendered useless. The weather remains dismal through the rest of January, with unseasonably heavy snowfall and intermittent blizzard conditions.

Now what?

-- I don't actually think this will make a huge difference. It'll slow the Soviets down a bit, sure. But nothing's going to stop them at this point. And Hitler is now so erratic that he's not going to be able to leverage the situation to Germany's advantage. It won't affect the occupation lines -- those were decided at Yalta -- nor will it have any significant effect on the final outcome.

Or so ISTM. Thoughts?


Doug M.
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