Heavy snow on the Eastern Front, January 1945

OTL: on January 12, 1945 the Soviets opened their great penultimate offensive on the Eastern Front. 2.2 million troops, 4500 tanks and literally tens of thousands of heavy guns struck with massive force against the German center in Poland. A day later a secondary offensive opened up in East Prussia.

The Vistula-Oder Offensive was a massive success; within a month it had taken pretty much all of what's now Poland, and had advanced to within 70 km of Berlin. More to the point, it had smashed Germany's offensive capacity beyond repair. The Wehrmacht would still be able to mount local offensives -- most notably Operation Solstice in Pomerania, and Operation Spring Awakening in Hungary -- but these were small-scale operations.

Part of the reason for the success was the weather. By this time the Soviets outnumbered the Germans better than 2-1, and the Red Army had massive superiority in both quality and quantity of arms. But the weather -- clear and icy cold -- played to their strengths, allowing them to maneuver freely and attack the Germans without respite.

Okay, so. Let's say that a butterfly in Papua New Guinea flaps its wings this way instead of that, with the result that the weather over east central Europe is dramatically different. January 12 is clear and fine, but the 13th is gloomy and chill, and that evening the first flakes start falling. By the 14th all of Poland and East Prussia is undergoing a massive three-day blizzard that dumps nearly a meter of snow across the region. Heavy winds and limited visibility keep planes grounded for days, while armor and guns are slowed to a crawl or rendered useless. The weather remains dismal through the rest of January, with unseasonably heavy snowfall and intermittent blizzard conditions.

Now what?

-- I don't actually think this will make a huge difference. It'll slow the Soviets down a bit, sure. But nothing's going to stop them at this point. And Hitler is now so erratic that he's not going to be able to leverage the situation to Germany's advantage. It won't affect the occupation lines -- those were decided at Yalta -- nor will it have any significant effect on the final outcome.

Or so ISTM. Thoughts?


Doug M.
 
I think:

1. You're right. Germany is still doomed and they're going to lose. But either this will simply be moved back a month or so (June surrender with the Soviets occupying Berlin) or:
2. It's possible that the Western Allies *need* to advance further as the Soviets are struggling. The Stars and Stripes over Berlin (or the Union Flag?)? I don't think either is likely but it could be interesting.

The only thing I would add is that if the Western Allies take a lot more territory, and possibly Berlin, then Yalta may get 'forgotten about' a bit.
 
Might it be possible that the West manages to liberate Prague? With western troops in at least Bohemia-Moravia, the coup that dragged the country behind the Iron Curtain could be avoidable.

The Soviets might still demand their pound of flesh, and Slovakia could be left independent but under occupation as a minor Axis ally.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Even if the US and British forces have to fall back to preagreed lines when the Soviets come along, if the US, British, or even Canadian or French forces have to go into what will become Soviet controlled territory and clear out German units because of a delay on the Soviet side, this could still be a big propaganda coop for for the west in the post war world.

Yes the Soviets control that territory now, but it took the might of the US and the British to clear that area to begin with. A symbolic victory if nothing else.

That and even if the western Allies withdraw from Soviet controlled territory, if they are allowed in the areas for even a couple of weeks, as long as no Soviet troops are around, I wouldn't be surprised of some US or British units take the time to move a few odd things out of the area to keep the Soviets from getting some equipment. They can write some stuff off as having to shell a building or bunker or something to take out a sniper or some junk.

That and if the US or British control an area for a few weeks, that might allow some people that IOTL would have been stuck under the Soviets to pack up the extended family and head west.

Would there have been any gold reserves perhaps in Prague or any other larger German towns that the US or British could have entered if they had to continue moving east for a while?
 
That and even if the western Allies withdraw from Soviet controlled territory, if they are allowed in the areas for even a couple of weeks, as long as no Soviet troops are around, I wouldn't be surprised of some US or British units take the time to move a few odd things out of the area to keep the Soviets from getting some equipment. They can write some stuff off as having to shell a building or bunker or something to take out a sniper or some junk.

Hmm, what does it mean for the USSR if it has less access to German R&D, schematics, and scientists, which instead are neatly snatched up by the British and Americans? I suppose Stalin will just see to it that most of that information is stolen via espionage anyway, but there must have been some materials and information that were crucial to Soviet advancement in some fields.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Hmm, what does it mean for the USSR if it has less access to German R&D, schematics, and scientists, which instead are neatly snatched up by the British and Americans? I suppose Stalin will just see to it that most of that information is stolen via espionage anyway, but there must have been some materials and information that were crucial to Soviet advancement in some fields.

I don't know what all was where in Germany, so even if the US and British forces move say 50 miles further east to clear out German units, they might not find anything worthwhile, or they might find something that gets them to the Moon a couple of years sooner.

One thing that I would be curious about, might some German officers or bureaucrats that in OTL would have killed themselves or been killed by the Soviets end up surviving, at least for a while, if they surrender to US or British or French forces.
 
A metre of snow will slow the Soviets only a little, because remember, they built their tanks with the Russian Winter in mind.
 
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